【摘要】：隨著全球化進(jìn)程的加深，各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的聯(lián)系已經(jīng)越來(lái)越緊密，我國(guó)自2001年加入世界貿(mào)易組織以來(lái)，市場(chǎng)開(kāi)放力度不斷加大，在享受著對(duì)外開(kāi)放所獲得的紅利同時(shí)，我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)所面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也是與日俱增，其中最主要的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)就來(lái)自于國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的沖擊。由于國(guó)際投機(jī)資本呈現(xiàn)出高流動(dòng)性、逐利性、高破壞性等特點(diǎn)，如果其不受限制的大規(guī)模流入，不但會(huì)擾亂我國(guó)金融秩序，，更是嚴(yán)重威脅到我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康運(yùn)行，特別現(xiàn)階段我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)尚不完善，監(jiān)管體系尚不健全，所面臨的國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入沖擊的壓力更大。因此，對(duì)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本進(jìn)入我國(guó)的影響因素的研究具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 本文在以往國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上，在對(duì)近年來(lái)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入我國(guó)的規(guī)模，途徑，以及對(duì)我國(guó)市場(chǎng)的影響進(jìn)行闡述后。重點(diǎn)研究了我國(guó)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入的影響因素，筆者在考察了國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)的基礎(chǔ)上，進(jìn)一步全面的選取了即期匯率因素，中美利率差因素，股票市場(chǎng)因素，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)因素，國(guó)內(nèi)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素等五個(gè)要素進(jìn)行分析，并根據(jù)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本短期性，靈敏性的特點(diǎn)采用2008年1月到2011年12月48個(gè)月的月度數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入我國(guó)的影響因素進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。本文采用協(xié)整分析的方法建立了長(zhǎng)期均衡模型最后建立短期動(dòng)態(tài)的誤差修正模型。結(jié)果表明，五個(gè)因素中，中美利率差因素，股票市場(chǎng)因素、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)因素對(duì)于我國(guó)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入有著顯著影響，而房地產(chǎn)因素和即期匯率因素對(duì)于我國(guó)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入的影響并不顯著，這與之前有些學(xué)者的研究并不一致，經(jīng)筆者研究發(fā)現(xiàn)關(guān)于房地產(chǎn)因素不顯著的原因可能與我國(guó)持續(xù)的房地產(chǎn)調(diào)控有關(guān)。而即期匯率水平因?yàn)橐呀?jīng)形成，對(duì)于國(guó)際投機(jī)資本控制匯率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)所提供的參考價(jià)值有限，即期匯率的漲跌并不能很好的預(yù)測(cè)遠(yuǎn)期匯率，形成匯率預(yù)期�？赡苁瞧洳伙@著的主要原因。 最后，基于本文研究結(jié)果，從我國(guó)國(guó)際投機(jī)資本流入的影響因素入手，提出了對(duì)策建議。主要分為政策層面建議和技術(shù)層面建議。提出了加快我國(guó)利率市場(chǎng)化改革，完善股票市場(chǎng)，打擊地下錢(qián)莊等政策建議。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of the globalization process, the economic ties of various countries have become more and more close. Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, the opening up of the market has been continuously strengthened, and at the same time, it enjoys the dividends of opening to the outside world. China's financial market is facing increasing risks, among which the most important risk comes from the impact of international speculative capital inflows on China's economy. Because the international speculative capital has the characteristics of high liquidity, profit-banding and high destruction, if it is not restricted in a large scale, it will not only disturb the financial order of our country, but also seriously threaten the healthy operation of our national economy. Especially at present, the financial market is not perfect, the supervision system is not perfect, and the pressure of international speculative capital inflow is even greater. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the influence factors of international speculative capital entering our country. Based on the previous research results of scholars at home and abroad, this paper expounds the scale, ways and influence of international speculative capital inflow into China in recent years. On the basis of reviewing the relevant literature at home and abroad, the author selects the spot exchange rate factor, the interest rate difference factor between China and the United States, and the stock market factor. Real estate market factors, domestic macroeconomic factors and other five factors are analyzed, and according to the short-term nature of international speculative capital, Based on the monthly data from January 2008 to December 2011, the factors affecting the inflow of international speculative capital into China are empirically analyzed. In this paper, a long-term equilibrium model is established by cointegration analysis. Finally, a short-term dynamic error correction model is established. The results show that, of the five factors, interest rate difference between China and the United States, stock market factors and macroeconomic factors have a significant impact on China's international speculative capital inflow. However, the impact of real estate factors and spot exchange rate factors on China's international speculative capital inflow is not significant, which is inconsistent with previous studies by some scholars. The author finds that the reason why the real estate factor is not significant may be related to the continuous real estate regulation and control in China. Because the spot exchange rate level has been formed, the reference value for international speculative capital to control exchange rate risk is limited. The rise and fall of spot exchange rate can not well predict forward exchange rate and form exchange rate expectation. May be the main reason for its lack of significance. Finally, based on the results of this paper, the author puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions based on the influencing factors of China's international speculative capital inflow. It is mainly divided into policy level suggestion and technical level suggestion. Some policy suggestions such as speeding up the reform of interest rate marketization, perfecting the stock market and cracking down on underground banks are put forward.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.5

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