發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-04 14:19

【摘要】：最近幾年發(fā)生了金融危機(jī),歐洲爆發(fā)了債務(wù)危機(jī),同時(shí)我國的地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也逐漸顯現(xiàn),地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,地方政府債務(wù)逾期時(shí)有發(fā)生,地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過分依賴地方政府債務(wù),如不進(jìn)行科學(xué)有效的防范與化解,將引發(fā)地方政府債務(wù)危機(jī)進(jìn)而引發(fā)金融危機(jī)甚至社會(huì)危機(jī)。如何科學(xué)地監(jiān)測地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),準(zhǔn)確地評(píng)定地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況,根據(jù)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的狀況,及時(shí)發(fā)出預(yù)警并采取相應(yīng)防范與化解對(duì)策,這些已成為當(dāng)前國內(nèi)學(xué)者與政府相關(guān)部門研究的重要課題。 本文首先對(duì)國內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了綜述,包括支持和反對(duì)政府借債的見解,緊接著對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)研究的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行了介紹,包括我國學(xué)者對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的研究；接著介紹了地方政府債務(wù)的涵義與分類,主要借鑒白海娜提出的分類標(biāo)準(zhǔn),根據(jù)不確定性程度來看,政府債務(wù)分為直接債務(wù)和或有債務(wù),從法律關(guān)系角度,政府債務(wù)分為顯性債務(wù)和隱性債務(wù),一共四類,并且它們可以形成四種組合分類；之后闡述了地方政府風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的涵義,介紹了我國當(dāng)前地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的現(xiàn)狀,認(rèn)為我國當(dāng)前地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模龐大、償還逾期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大、管理缺失、監(jiān)管不到位、違規(guī)頻發(fā)等特點(diǎn),接著詳細(xì)討論了我國地方政府債務(wù)的成因,成因有體制方面的,有法制、管理方面的,也有政績考核體系以及地方經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式方面的；接著介紹了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的建立過程,介紹了建立預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的必要性,建立的原則以及建立預(yù)警系統(tǒng)要達(dá)到的目標(biāo),能夠讓地方政府系統(tǒng)全面地了解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀,并且對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評(píng)估分析,在評(píng)估結(jié)果的基礎(chǔ)上能夠幫助地方政府制定出相應(yīng)的政策,之后詳細(xì)闡述了預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的構(gòu)成指標(biāo)體系情況,分為內(nèi)部監(jiān)控指標(biāo)體系、外部監(jiān)控指標(biāo)體系、債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)定指標(biāo)體系三個(gè)大類,作為構(gòu)建地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)警系統(tǒng)模型的指標(biāo)體系是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)定包含的指標(biāo)。闡述了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的建立過程之后,采用層次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process)和模糊綜合判斷法結(jié)合“金融粒子理論”建立了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),將地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)分為5個(gè)評(píng)判等級(jí),分別是很安全、安全、一定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、中等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和高度風(fēng)險(xiǎn),根據(jù)地方政府債務(wù)綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)系數(shù)來確定當(dāng)前地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的預(yù)警級(jí)別。 在統(tǒng)計(jì)了2007-2011年安徽省政府債務(wù)的情況后,運(yùn)用地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)對(duì)安徽省政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的情況進(jìn)行了評(píng)定與預(yù)警實(shí)證研究,運(yùn)用層次分析法(AHP法)借助yaahp軟件得出了安徽省政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估為“一定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)”的結(jié)論,之后運(yùn)用“金融粒子理論”和“目標(biāo)分解法”,結(jié)合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)映射法對(duì)安徽省政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行了預(yù)警,預(yù)警級(jí)別為“輕警區(qū)”的結(jié)論；之后針對(duì)地方政府債務(wù)的諸多問題,本文從地方政府債務(wù)的借債、用債、還債三個(gè)方面入手,給出了防范和化解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政策建議,地方政府債務(wù)需要透明化、顯性化,應(yīng)該繼續(xù)深化分稅制體制改革深化市場經(jīng)濟(jì)體制,放開地方政府發(fā)行債券,應(yīng)當(dāng)建立健全地方政府債務(wù)管理制度,改進(jìn)當(dāng)前政績考核標(biāo)準(zhǔn),將地方政府債務(wù)管理納入政績考核標(biāo)準(zhǔn),整理、整頓地方融資平臺(tái),引進(jìn)民間資本進(jìn)入地方融資平臺(tái),逐步有序消減地方政府存量債務(wù)；最后嘗試給出了地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)不同預(yù)警級(jí)別對(duì)應(yīng)的政策建議,安全區(qū)建議積極監(jiān)測,以防范為主,輕警區(qū)要警惕指標(biāo)的變化,控制地方政府債務(wù)水平,以防范為主,控制為輔,重警區(qū)要嚴(yán)控地方政府債務(wù)規(guī)模的增長,積極采取應(yīng)對(duì)措施償還到期、逾期債務(wù),努力降低地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)導(dǎo)致的其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the financial crisis has taken place in Europe, and the debt crisis has burst out in Europe. At the same time, the debt risk of the local government of our country is gradually emerging, the debt of the local government is expanding, the debt of the local government is overdue, and the local economic development is excessively dependent on the local government's debt. If scientific and effective prevention and resolution are not carried out, the local government's debt crisis will trigger the financial crisis and even the social crisis. How to scientifically monitor the risk of local debt and to assess the state of the local government's debt risk accurately, and timely issue the early warning and take corresponding prevention and countermeasure according to the state of the local government's debt risk has become an important subject in the research of the current domestic scholars and the relevant government departments. This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature, including the support and the opposition to the government's borrowing, and then introduces the relevant literature of the local government's debt research, including the research of the local government's debt risk by Chinese scholars. The paper then introduces the meaning and classification of local government's debt, which is based on the classification standard proposed by the white sea. According to the degree of uncertainty, the government's debt is divided into the direct debt and the contingent liability, from the angle of legal relation, the government debt is divided into the dominant debt and the recessive debt. The paper expounds the meaning of the local government's risk, and introduces the present situation of the current local government's debt risk. It is of the view that the current local government's debt is large, the overdue risk is large, the management is missing, and the supervision can't be found. The characteristics of the local government's debt are discussed in detail. The cause of the local government's debt is discussed in detail. The cause of the system is the system, the rule of law, the management, the system of performance assessment and the way of local economic development. Then, the paper introduces the establishment of the local government debt risk early warning system, introduces the necessity of the establishment of the early warning system, the establishment of the principle and the goal to set up the early warning system, and can make the local government system fully understand the local government's debt risk. The evaluation and analysis of the local government's debt risk, on the basis of the assessment results, can help the local government to develop the corresponding policies, and then detail the index system of the early warning system, which is divided into the internal monitoring index system and the external monitoring index body. The index system of the system and the risk assessment index system is the index system of the early-warning system model to construct the local government's debt risk. After the establishment of the local government debt risk early warning system, the local government debt risk early warning system is set up by the Analytic Hierarchy Process and the fuzzy comprehensive judgment method, and the local government's debt risk level is divided into 5 judgments and so on. The level is safety, safety, certain risk, medium risk and high risk, respectively, and the early warning level of the current local government debt risk early warning system is determined according to the local government debt comprehensive evaluation coefficient. Don't. After counting the debt of the provincial government in 2007-2011, use the local government debt risk early warning system to assess and early-warning the debt risk of the provincial government. In this paper, by means of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the paper draws the conclusion that the debt risk assessment of the provincial government is the "a certain risk", then uses the "financial particle theory" and the "target decomposition method", and the risk mapping method is used to pre-alert the debt risk of the provincial government, and the early-warning level is the "light warning area". After the conclusion of the local government's debt, this paper starts with the three aspects of the debt of the local government, the use of the debt and the repayment of the debt, and gives the policy suggestion to prevent and resolve the risk of the local government's debt, and the local government's debt needs to be transparent. To be flexible, we should continue to deepen the reform of the tax-sharing system, deepen the market economy system, and let go of the local government to issue bonds. We should establish and improve the local government's debt management system, improve the current performance assessment standard, and incorporate the local government debt management into the performance assessment standard. Organize and rectify the local finance platform, introduce the private capital into the local finance platform, gradually and orderly reduce the local government stock debt, and finally try to give the policy suggestions corresponding to the different early warning levels of the local government debt risk early warning system, and the safe area is recommended to actively monitor to prevent For the main purpose, the light warning area should be alert to the change of the index, to control the local government's debt level, to prevent the main control and to control the auxiliary. The heavy police area should strictly control the growth of the local government's debt scale, actively take the measures to repay the due and overdue debts, and try to reduce the risk of the local government's debt
【學(xué)位授予單位】：安徽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5

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