【摘要】：各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)踐證明，國(guó)債政策作為一種有效的經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)節(jié)工具，，不僅是財(cái)政政策的一項(xiàng)重要組成部分，也是連接財(cái)政政策與貨幣政策的橋梁，它在籌集資金、調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)的過程中的確發(fā)揮了不可替代的作用。而尚未結(jié)束的歐洲債務(wù)危機(jī)不斷地提醒我們：國(guó)債政策只有在恰當(dāng)?shù)厥褂脮r(shí)，才有可能發(fā)揮其所具有的巨大潛能；否則，放任國(guó)債規(guī)模的增長(zhǎng)，償還債務(wù)的能力不斷調(diào)低將導(dǎo)致該國(guó)政府的信用水平下降、整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩乃至給整個(gè)社會(huì)帶來巨大的破壞。自1981年我國(guó)開始重新恢復(fù)國(guó)債，縱觀這三十年的債務(wù)發(fā)行，其規(guī)模迅速增長(zhǎng)。特別是1998年亞洲金融危機(jī)發(fā)生后，針對(duì)危機(jī)及國(guó)內(nèi)需求不足的形勢(shì)可能帶來經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑，我國(guó)開始實(shí)行積極財(cái)政政策，隨之而來的是國(guó)債發(fā)行的巨額增加。2008年，在美國(guó)次貸危機(jī)誘發(fā)的金融海嘯的猛烈沖擊下，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨及其嚴(yán)峻的形勢(shì)。在此背景下，令我國(guó)不得不終止2005年實(shí)施的穩(wěn)健財(cái)政政策，以“擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需保增長(zhǎng)”為目標(biāo)的積極財(cái)政政策于2008年在我國(guó)再次啟動(dòng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇跡象越來越明顯的同時(shí)，國(guó)債規(guī)模也隨著迅速膨脹，國(guó)債資金使用效率較低，政府面臨的國(guó)債償還風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不容小視。 論文考察了1991-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)資料，運(yùn)用多元統(tǒng)計(jì)分析及R語言建模方法，對(duì)我國(guó)的國(guó)債政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行主成分分析。首先，在對(duì)國(guó)債及國(guó)債政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)理論和我國(guó)國(guó)債政策實(shí)踐進(jìn)行分析的基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)我國(guó)的影響因素，把國(guó)債政策具體因素分為目標(biāo)定位風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、國(guó)債投資規(guī)模、資金來源與運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等。其次，對(duì)我國(guó)實(shí)踐量化總結(jié)，并運(yùn)用主成分分析及R語言對(duì)我國(guó)國(guó)債政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作綜合評(píng)價(jià)，同時(shí)基于國(guó)債政策的使用中投向與效率深入分析。最后，結(jié)合我國(guó)目前的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，提出降低國(guó)債風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、提高國(guó)債投資長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)效應(yīng)的相關(guān)政策建議。
[Abstract]:The practice of economic development in various countries has proved that the national debt policy, as an effective economic adjustment tool, is not only an important part of fiscal policy, but also a bridge connecting fiscal policy and monetary policy. It is raising funds. In the process of regulating and controlling the economy, it has indeed played an irreplaceable role. And the unfinished European debt crisis continues to remind us that national debt policy can realize its great potential only when it is properly used; Otherwise, allowing the growth of the national debt and the ability to repay the debt will lead to the decline of the credit level of the government, and the instability of the whole national economy and even bring great damage to the whole society. Since 1981, China began to resume the national debt, throughout these 30 years of debt issuance, its scale has grown rapidly. Especially after the Asian financial crisis in 1998, in view of the crisis and the shortage of domestic demand, China began to implement an active fiscal policy, followed by a huge increase in the issuance of national debt in 2008. in view of the economic downturn, China began to implement an active fiscal policy. Under the fierce impact of the financial tsunami induced by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, China's economy is facing a severe situation. In this context, China has to put an end to the prudent fiscal policy implemented in 2005, and the active fiscal policy with the goal of "expanding domestic demand and ensuring growth" was launched again in China in 2008. The signs of economic recovery are becoming more and more obvious, at the same time, the scale of national debt is also expanding rapidly, the efficiency of the use of national debt funds is low, and the risk of national debt repayment faced by the government should not be underestimated. This paper investigates the data from 1991 to 2010, and uses multivariate statistical analysis and R language modeling method to analyze the policy risk of national debt in China. First of all, on the basis of analyzing the relevant theories of national debt and national debt policy risk and the practice of national debt policy in our country, according to the influencing factors of our country, the specific factors of national debt policy are divided into target positioning risk and national debt investment scale. Source of funds and risk of use, etc. Secondly, this paper makes a quantitative summary of the practice of our country, and makes a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of our national debt policy by using principal component analysis and R language, and analyzes the investment and efficiency of the national debt policy based on the use of the national debt policy. Finally, combined with the current macroeconomic environment and economic policy of our country, this paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions to reduce the risk of national debt and improve the long-term effect of national debt investment.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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本文編號(hào)：2493105