【摘要】：風(fēng)電是我國重要的新能源，風(fēng)電行業(yè)金融風(fēng)險將會影響到我國能源戰(zhàn)略的實(shí)施和經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級的大局。此外，風(fēng)電企業(yè)的經(jīng)營資本大部分來自銀行貸款或股權(quán)投資基金，二級市場上也有不少投資者持有風(fēng)電上市公司的股票，若風(fēng)電企業(yè)大面積破產(chǎn)將會使銀行產(chǎn)生大量的不良貸款，也會使廣大投資者蒙受巨大損失，影響我國金融體系的穩(wěn)定。因此，對我國風(fēng)電行業(yè)金融風(fēng)險進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)研究有著重要意義。 本文先闡述我國風(fēng)電行業(yè)的發(fā)展概況，分析風(fēng)電整機(jī)制造業(yè)、風(fēng)電開發(fā)商和風(fēng)電服務(wù)業(yè)的風(fēng)險狀況及其成因。然后以國內(nèi)12家風(fēng)電龍頭企業(yè)為行業(yè)代表，收集自2007年第一季度起至2012年第三季度23個季度財務(wù)報表，共27,048個數(shù)據(jù)，構(gòu)建風(fēng)電行業(yè)的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。接著，從資本結(jié)構(gòu)錯配風(fēng)險、期限錯配風(fēng)險、營運(yùn)能力風(fēng)險和盈利能力風(fēng)險四個角度量化分析風(fēng)電行業(yè)靜態(tài)金融風(fēng)險。隨后，，結(jié)合12家風(fēng)電企業(yè)自2007年1月1日至2012年9月30日共17,256個股票交易數(shù)據(jù)，采用或有權(quán)益法通過MATLAB的迭代計算功能求得行業(yè)總資產(chǎn)市值及其波動率，從而構(gòu)建風(fēng)電行業(yè)或有資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表，實(shí)證研究風(fēng)電行業(yè)的違約距離、違約概率和信用風(fēng)險溢價等行業(yè)違約風(fēng)險。最后，采用內(nèi)容分析法，構(gòu)造32個政策文本區(qū)間，定量研究自2000年以來的40份中央級別風(fēng)電扶持政策，并結(jié)合風(fēng)電行業(yè)金融風(fēng)險的研究結(jié)論提出切實(shí)的政策建議。 經(jīng)過本文對風(fēng)電行業(yè)基于存量、流動和市場信息的實(shí)證分析，得出：我國風(fēng)電行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率較高、資產(chǎn)與負(fù)債期限存在錯配，增長速度放緩、盈利能力下降，已經(jīng)進(jìn)入調(diào)整期和微利時代，行業(yè)金融風(fēng)險集中體現(xiàn)在風(fēng)電整機(jī)制造環(huán)節(jié)。風(fēng)電行業(yè)從2011年第三季度至今信用風(fēng)險持續(xù)惡化，違約概率和風(fēng)險溢價不斷上升，違約距離越來越小，金融風(fēng)險顯著。而且現(xiàn)行的風(fēng)電扶持政策強(qiáng)制性政策使用過多，激勵性政策使用不夠，政策缺乏連續(xù)性與統(tǒng)一性。因此，本文建議從建立行業(yè)穩(wěn)定基金、完善風(fēng)電行業(yè)風(fēng)險管理機(jī)制等方面管理好當(dāng)前風(fēng)電行業(yè)的金融風(fēng)險，并通過完善風(fēng)電行業(yè)扶持政策，促進(jìn)行業(yè)健康發(fā)展來防范風(fēng)電行業(yè)的金融風(fēng)險。
[Abstract]:Wind power is an important new energy source in China. The financial risk of wind power industry will affect the implementation of energy strategy and the overall situation of economic transformation and upgrading. In addition, most of the operating capital of wind power enterprises comes from bank loans or equity investment funds. In the secondary market, many investors also hold shares of wind power listed companies. If wind power enterprises go bankrupt in a large area, the banks will produce a large number of non-performing loans, and investors will suffer huge losses, which will affect the stability of our financial system. Therefore, it is of great significance to systematically study the financial risk of wind power industry in China. This paper first describes the development situation of wind power industry in China, analyzes the risk situation and causes of wind turbine manufacturing industry, wind power developer and wind power service industry. Then take 12 domestic wind power leading enterprises as the industry representative, collected 23 quarter financial statements from the first quarter of 2007 to the third quarter of 2012, a total of 27048 data, constructs the balance sheet of the wind power industry. Then, the static financial risk of wind power industry is analyzed quantitatively from four aspects: capital structure mismatch risk, term mismatch risk, operating capacity risk and profitability risk. Then, based on the 17256 stock trading data of 12 wind power enterprises from January 1, 2007 to September 30, 2012, the total market value of the industry and its volatility are obtained by using the contingent equity method through the iterative calculation function of MATLAB. In order to build a contingent balance sheet of wind power industry, empirical research wind power industry default distance, default probability and credit risk premium industry default risk. Finally, using content analysis method, 32 policy text intervals are constructed, 40 central wind power supporting policies are quantitatively studied since 2000, and practical policy recommendations are put forward based on the conclusion of wind power industry financial risk research. Through the empirical analysis of the wind power industry based on stock, flow and market information, it is concluded that the asset liability ratio of wind power industry in China is relatively high, the mismatch between assets and liabilities has existed, the growth rate has slowed down, and the profitability of wind power industry has declined. Has entered the adjustment period and small profit era, the industry financial risk concentrated in wind power machine manufacturing links. Since the third quarter of 2011, the credit risk in the wind power industry has continued to deteriorate, the probability of default and the risk premium have been rising, the distance of default is becoming smaller and smaller, and the financial risk is significant. Moreover, the current wind power support policy uses too much mandatory policy, incentive policy is not enough, the policy lacks continuity and unity. Therefore, this paper suggests to manage the financial risks of the current wind power industry from the aspects of establishing the industry stability fund and perfecting the risk management mechanism of the wind power industry, and through perfecting the supporting policy of the wind power industry, Promote the healthy development of the industry to prevent the financial risks of wind power industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華南理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F426.61;F832.5

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