【摘要】：教育和就業(yè)是人類社會(huì)生存和發(fā)展的兩大基礎(chǔ)性活動(dòng),兩者存在須臾相生的天然聯(lián)系。在不同的歷史發(fā)展時(shí)期,由于這種聯(lián)系發(fā)生的外部環(huán)境不同,其表現(xiàn)形態(tài)也有所差別。自我國(guó)改革開(kāi)放以后,教育投資持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),教育投資結(jié)構(gòu)呈現(xiàn)新的特征；與此同時(shí)的就業(yè)現(xiàn)實(shí)卻是,我們面臨著巨大的就業(yè)壓力,特別是伴隨高等教育規(guī)模迅速擴(kuò)展,出現(xiàn)了大學(xué)畢業(yè)生就業(yè)困難的局面,這使得人們開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑教育投資的人力資本功能。因此,這樣的“悖論”需要人們對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期兩者的關(guān)系問(wèn)題進(jìn)行理性的考察。 本文的研究主要回答兩個(gè)問(wèn)題：一是我國(guó)教育投資短期和長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)對(duì)就業(yè)量和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生了哪些影響?教育投資存在哪些就業(yè)效應(yīng)?二是我國(guó)教育投資通過(guò)什么中間效應(yīng)影響就業(yè)?找到了這一中介變量就找到了通過(guò)教育投資調(diào)節(jié)就業(yè)量的“按鈕”。 本文研究主體內(nèi)容共分為四個(gè)部分： 第一部分為教育投資就業(yè)效應(yīng)的理論研究。包括第一章文獻(xiàn)綜述和第二章教育投資就業(yè)效應(yīng)的理論分析。關(guān)于教育投資與就業(yè)關(guān)系的研究,西方理論界爭(zhēng)論最激烈的是人力資本理論與以篩選理論和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)分割理論為代表的信號(hào)理論。這一部分研究了兩大理論流派對(duì)于教育投資與就業(yè)關(guān)系的爭(zhēng)論焦點(diǎn)主要在兩個(gè)方面,一是教育投資是否對(duì)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生了積極影響,是教育投資通過(guò)什么機(jī)制影響就業(yè)。一言以蔽之,兩大流派針?shù)h相對(duì)的爭(zhēng)論形成了教育投資影響就業(yè)的兩種功能的認(rèn)識(shí)：人力資本投資功能和信號(hào)篩選功能。 第二章討論了教育投資就業(yè)效應(yīng)的理論框架。首先,基于西方的人力資本理論,將人力資本作為特定生產(chǎn)要素嵌入到生產(chǎn)函數(shù)模型中,分析教育投資形成的人力資本要素對(duì)就業(yè)總量的影響,包括短期和長(zhǎng)期的影響,以及對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化調(diào)整。本文認(rèn)為,教育投資的人力資本效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生存在時(shí)滯期,教育投資在短期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生對(duì)就業(yè)的替代效應(yīng),長(zhǎng)時(shí)期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生就業(yè)促進(jìn)的拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)；教育投資的增長(zhǎng)不僅影響就業(yè)總量,而且對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化調(diào)整產(chǎn)生影響。另一方面,本文基于分割的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)理論,分析了相對(duì)基礎(chǔ)教育層次具備“信號(hào)”功能的高等教育投資增長(zhǎng)對(duì)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的就業(yè)影響復(fù)雜的情況。本文認(rèn)為,在分割的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中,高等教育投資既可能增長(zhǎng)主要?jiǎng)趧?dòng)力市場(chǎng)和次要?jiǎng)趧?dòng)力市場(chǎng)這兩類市場(chǎng)的就業(yè)量,也可能加重兩類市場(chǎng)的失業(yè)率,這與高等教育投資規(guī)模,以及現(xiàn)代部門生產(chǎn)增長(zhǎng)速度緊密相關(guān)。就我國(guó)的情況來(lái)看,高校大規(guī)模擴(kuò)招后,高等教育的擴(kuò)張速度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)快于勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)上需求的增長(zhǎng)速度,短期內(nèi)將造成就業(yè)壓力,加劇了主要?jiǎng)趧?dòng)力市場(chǎng)的供需矛盾,極端情況可能出現(xiàn)大面積的“過(guò)度教育”情況。 第二部分為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)量和就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響的經(jīng)驗(yàn)檢驗(yàn),包括第三章和第四章。這一部分主要運(yùn)用計(jì)量模型回答第一個(gè)問(wèn)題,即：教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)總量在長(zhǎng)短期內(nèi)的影響。同時(shí),這一部分也分析了教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)變化產(chǎn)生了怎樣的影響。第三章實(shí)證研究我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)總量的影響,考察了教育投資短期和長(zhǎng)期的就業(yè)效應(yīng),包括教育投資的就業(yè)拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)、就業(yè)時(shí)滯效應(yīng)、就業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)和對(duì)潛在就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)。首先,在分析我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期教育投資和就業(yè)的特征基礎(chǔ)上,運(yùn)用彈性這一經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)工具初步分析就業(yè)對(duì)教育投資的依存關(guān)系和特征。其次,運(yùn)用分位數(shù)回歸模型分析了經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期教育投資的就業(yè)拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果說(shuō)明,我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期教育投資的當(dāng)期就業(yè)拉動(dòng)作用越來(lái)越小,近10年教育投資的就業(yè)拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)比改革開(kāi)放初期減少了約20%。再次,運(yùn)用時(shí)滯模型分析我國(guó)教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)影響的時(shí)滯效應(yīng)。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明：教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)的影響通常滯后2期,即當(dāng)前的教育投資的就業(yè)效應(yīng)會(huì)滯后2期后才產(chǎn)生作用；當(dāng)期和前1期的教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)人員數(shù)有積極的促進(jìn)作用,這是因?yàn)榻逃顿Y具有消費(fèi)性生產(chǎn)功能。當(dāng)期的教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)產(chǎn)生拉動(dòng)效應(yīng),并且持續(xù)影響到滯后1期；而前2期的教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)人員數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)有抑制作用,是因?yàn)榻逃顿Y在短時(shí)期內(nèi)產(chǎn)生了對(duì)就業(yè)的替代效應(yīng)。第四,運(yùn)用協(xié)整方程和向量自回歸模型分析教育投資的就業(yè)動(dòng)態(tài)效應(yīng)。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)：短時(shí)期內(nèi)教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)產(chǎn)生替代效應(yīng)；長(zhǎng)時(shí)期內(nèi)教育投資增長(zhǎng)將促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng),但教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)變化的解釋力較小。第五,運(yùn)用Hodrick-Prescott濾波模型分析教育投資對(duì)潛在就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的拉動(dòng)效應(yīng)。研究結(jié)果表明：教育投資并不能短期對(duì)就業(yè)缺口產(chǎn)生影響,實(shí)證結(jié)果表明這一時(shí)期是5年；然而,從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,教育投資增長(zhǎng)有利于減小就業(yè)缺口,盡管教育投資對(duì)彌補(bǔ)就業(yè)缺口的解釋力較小。最后,分析了公共教育投資和非公共教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)的不同影響。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),無(wú)論長(zhǎng)期均衡模型時(shí)滯模型均表明,總體上看,公共教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)的積極作用比非公共教育投資顯著。這因?yàn)閮烧咄顿Y重點(diǎn)不同,形成不同的教育投資影響就業(yè)的功能,進(jìn)而對(duì)就業(yè)產(chǎn)生不同的效應(yīng)。 第四章是經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期的教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)影響的經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整沒(méi)有起到全面的積極作用,無(wú)論在短期內(nèi)還是長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),教育投資的增長(zhǎng)沒(méi)有帶來(lái)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人員數(shù)的增長(zhǎng)。這其中既有教育投資總量投資不足的問(wèn)題,也有教育投資結(jié)構(gòu)的問(wèn)題。從促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的目標(biāo)來(lái)看,基礎(chǔ)教育比高等教育投資的貢獻(xiàn)更優(yōu)。從長(zhǎng)期看,農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)教育投資對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)移產(chǎn)生積極影響,盡管其正向作用微弱；基礎(chǔ)教育投資對(duì)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)和第三產(chǎn)業(yè)的就業(yè)人員增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生微弱的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)。相比高等教育投資對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的影響來(lái)看,基礎(chǔ)教育投資變化拉動(dòng)二三產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)增長(zhǎng)的作用更明顯。研究同時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期內(nèi)由高等教育投資增長(zhǎng)引起的就業(yè)壓力不是長(zhǎng)期的,而是存在于一定的時(shí)期,高等教育投資既有促進(jìn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)優(yōu)化就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的階段,也有產(chǎn)生就業(yè)替代的階段,兩種效應(yīng)交互出現(xiàn)。高等教育投資對(duì)農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力的非農(nóng)就業(yè),以及第二產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人員數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)的對(duì)就業(yè)的替代效應(yīng)更顯著,而促進(jìn)第三產(chǎn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的作用比較顯著。 第三部分研究教育投資與就業(yè)之間的中介效應(yīng)問(wèn)題,這是第五章的研究?jī)?nèi)容,主要回答第二個(gè)問(wèn)題。在運(yùn)用生產(chǎn)函數(shù)進(jìn)行數(shù)量推導(dǎo)基礎(chǔ)上,構(gòu)建了本章關(guān)于中介變量的分析框架。首先,討論經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率作為教育投資影響就業(yè)的中介變量的不確定性問(wèn)題。然后,研究了工資彈性作為教育投資就業(yè)效應(yīng)的中介變量問(wèn)題�？紤]到我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期工資彈性發(fā)揮作用的外部條件是勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)化程度較高,將實(shí)證的樣本期分為1978-2008年和1993-2008年兩個(gè)期間進(jìn)行中介變量的實(shí)證研究,以便比較不同勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)化水平下,工資彈性作為中介變量對(duì)教育投資與就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)關(guān)系的影響。實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型期的工資彈性沒(méi)有起到中介效應(yīng),但是,1993-2008年樣本期的回歸模型中工資彈性中介效應(yīng)顯著性的概率已經(jīng)接近0.10的顯著水平,比1978-1993年的工資彈性作為中介效應(yīng)的顯著性提高了近5倍。教育投資對(duì)就業(yè)影響的中介效應(yīng)研究結(jié)論,一方面解釋了我國(guó)教育投資就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)產(chǎn)生的作用較小,并且未能與就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整形成全面良性互動(dòng)關(guān)系的原因,是由于工資彈性的中介效應(yīng)不顯著。這樣的研究結(jié)論暗含著不同于人力資本理論和信號(hào)篩選理論所主張的政策含義。人力資本理論主張教育投資通過(guò)提高了勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率進(jìn)而促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和就業(yè)增長(zhǎng),其政策含義是提倡加大教育投資力度,強(qiáng)調(diào)通過(guò)教育和培訓(xùn)提高受教育勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率,實(shí)現(xiàn)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)。爭(zhēng)鋒相對(duì)的教育信號(hào)篩選理論主張,教育投資對(duì)整體就業(yè)水平?jīng)]有影響,在分割的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)中教育僅僅是個(gè)篩選的機(jī)制,其政策含義是促進(jìn)就業(yè)不能依賴教育投資。本文的研究結(jié)論豐富了上述爭(zhēng)論,同時(shí)也提示我們,為了實(shí)現(xiàn)教育投資的就業(yè)效應(yīng),可以通過(guò)調(diào)節(jié)中介變量工資彈性得以實(shí)現(xiàn),而中介效應(yīng)功能得以實(shí)現(xiàn)需要其它條件的制約,如勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)化程度。從我國(guó)的實(shí)際情況來(lái)看,要發(fā)揮中介效應(yīng)的作用與兩個(gè)條件有關(guān),其一是來(lái)自人力資本貢獻(xiàn)的勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率持續(xù)提高,其二是要有比較完善的、連續(xù)的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng),為不同人力資本的勞動(dòng)力在行業(yè)、產(chǎn)業(yè)和部門之間無(wú)障礙流動(dòng)創(chuàng)造條件。 第四部分為對(duì)策建議部分。本文認(rèn)為,首先必須要把教育投資與就業(yè)結(jié)合在一起來(lái)考慮,實(shí)施就業(yè)優(yōu)先的教育投資戰(zhàn)略。如果不能實(shí)現(xiàn)就業(yè)目標(biāo)的教育投資則不具備生產(chǎn)性,只能體現(xiàn)出消費(fèi)性的屬性。據(jù)此,本文提出如下對(duì)策：實(shí)施積極的教育投資政策,提高勞動(dòng)力素質(zhì),發(fā)揮教育投資人力資本功能,促進(jìn)我國(guó)就業(yè)困境的解決；加強(qiáng)基礎(chǔ)教育投資,尤其加強(qiáng)農(nóng)村基礎(chǔ)教育投資,縮小城鄉(xiāng)人力資本差距；建立以需求為導(dǎo)向的高等教育投資,保持與我國(guó)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相適度的高等規(guī)模,防止過(guò)度教育長(zhǎng)時(shí)期大規(guī)模發(fā)生；提高勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)化程度,主要從制度上減少分割性,構(gòu)建提高工資彈性的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)環(huán)境。
[Abstract]:Education and employment are two basic activities for the survival and development of human society, and there are natural links between them. In different historical periods, because of the different external environment, the manifestations of these links are also different. At the same time, the employment reality is that we are facing enormous employment pressure, especially with the rapid expansion of the scale of higher education, the employment of university graduates is difficult, which makes people begin to question the human capital function of education investment. A rational study of the relationship between them.
This paper mainly answers two questions: firstly, what impact does education investment have on employment quantity and employment structure in the short and long term? What employment effect does education investment have? Secondly, through what intermediate effect does education investment affect employment? Finding this intermediary variable, we can find the adjustment through education investment. The volume of the "button".
The main contents of the study are divided into four parts.
The first part is the theoretical study of the employment effect of educational investment, including the first chapter literature review and the second chapter theoretical analysis of the employment effect of educational investment. In this part, the author studies the two major schools'debates on the relationship between education investment and employment mainly in two aspects. One is whether education investment has a positive impact on employment growth, and the mechanism through which education investment affects employment. The two functions of employment: human capital investment function and signal screening function.
The second chapter discusses the theoretical framework of the employment effect of educational investment. Firstly, based on the western human capital theory, human capital is embedded into the production function model as a specific factor of production, and the impact of human capital factors formed by educational investment on the total employment is analyzed, including the short-term and long-term impact, as well as the optimization of employment structure. This paper argues that there is a time lag in the human capital effect of education investment, that is, the substitution effect of education investment on employment in the short term and the pull effect of employment promotion in the long term. The growth of education investment not only affects the total employment, but also affects the optimization and adjustment of employment structure. Based on the theory of labor market segmentation, this paper analyzes the complicated situation that the growth of investment in higher education, which has the function of "signal" relative to the basic education level, has an impact on the employment of the labor market. Employment may also aggravate the unemployment rate in the two markets, which is closely related to the scale of investment in higher education and the growth rate of production in the modern sector. This has exacerbated the contradiction between supply and demand in the main labor market, and in extreme cases there may be a large area of "over-education".
The second part is the empirical test of the impact of education investment on employment and employment structure in China's economic transition period, including the third and fourth chapters. Chapter three empirically studies the impact of education investment on the total employment in the period of economic transition in China, examines the short-term and long-term employment effects of education investment, including the employment pull effect of education investment, employment lag effect, employment dynamic effect and the promotion effect on the potential employment growth. On the basis of the characteristics of education investment and employment in China's economic transition period, this paper uses elasticity as an economic tool to analyze the dependence and characteristics of employment on education investment. Thirdly, the time-lag model is used to analyze the time-lag effect of China's education investment on employment. The empirical results show that the impact of education investment on employment usually lags behind two periods, that is, the employment effect of current education investment. The education investment in the current period and the first period has a positive effect on the number of employed persons, because the education investment has the function of consumptive production. Fourthly, we use the co-integration equation and vector autoregressive model to analyze the dynamic effect of education investment on employment. Fifthly, the Hodrick-Prescott filter model is used to analyze the pull effect of education investment on the potential employment growth. The results show that education investment can not affect the employment gap in the short term, the empirical results show that this period is five years; however, in the long run, the growth of education investment has some effects. Finally, the different effects of public education investment and non-public education investment on employment are analyzed. It is found that both long-term equilibrium model and time-lag model show that, on the whole, public education investment has a more positive effect on employment than non-public education. This is because the two investment priorities are different, forming a different education investment affect the function of employment, and then have different effects on employment.
The fourth chapter is the empirical study on the impact of education investment on employment structure in the period of economic transition.The study finds that education investment has not played a positive role in the adjustment of employment structure. In the long run, rural basic education investment has a positive impact on the transfer of agricultural labor force, although its positive effect is weak. Compared with the impact of higher education investment on the adjustment of employment structure in China, the change of investment in basic education plays a more significant role in stimulating the growth of employment in secondary and tertiary industries. The long-term employment pressure is not long-term, but exists in a certain period of time. Higher education investment not only promotes employment growth and optimizes employment structure, but also produces employment substitution stage. The two effects interact. Higher education investment on non-agricultural employment of rural labor force, and the number of employment personnel in the secondary industry increases. The substitution effect for employment is more significant, while the promotion of employment growth in the third industry is more significant.
The third part studies the intermediary effect between education investment and employment, which is the research content of the fifth chapter, mainly answering the second question. On the basis of quantitative deduction using production function, this chapter constructs the analysis framework of intermediary variable. First, it discusses the economic growth, labor productivity as education investment affects employment. Secondly, this paper studies the problem of wage elasticity as an intermediary variable of the effect of education investment and employment. Considering that the external condition of wage elasticity in China's economic transition period is the high degree of labor marketization, the empirical sample period is divided into 1978-2008 and 1993-2008 for intermediary change. Empirical study shows that wage elasticity has no mediating effect on the relationship between education investment and employment growth in China's economic transition period, but the mediating effect of wage elasticity is significant in the regression model of the sample period 1993-2008. The probability of sex has approached the significant level of 0.10, which is nearly five times higher than that of the wage elasticity from 1978 to 1993. The conclusion of the study on the intermediary effect of education investment on employment explains that the employment growth of education investment in China has little effect, and it has not been able to form a comprehensive benign employment structure adjustment. This conclusion implies different policy implications from those advocated by human capital theory and signal screening theory. Human capital theory advocates that education investment promotes economic growth and employment growth by increasing labor productivity. We advocate increasing investment in education, emphasizing increasing the productivity of educated labor through education and training, and realizing employment growth.The competing theory of educational signal screening holds that education investment has no effect on the overall employment level, and education is only a screening mechanism in the separated labor market. Its policy implication is that employment cannot be promoted. The conclusion of this study enriches the above-mentioned controversy, and also suggests that in order to realize the employment effect of education investment, wage elasticity can be realized by adjusting the intermediary variable, while the intermediary effect can be realized under the restriction of other conditions, such as the degree of labor market. The role of intermediary effect is related to two conditions, one is the continuous improvement of labor productivity from the contribution of human capital, the other is to have a relatively perfect and continuous labor market to create conditions for the barrier-free flow of labor among industries, industries and departments with different human capital.
The fourth part is the countermeasure and suggestion part.This article thinks that we must first consider the education investment and employment together and implement the strategy of education investment with priority of employment.If we can't realize the goal of employment, the education investment will not be productive and can only reflect the attributes of consumption.Accordingly, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures:implement actively. Education investment policy should improve the quality of labor force, give full play to the function of human capital in education investment, and promote the solution of employment dilemma in China; strengthen investment in basic education, especially in rural basic education, to narrow the gap between urban and rural human capital; establish demand-oriented investment in higher education to keep pace with China's social and economic development. The higher scale of the system can prevent the large-scale occurrence of over-education for a long time, and improve the marketization of the labor force mainly by reducing the division of the system and building a labor market environment to improve wage elasticity.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：G521;F224

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