【摘要】：研究我國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)價(jià)格變動(dòng)與宏觀因素變動(dòng)的關(guān)系,驗(yàn)證證券市場(chǎng)與實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)之間波動(dòng)規(guī)律,對(duì)于制定宏觀調(diào)控政策、引導(dǎo)理性健康投資、理順我國(guó)股市和實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系、促進(jìn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的良好運(yùn)行以及股市的健康規(guī)范發(fā)展,都具有非常重要的意義。 本文通過(guò)股票的價(jià)值和成長(zhǎng)性、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)周期、通貨膨脹、人民幣升值與股市流通市值、貨幣的供應(yīng)量與流動(dòng)性等幾個(gè)方面與股市的關(guān)系分析了股票的估值,這幾個(gè)方面通過(guò)不同的傳導(dǎo)途徑對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)產(chǎn)生了不同的影響。研究表明,價(jià)值投資和成長(zhǎng)性投資注重對(duì)上市公司的實(shí)際價(jià)值、盈利能力進(jìn)行合理的分析,進(jìn)而做出投資決策,而這種投資是建立在理性分析的基礎(chǔ)上的。股票市場(chǎng)在實(shí)際國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中運(yùn)行和發(fā)展,受到實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響。股市的周期應(yīng)該與經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期保持一致的,但是由于我國(guó)的股市存在各種缺陷和不足,在有些階段保持和經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行同樣的走勢(shì),通常在經(jīng)濟(jì)周期初期階段,經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇和輕微通貨膨脹時(shí)期,證券市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)呈現(xiàn)與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期正相關(guān)。但到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)后期,通貨膨脹不斷嚴(yán)重時(shí),證券市場(chǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期出現(xiàn)背離的態(tài)勢(shì)。通貨膨脹會(huì)引起商品相對(duì)價(jià)格的改變,從而對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)價(jià)格產(chǎn)生影響。在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的階段,通貨膨脹會(huì)出現(xiàn)溫和上漲的態(tài)勢(shì),股市也會(huì)出現(xiàn)上漲。在經(jīng)濟(jì)過(guò)熱時(shí),股市往往與經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)的關(guān)系。在經(jīng)濟(jì)回落時(shí),通貨膨脹得到控制,股市會(huì)上漲。而在經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時(shí),由于各種政策的存在,兩者的關(guān)系不確定。人民幣升值對(duì)資金面和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)都產(chǎn)生影響,從而影響股票估值。在短期內(nèi)人民幣升值主要改變了資金供需關(guān)系,長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)人民幣升值將對(duì)不同行業(yè)上市公司的盈利產(chǎn)生影響。貨幣供應(yīng)量主要通過(guò)資產(chǎn)組合效應(yīng)、通貨膨脹效應(yīng)、預(yù)期效應(yīng)和股票內(nèi)在價(jià)值增長(zhǎng)四個(gè)方面對(duì)股票價(jià)格產(chǎn)生影響。股票價(jià)格受到貨幣流動(dòng)性的影響,而貨幣流動(dòng)性受著貨幣政策的影響。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the relationship between the price change of the stock market and the change of macro factors, verifies the fluctuation law between the stock market and the actual economic activities, and guides the rational and healthy investment by formulating the macroeconomic regulation and control policy. It is of great significance to straighten out the relationship between the stock market and the real economy, to promote the good operation of the national economy and the healthy and standardized development of the stock market. This paper analyzes the stock valuation through the relationship between stock value and growth, macroeconomic cycle, inflation, RMB appreciation and market value, money supply and liquidity, etc. These aspects have different effects on the stock market through different transmission channels. The research shows that the value investment and the growth investment focus on the reasonable analysis of the actual value and profitability of the listed company, and then make the investment decision, which is based on the rational analysis. The stock market operates and develops in the actual national economy, is affected by the real economy. The stock market cycle should be consistent with the economic cycle, but due to the shortcomings and shortcomings of the stock market in China, in some stages to maintain the same trend as the economy, usually in the early stages of the economic cycle, During the period of economic recovery and mild inflation, the trend of the securities market is positively related to the economic cycle. However, in the latter stage of economic growth, the stock market deviates from the economic cycle when inflation becomes more and more serious. Inflation can cause changes in the relative prices of goods, which have an impact on stock market prices. In the recovery stage, inflation will show a moderate rise, the stock market will also rise. When the economy overheated, the stock market often presents the negative correlation with the economy. When the economy falls, inflation is contained and the stock market rises. In the economic depression, because of the existence of various policies, the relationship between the two is uncertain. The appreciation of the RMB has an impact on both the capital and the real economy, thus affecting stock valuations. In the short term, the appreciation of the RMB has mainly changed the relationship between supply and demand of funds. In the long run, the appreciation of the yuan will have an impact on the earnings of listed companies in different industries. Money supply affects stock price mainly through four aspects: portfolio effect, inflation effect, expected effect and intrinsic value increase of stock. Stock prices are influenced by monetary liquidity, which is influenced by monetary policy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51

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