發(fā)布時間：2018-08-17 17:15

【摘要】：我國離岸金融在“走出去”和開拓“兩個市場”戰(zhàn)略的推動下取得了一定的成果，同時也為我國企業(yè)開拓國際市場提供了全面的金融服務(wù)，但是離岸金融在迅速擴(kuò)張的同時，也蘊含著較大的風(fēng)險。因此，針對當(dāng)前我國對離岸金融風(fēng)險的意識比較薄弱，開展對離岸金融風(fēng)險的研究具有較強的理論與現(xiàn)實意義。 本文通過對國際國內(nèi)有關(guān)離岸金融的研究現(xiàn)狀分析，國內(nèi)對于離岸金融風(fēng)險的分析研究剛剛開始，大部分學(xué)者僅僅分析了發(fā)達(dá)國家離岸金融市場的監(jiān)管經(jīng)驗，對離岸金融風(fēng)險分析進(jìn)行分析的文獻(xiàn)不多。因此，，本文在前面學(xué)者研究的基礎(chǔ)上，從實證角度較系統(tǒng)地研究了離岸金融風(fēng)險的影響因素。首先全面介紹了離岸金融的形成原因和發(fā)展歷程以及我國離岸金融的發(fā)展歷程和特點，同時分析與界定了離岸金融風(fēng)險；其次從理論方面對離岸金融風(fēng)險進(jìn)行分析，全面確定離岸金融風(fēng)險的影響因素及各影響因素與離岸金融風(fēng)險水平的關(guān)系；再次通過收集東南亞金融危機爆發(fā)前后東南亞各國有關(guān)變量的數(shù)據(jù)，對離岸金融風(fēng)險的影響因素進(jìn)行實證分析，驗證理論分析結(jié)果的可行性和實用性，并對實證分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行說明和解釋；最后，在理論分析和實證分析的基礎(chǔ)上，根據(jù)實證分析結(jié)果，給出防范和監(jiān)控我國離岸金融風(fēng)險水平的啟示與建議。 本文通過理論分析和實證研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，離岸金融市場的利率水平與離岸金融風(fēng)險水平呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系，離岸金融市場利率水平的上升，會導(dǎo)致離岸金融風(fēng)險水平上升；離岸金融機構(gòu)之間的競爭程度加劇時，離岸金融風(fēng)險水平也會上升；當(dāng)資產(chǎn)價格被高估，產(chǎn)生泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)時，特別是產(chǎn)生房地產(chǎn)價格泡沫時，離岸金融風(fēng)險水平會上升；研究還發(fā)現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)由上升轉(zhuǎn)為下滑或者宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境變差時，離岸金融風(fēng)險系數(shù)也會增大。 本文在理論分析和實證分析離岸金融風(fēng)險水平的基礎(chǔ)上，結(jié)合我國當(dāng)前離岸金融發(fā)展的現(xiàn)狀，給出了防范和監(jiān)控我國離岸金融風(fēng)險的啟示和建議，具體包括：加強離岸金融市場風(fēng)險（利率風(fēng)險、匯率風(fēng)險）的監(jiān)控、預(yù)防資產(chǎn)價格泡沫向離岸金融體系傳導(dǎo)、明確監(jiān)控主體、更新監(jiān)管理念，創(chuàng)新監(jiān)管方式、完善離岸金融監(jiān)管的法律制度以及加強離岸金融風(fēng)險監(jiān)控的國際合作。
[Abstract]:China's offshore finance has made some achievements under the promotion of the strategy of "going out" and "opening up two markets", and at the same time, it has provided comprehensive financial services for Chinese enterprises to open up the international market, but offshore finance is expanding rapidly at the same time. There is also a greater risk. Therefore, in view of the weak awareness of offshore financial risk in China at present, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to carry out research on offshore financial risk. This paper analyzes the current situation of offshore financial research at home and abroad. The domestic research on offshore financial risk has just begun. Most scholars only analyze the regulatory experience of offshore financial markets in developed countries. There is little literature on offshore financial risk analysis. Therefore, based on the previous research, this paper systematically studies the influencing factors of offshore financial risk from the perspective of empirical research. First of all, it introduces the formation and development of offshore finance, and the development process and characteristics of offshore finance in China. At the same time, it analyzes and defines the risk of offshore finance, and then analyzes the risk of offshore finance from the theoretical point of view. Comprehensively determine the influencing factors of offshore financial risk and the relationship between each influencing factor and the level of offshore financial risk. Thirdly, by collecting the data of the relevant variables of Southeast Asian countries before and after the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, The influencing factors of offshore financial risk are empirically analyzed to verify the feasibility and practicability of the theoretical analysis results, and to explain and explain the empirical results. Finally, on the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis, According to the results of empirical analysis, this paper gives some suggestions on how to prevent and monitor the offshore financial risk level in China. Through theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper finds that the level of interest rate in offshore financial market is positively correlated with the level of offshore financial risk, and the rise of interest rate level of offshore financial market will lead to the rise of offshore financial risk level. When the degree of competition between offshore financial institutions intensifies, the level of offshore financial risk will also rise, when the asset price is overvalued, the level of offshore financial risk will rise when the asset price is overestimated, and the bubble economy, especially when the real estate price bubble is generated, the level of offshore financial risk will rise. The study also found that the offshore financial risk coefficient also increased when the economy changed from rising to falling or the macroeconomic environment became worse. On the basis of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of offshore financial risk level, combined with the current situation of offshore financial development in China, this paper gives the enlightenment and suggestions to prevent and monitor offshore financial risk in China. It includes: strengthening the supervision of offshore financial market risk (interest rate risk, exchange rate risk), preventing asset price bubble from transmitting to offshore financial system, defining the main monitoring body, renewing the supervision idea, innovating the supervision mode, Improve the legal system of offshore financial supervision and strengthen international cooperation in offshore financial risk monitoring.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南政法大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.5

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