【摘要】：20世紀(jì)90年代以來,隨著滬深證券交易所的相繼成立,我國(guó)的股市規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大,對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響也越來越大,以股票市場(chǎng)為主體的資本市場(chǎng)迅速發(fā)展給貨幣政策的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制帶來了深刻的影響。雖然各國(guó)中央銀行對(duì)于控制通貨膨脹已經(jīng)取得一定的成效,但是對(duì)于包括股票價(jià)格在內(nèi)的資產(chǎn)價(jià)格膨脹卻難有對(duì)策,傳統(tǒng)的貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制面臨著越來越大的挑戰(zhàn)。因此有必要針對(duì)我國(guó)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況對(duì)貨幣政策股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制進(jìn)行研究,以防止股票價(jià)格大幅波動(dòng)帶來負(fù)面影響。 本文首先對(duì)貨幣政策的股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的理論進(jìn)行梳理,接著深刻分析了我國(guó)貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的演變、貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制發(fā)生變化的表現(xiàn)以及實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀,從而為實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)做好了分析基礎(chǔ)。 然后,將貨幣政策的股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制分為兩個(gè)部分進(jìn)行研究,即貨幣政策對(duì)股票價(jià)格的影響以及股票價(jià)格對(duì)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。實(shí)證分析了利率和貨幣供應(yīng)量對(duì)股價(jià)的影響以及股市的消費(fèi)效應(yīng)與投資效應(yīng)。得出的結(jié)論表明,貨幣供應(yīng)量與股票價(jià)格存在長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的關(guān)系,利率由于非市場(chǎng)化等原因?qū)蓛r(jià)的作用不明顯。股票市場(chǎng)存在正的消費(fèi)效應(yīng)與投資效應(yīng),但是效應(yīng)很小。 最后,根據(jù)以上實(shí)證結(jié)論提出完善我國(guó)貨幣政策股票價(jià)格傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制、提高股票市場(chǎng)傳導(dǎo)有效性的政策建議。包括健全股市資源配置功能、建立貨幣市場(chǎng)與股票市場(chǎng)的聯(lián)結(jié)機(jī)制、推進(jìn)利率市場(chǎng)化改革、完善貨幣政策運(yùn)行體系以及擴(kuò)大股市規(guī)模與調(diào)整市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, with the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, the scale of China's stock market has been expanding, and the impact on the national economy has become more and more great. The rapid development of capital market with stock market as the main body has brought profound influence to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Although the central banks of various countries have made some achievements in controlling inflation, it is difficult to deal with the inflation of asset prices, including stock prices, and the traditional transmission mechanism of monetary policy is facing more and more challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to study the transmission mechanism of monetary policy stock price in order to prevent the negative impact of stock price fluctuation. This paper firstly combs the theory of stock price transmission mechanism of monetary policy, then deeply analyzes the evolution of monetary policy transmission mechanism, the change of monetary policy transmission mechanism and the development of real economy. Thus, it makes a good analysis basis for the empirical test. Then, the transmission mechanism of stock price of monetary policy is divided into two parts, that is, the influence of monetary policy on stock price and the influence of stock price on real economy. The influence of interest rate and money supply on stock price, the consumption effect and investment effect of stock market are analyzed empirically. The conclusion shows that there is a long-term stable relationship between money supply and stock price, and interest rate has little effect on stock price due to non-marketization and other reasons. The stock market has positive consumption effect and investment effect, but the effect is very small. Finally, based on the above empirical conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to improve the stock price transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China and improve the effectiveness of stock market transmission. It includes perfecting the function of stock market resource allocation, establishing the linkage mechanism between money market and stock market, pushing forward the reform of interest rate marketization, perfecting monetary policy operation system, expanding the scale of stock market and adjusting market structure.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：天津財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0;F832.51;F224

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