本文選題：女子　切入點(diǎn)：10000m　出處：《遼寧師范大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著《奧運(yùn)爭(zhēng)光計(jì)劃》的制訂與實(shí)施及“119計(jì)劃”的提出與開(kāi)展,使中國(guó)田徑運(yùn)動(dòng)朝著更國(guó)際化、更高效、更快速、更健康的方向發(fā)展。馮樹(shù)勇指出,我國(guó)女子運(yùn)動(dòng)員在10000m項(xiàng)目多年來(lái)一直是摘金奪銀的傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)勢(shì)項(xiàng)目,也是我們今后繼續(xù)堅(jiān)持、大力發(fā)展的田徑“拳頭”項(xiàng)目;王秀香,張莉清,夏冬,劉毓鐘等人從奧運(yùn)會(huì)與世錦賽的角度分析研究中國(guó)田徑運(yùn)動(dòng)競(jìng)技發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀及其未來(lái)發(fā)展的方向,并指出中國(guó)優(yōu)勢(shì)項(xiàng)目女子10000m運(yùn)動(dòng)的發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì)良好,在將來(lái)仍將是爭(zhēng)金奪銀需要重點(diǎn)發(fā)展的項(xiàng)目。因此,科學(xué)地預(yù)測(cè)該項(xiàng)目的成績(jī),對(duì)于客觀分析其發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì),制定相應(yīng)的調(diào)控政策,為其更好的科學(xué)訓(xùn)練和可持續(xù)發(fā)展具有重要的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)踐意義。鑒于此,結(jié)合女子田徑10000m項(xiàng)目的年度最好成績(jī)存在的隨機(jī)性和波動(dòng)性等特點(diǎn),本文借助灰色GM(1.1)預(yù)測(cè)模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)與馬爾科夫預(yù)測(cè)模型的優(yōu)點(diǎn)之間存在的互補(bǔ)性,從而建立灰色馬爾科夫預(yù)測(cè)模型對(duì)中國(guó)女子10000m的年度最好成績(jī)進(jìn)行分析研究。
[Abstract]:With the formulation and implementation of the "Olympic glory winning plan" and the proposal and development of the "119 Plan," China's track and field sports have developed in a more international, efficient, faster and healthier direction. Feng Shuyong pointed out that. For many years, Chinese women athletes have been the traditional advantages of winning gold and silver in the 10000m event, and are also the "fist" events in track and field that we will continue to adhere to and vigorously develop in the future; Wang Xiuxiang, Zhang Liqing, Xia Dong, Liu Yuzhong and others analyzed and studied the present situation and future development direction of China's track and field sports from the perspective of the Olympic Games and the World Championships, and pointed out that the development of women's 10000m sports in China's dominant events is in a good situation. In the future, it will still be a key item to develop for gold and silver. Therefore, to scientifically predict the achievements of the project, to objectively analyze its development situation and formulate corresponding regulatory policies, It has important theoretical value and practical significance for better scientific training and sustainable development. In view of this, combined with the characteristics of randomness and volatility of the best results in women's 10000m track and field events, In this paper, the advantages of grey GM-1) prediction model and the advantages of Markov prediction model are complementary. Thus, the grey Markov prediction model is established to analyze and study the best achievement of Chinese women in the year of 10000m.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：遼寧師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：G822.3

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