本文選題：城市總體規(guī)劃 + 人口預(yù)測(cè)�。� 參考：《現(xiàn)代城市研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：在土地財(cái)政的"綁架"下,城市總體規(guī)劃中人口預(yù)測(cè)規(guī)模普遍存在偏大的問(wèn)題,評(píng)估了省域城鎮(zhèn)體系規(guī)劃制定的人口規(guī)模對(duì)下層次城市總規(guī)編制的指導(dǎo)效果,發(fā)現(xiàn)2000年左右編制的省域城鎮(zhèn)體系規(guī)劃對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)化率預(yù)測(cè)普遍偏低,且編制時(shí)間與下層次城市總規(guī)修編時(shí)間交叉,在下層次城市總規(guī)編制過(guò)程中,省域城鎮(zhèn)體系規(guī)劃制定的目標(biāo)沒(méi)有起到指導(dǎo)與約束作用。進(jìn)而以四川省17個(gè)地級(jí)市為例,分析了最新版總體規(guī)劃中人口預(yù)測(cè)存在的問(wèn)題,包括統(tǒng)計(jì)及計(jì)算口徑不清晰、"刻意"提高城鎮(zhèn)化率、預(yù)測(cè)人口規(guī)模偏大等主要問(wèn)題,最后,針對(duì)性地提出解決思路與對(duì)策。
[Abstract]:Under the "kidnapping" of land finance, the problem of population prediction in urban master planning is generally on the large side. This paper evaluates the guiding effect of the population scale of provincial urban system planning on the formulation of urban master plan at the lower level. It is found that the provincial urban system planning about the year 2000 is generally low in predicting the urbanization rate, and the time of compiling and revising the urban master plan of the lower level is intersected, and it is in the process of compiling the urban master plan at the lower level. The goal of provincial urban system planning has not played a guiding and restrictive role. Then taking 17 prefecture-level cities in Sichuan Province as an example, this paper analyzes the problems existing in the population prediction in the latest version of the master plan, including unclear statistics and calculation, "deliberately" increasing the urbanization rate, and predicting the population size. Finally, Put forward the solution thought and countermeasure pertinently.
【作者單位】： 西安建筑科技大學(xué)建筑學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：TU984.11

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