【摘要】：城市應(yīng)急避難所的空間配置一直是災(zāi)害防治和城市安全研究領(lǐng)域的熱點問題。本文以城市居民盡快地,盡少擁擠地到達(dá)滿足容納需求的應(yīng)急避難所為目標(biāo),整合遙感影像數(shù)據(jù)、高精度人口分布數(shù)據(jù)、交通路網(wǎng)數(shù)據(jù)和專家知識等數(shù)據(jù),綜合運用智能體模型和多準(zhǔn)則決策方法,對城市避難所空間配置開展研究。本文設(shè)計了三類與應(yīng)急疏散相關(guān)的智能體:政府智能體、避難所智能體和居民智能體,來實現(xiàn)應(yīng)急疏散的模擬,并根據(jù)模擬結(jié)果支持應(yīng)急避難所的空間選址和配置。選址方法上運用了多準(zhǔn)則決策方法和權(quán)重敏感性分析,在選址高適宜區(qū)域內(nèi)選定避難所的新建方案。以新的避難所空間布局和配置為條件,執(zhí)行新一輪的應(yīng)急疏散模擬過程,實現(xiàn)選址的循環(huán)優(yōu)化,從而獲得最終的避難所空間配置方案。本文以上海市靜安區(qū)的應(yīng)急避難所空間配置分析為案例,生成了該區(qū)域應(yīng)急避難所的詳細(xì)空間配置方案,該方案能幫助居民在盡少擁擠風(fēng)險下盡快疏散到附近的避難所。本文提出的方法充實了中國城市避難所選址的相關(guān)理論與可操作性的技術(shù)基礎(chǔ),為其他地區(qū)開展避難所的配置工作提供借鑒與參考。
[Abstract]:The spatial allocation of urban emergency shelters has been a hot issue in the field of disaster prevention and urban safety. The aim of this paper is to integrate remote sensing image data, high-precision population distribution data, traffic network data and expert knowledge with the goal of urban residents arriving at emergency shelters to meet the needs of accommodation as soon as possible and with as little congestion as possible, such as remote sensing image data, high-precision population distribution data, traffic network data and expert knowledge, etc. By using agent model and multi-criteria decision-making method, the spatial allocation of urban shelter is studied. In this paper, we design three kinds of agents related to emergency evacuation: government agent, shelter agent and resident agent to realize the simulation of emergency evacuation, and support the space location and configuration of emergency shelter according to the simulation results. The multi-criteria decision method and the weight sensitivity analysis are used to select the new shelter in the high suitable location area. Under the condition of the new space layout and configuration of shelter, a new round of emergency evacuation simulation process is carried out to optimize the location of the shelter, and the final shelter space allocation scheme is obtained. Taking the analysis of emergency shelter space allocation in Jing'an District of Shanghai as an example, the detailed space allocation scheme of emergency shelter in this area is generated, which can help residents evacuate to nearby shelter as soon as possible under the condition of minimizing the risk of congestion. The method proposed in this paper enriches the relevant theory and operational technical basis of urban shelter location in China, and provides reference and reference for other regions to carry out shelter allocation.
【作者單位】： 上海師范大學(xué)地理系;澳大利亞聯(lián)邦科學(xué)與工業(yè)研究組織(CSIRO)水土研究所(Land
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41201548,41401603,71603168)~~
【分類號】：TU984.116

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