基于時間序列分析法的軟土地基沉降預(yù)測研究
本文選題:軟土地基 + 沉降預(yù)測; 參考:《河南工業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文
【摘要】:隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展,大批農(nóng)村人口涌入城市致使城市用地越來越緊缺。越來越多的民用和工業(yè)高層建筑越來越受人們的關(guān)注,高層建筑及一些有特殊要求的建筑物的安全已成為目前急需解決的難題。我國幅員遼闊,地質(zhì)地貌條件多樣,近年來一些機(jī)場、糧倉、儲油罐、大型鋼鐵廠等的建設(shè)已經(jīng)轉(zhuǎn)向了具有特殊地質(zhì)環(huán)境的軟土地區(qū)。要在這些軟土地區(qū)建造構(gòu)筑物最重要的就是解決地基沉降和構(gòu)筑物的穩(wěn)定問題。隨著政府部門對軟土地區(qū)的開發(fā)利用,軟土地區(qū)建筑物的地基沉降問題不僅影響工程的造價和工程周期更重要的是會影響到整個工程的質(zhì)量。土體在受到反復(fù)荷載之后其最重要的力學(xué)性質(zhì)就是土體的強(qiáng)度和土體的變形,準(zhǔn)確的依據(jù)土體在長期循環(huán)荷載的作用下的變形來判定地基的沉降問題對上部建筑物的影響是目前土木工程領(lǐng)域的主要的研究課題之一。對于建在軟土地基上的構(gòu)筑物在施工之前已經(jīng)對其進(jìn)行了相應(yīng)的地基處理,如超載預(yù)壓、水泥攪拌樁、擠密砂石樁等。但是對于地基上部的建筑物在使用期間在反復(fù)荷載(油罐中油量液面的升降、糧倉中糧食的裝載和卸載所帶來的荷載的變化)的作用下的地基沉降量的研究很少,因此對于軟土地基沉降的預(yù)測在實(shí)際工程實(shí)踐中仍然很重要。眾所周知,安全和經(jīng)濟(jì)是工程中最核心的兩個問題,但是要想對建筑物的地基沉降進(jìn)行準(zhǔn)確的預(yù)測,使工程在施工安全的同時更加的經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)用是目前需要解決的最大的難題。對于軟土地區(qū)建筑物的地基沉降問題的研究不僅是一項(xiàng)具有理論意義的課題同時也是一項(xiàng)具有工程實(shí)踐意義的課題。在實(shí)際的工程實(shí)踐中時間序列分析法的應(yīng)用極為廣泛。由于這種方法操作起來相對比較簡單,還可以定時定量的預(yù)測事物將來可能的發(fā)展趨勢,因此對于地基沉降的預(yù)測具有很大的實(shí)用價值。通過利用時間序列分析法(Eviews軟件)對前期的地基沉降數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析研究和預(yù)測可以為后期施工過程中選擇最優(yōu)的施工方案提供科學(xué)的依據(jù),依據(jù)預(yù)測結(jié)果選擇合理的措施預(yù)防由于地基沉降引發(fā)的工程事故。本文的寫作過程主要分為以下幾個方面:1.查閱相關(guān)的文獻(xiàn)資料分析國內(nèi)外對于地基沉降預(yù)測的發(fā)展歷程,同時深入了解時間序列分析法的作用和應(yīng)用領(lǐng)域,熟悉時間序列分析法的操作步驟。2.分析地基沉降的變形機(jī)理,對已有的預(yù)測地基沉降的方法進(jìn)行歸納總結(jié),并簡要的闡述這些預(yù)測方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)以及每種方法的適用條件。3.根據(jù)地基沉降的特點(diǎn)并結(jié)合時間序列分析法,選取相關(guān)的地基沉降觀測數(shù)據(jù)通過Eviews軟件建立合適的模型對后期的地基沉降進(jìn)行預(yù)測,在此過程中將詳細(xì)的論述具體的操作方法和參數(shù)判斷調(diào)整的具體步驟。4.根據(jù)最終的預(yù)測結(jié)果對比實(shí)測值分析該預(yù)測方法的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)和該模型建立的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義,并指出本文的不足和需要進(jìn)一步進(jìn)行改善的地方。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, a large number of rural population into the city has caused more and more shortage of urban land. More and more civil and industrial high-rise buildings are becoming more and more concerned. The safety of high-rise buildings and some special buildings has become a difficult problem to be solved urgently. The vast territory and geological and geomorphic conditions in China In recent years, the construction of some airports, granaries, storage tanks and large steel mills has turned to soft soil areas with special geological conditions. The most important thing to build structures in these soft soil areas is to solve the problem of foundation settlement and structure stability. With the development and utilization of soft soil areas in the government department, the construction of soft soil area The problem of ground settlement not only affects the cost of the project and the engineering period, but also affects the quality of the whole project. The most important mechanical property of the soil after repeated loads is the strength of the soil and the deformation of the soil, and the settlement of the soil is determined accurately according to the deformation of the soil under the action of long cyclic loading. The effect of the falling problem on the upper building is one of the main research topics in the civil engineering field. For the construction on the soft soil foundation, it has been treated with the corresponding foundation before the construction, such as overloading preloading, cement mixing pile, compaction pile and so on. There are few studies on the settlement of the foundation under the effect of the complex load (the rise of the oil level in the tank, the loading and unloading of the grain in the granary), so it is still very important to predict the settlement of the soft soil foundation in practical engineering. As we all know, the safety and economy are the two most important problems in the project, but it is well known that the settlement of the settlement is the most important problem in the project. In order to predict the foundation settlement of the building accurately, so that the project is more economical and practical at the same time, it is the most difficult problem to be solved at the same time. The research on the settlement of the foundation of the building in the soft soil area is not only a subject of theoretical significance but also a project with practical significance. In practical engineering practice, the application of time series analysis method is very extensive. Because this method is relatively simple to operate, it can also predict the possible future trend of things in time, so it is of great practical value for the prediction of foundation settlement. By using time series analysis (Eviews software), it is very useful. The research and prediction of the foundation settlement data in the period can provide scientific basis for selecting the best construction plan during the construction process, and select reasonable measures according to the prediction results to prevent the engineering accidents caused by foundation settlement. The writing process of this paper is mainly divided into several aspects: 1. consulting related literature data. This paper analyzes the development course of foundation settlement prediction at home and abroad, and deeply understands the function and application fields of time series analysis method. It is familiar with the operation step.2. of time series analysis method to analyze the deformation mechanism of foundation settlement, sum up the existing methods to predict the foundation settlement, and briefly explain the advantages of these prediction methods. .3. based on the characteristics of foundation settlement and the time series analysis method, the relevant ground settlement observation data are selected to predict the later foundation settlement through Eviews software, and the specific operation methods and parameters will be discussed in detail. Sudden.4. analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the prediction method and the practical significance of the model based on the final prediction results compared with the measured values, and points out the shortcomings of this paper and the need for further improvement.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:河南工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:TU447;TU433
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