【摘要】：抽樣研究通常是對(duì)抽取的樣本進(jìn)行測(cè)量,根據(jù)測(cè)出的樣本數(shù)值對(duì)總體參數(shù)值進(jìn)行推斷,假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)、置信區(qū)間和數(shù)據(jù)級(jí)數(shù)推斷的方法都被運(yùn)用來(lái)進(jìn)行這一研究推斷。本文采取了一個(gè)體育學(xué)的抽樣研究案例,分析和探討了以上三種方法在做出研究推斷時(shí)的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)。主要結(jié)果包括:基于傳統(tǒng)的假設(shè)檢驗(yàn)提供的p值進(jìn)行推斷時(shí),推斷結(jié)果具有較大的誤導(dǎo)性,只能獲得一個(gè)"二元結(jié)果":顯著或不顯著,同時(shí)還面臨著"I型誤差"和"II型誤差"帶來(lái)的干擾。置信區(qū)間的添加可以對(duì)p值進(jìn)行一定的補(bǔ)充,但并不能對(duì)研究結(jié)果推斷提供實(shí)質(zhì)性的、進(jìn)一步的信息。通過(guò)加入一個(gè)"最小有意義閾值",數(shù)據(jù)級(jí)數(shù)推斷方法能給出一個(gè)"三元結(jié)果":有意義正差異/相關(guān)、有意義負(fù)差異/相關(guān)和無(wú)意義微小差異/相關(guān),并基于置信區(qū)間推算出總體值落在每一個(gè)結(jié)果區(qū)域的可能性,從而能讓定量研究結(jié)果的推論更加豐富和準(zhǔn)確,同時(shí)大大降低I型誤差率和II型誤差率,減少發(fā)表偏倚。
[Abstract]:Sampling research is usually to measure the extracted samples, according to the measured sample values to infer the overall parameter values, hypothesis testing, confidence interval and data series inference methods are used to carry out this research inference. This paper takes a sample study case of physical education, analyzes and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the above three methods in making research inference. The main results include: when inferred from the p value provided by the traditional hypothesis test, the inference result is misleading and can only obtain one "binary result": significant or not significant. At the same time, it is also faced with the interference caused by "type I error" and "type II error". The addition of confidence interval can supplement the p value to a certain extent, but it can not provide substantive and further information for the inference of the research results. By adding a "minimum meaningful threshold", the data series inference method can give a "ternary result": meaningful positive difference / correlation, meaningful negative difference / correlation and meaningless small difference / correlation. Based on the confidence interval, the possibility that the overall value falls in each result region is calculated, so that the inference of quantitative research results can be more abundant and accurate, and the type I error rate and type II error rate can be greatly reduced, and the publication bias can be reduced.
【作者單位】： 華南師范大學(xué)體育科學(xué)學(xué)院;Institute
【基金】：廣東省普通高校青年創(chuàng)新人才項(xiàng)目《足球大數(shù)據(jù)分析方法探討與實(shí)證運(yùn)用》,項(xiàng)目號(hào):2016WQNCX015
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：G80-32
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本文編號(hào)：2487830