【摘要】：國債是政府調(diào)節(jié)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一種工具，在現(xiàn)代經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中起著不可替代的作用，但是，由于國債利用不當(dāng)引起的債務(wù)危機(jī)，給經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來了極大的危害。中國在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中也面臨著債務(wù)規(guī)模越來越大的壓力。因此，需要建立中國合理國債規(guī)�；鶞�(zhǔn)，尋求合理國債規(guī)模途徑，從而確立中國合理國債的規(guī)模，通過合理國債規(guī)模發(fā)揮國債對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的積極作用，并約束國債規(guī)模，避免國債規(guī)模過大而引起債務(wù)危機(jī)。一個(gè)國家的負(fù)債可分為主觀負(fù)債和客觀負(fù)債，，這兩種負(fù)債訴求在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)生活中所發(fā)揮的作用和達(dá)到的目標(biāo)是不同的，由此可以界定出負(fù)債率的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義。根據(jù)這一國債形成的機(jī)理，研究制約中國國債規(guī)模的相關(guān)因素，在此基礎(chǔ)上分別分析了國債指標(biāo)對國債規(guī)模的制約和國債結(jié)構(gòu)對國債規(guī)模的制約；確立了中國合理國債規(guī)模的基準(zhǔn)，建立起中國合理國債指標(biāo)體系，并提出合理國債規(guī)模獲取的途徑，其中重點(diǎn)是利用SPSS統(tǒng)計(jì)軟件，通過ARIMA方法與Expert Modeler方法做時(shí)間序列預(yù)測，根據(jù)赤字-債務(wù)動態(tài)模型和有效需求理論，并結(jié)合中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r，建立起合理國債規(guī)模的指標(biāo)體系。該體系對中國國內(nèi)債務(wù)規(guī)模進(jìn)行了具體的約束，同時(shí)也擴(kuò)大了外債規(guī)模的范圍，對中國國內(nèi)債務(wù)規(guī)模的約束主要是根據(jù)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r計(jì)算出合理負(fù)債率、居民應(yīng)債能力、合理赤字率和合理國債依存度指標(biāo)，將國債規(guī)模控制在各合理指標(biāo)的范圍之內(nèi)。從而實(shí)現(xiàn)了獲取合理國債規(guī)模的目的。
[Abstract]:National debt is a tool for the government to regulate the economy and plays an irreplaceable role in the development of modern economy. However, due to the debt crisis caused by improper use of national debt, it brings great harm to the economic development. China is also facing growing pressure on the size of its debt in its economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a reasonable national debt scale standard in China, to seek a reasonable national debt scale approach, so as to establish the scale of China's reasonable national debt, to play a positive role in the economic development through the rational national debt scale, and to restrain the national debt scale. Avoid debt crisis caused by excessive size of national debt. The debt of a country can be divided into subjective debt and objective liability. The two kinds of debt demands play different roles and achieve different goals in real economic life, so the economic significance of debt ratio can be defined. According to the formation mechanism of this national debt, this paper studies the relevant factors that restrict the scale of China's national debt, and analyzes the restriction of the national debt index on the scale of the national debt and the restriction of the structure of the national debt on the scale of the national debt. This paper establishes the benchmark of the reasonable national debt scale in China, establishes the index system of the reasonable national debt in China, and puts forward the way to obtain the reasonable national debt scale. The emphasis is to make the time series prediction by using the SPSS statistical software, the ARIMA method and the Expert Modeler method. According to the dynamic model of deficit and debt and the theory of effective demand, and combined with the economic development of China, the index system of reasonable national debt scale is established. The system has concretely restricted the scale of China's domestic debt, and at the same time expanded the scope of the scale of foreign debt. The constraint on the scale of China's domestic debt is mainly to calculate the reasonable debt ratio and residents' debt capacity according to the state of China's economic development. The reasonable deficit rate and the reasonable national debt dependence index control the scale of the national debt within the range of each reasonable index. In order to achieve the goal of obtaining reasonable national debt scale.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F812.5

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