【摘要】：從1990年12月19日上海證券交易所成立至今，在短短的20年中我國的證券市場得到了巨大的發(fā)展。但是縱觀我國證券市場發(fā)展的整個(gè)過程，可以發(fā)現(xiàn)一個(gè)現(xiàn)象：上市公司發(fā)放現(xiàn)金股利的比例普遍較低。國外的一些學(xué)者研究發(fā)現(xiàn)美國、英國、德國、日本等一些發(fā)達(dá)的證券市場也存在現(xiàn)金股利支付下降的現(xiàn)象，F(xiàn)ama(2001)稱之為“不斷消失的股利”現(xiàn)象。學(xué)者們嘗試用各種經(jīng)典股利理論來解釋這一現(xiàn)象，但都沒有給出完美的答案。Baker和Wurgler(2004)在行為金融學(xué)的基礎(chǔ)之上提出了一個(gè)新的股利理論——迎合理論，并且他們通過實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn)，迎合理論對美國證券市場的股利政策具有很好的解釋能力。由于我國的證券市場與美國的證券市場存在著很大差異，本文將研究迎合理論是否適用于我國的證券市場，是否對我國上市公司現(xiàn)金股利政策具有很好的解釋能力。 本文首先分析幾種經(jīng)典股利理論在我國證券市場運(yùn)用時(shí)存在的不足，，并詳細(xì)介紹了迎合理論的主要內(nèi)容。然后分析了我國證券市場股利發(fā)放情況以及我國證券市場的特征，發(fā)現(xiàn)我國上市公司現(xiàn)金股利支付比例確實(shí)很低；我國證券市場存在股權(quán)分置、一股獨(dú)大和中小股東保護(hù)薄弱的情況。顯然，從整個(gè)證券市場角度來分析來迎合理論的適用性有失嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)，因此本文設(shè)計(jì)分兩部分來實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)迎合理論在我國的適用性：管理者在制定現(xiàn)金股利政策時(shí)是否迎合中小股東的需求；管理者在制定現(xiàn)金股利政策時(shí)是否迎合大股東的需求。在第一部分實(shí)證分析中本文參照Baker和Wurgler（2004b）中的方法并進(jìn)行改進(jìn)，用兩階段回歸法進(jìn)行分析，實(shí)證結(jié)果表明管理者在制定現(xiàn)金股利政策是迎合中小股東的現(xiàn)金股利需求；在第二部分實(shí)證中，本文根據(jù)我國證券市場的特征，采用因子分析和逐步分析的方法進(jìn)行分析，結(jié)果表明管理者在制定現(xiàn)金股利政策時(shí)同樣迎合大股東的現(xiàn)金股利需求，這表明迎合理論在我國這樣的股權(quán)比較集中、中小股東保護(hù)不完善的證券市場具有適用性，對我國證券市場的現(xiàn)金股利政策具有很好的解釋能力。最后，進(jìn)行全文總結(jié)并指出本文研究的不足之處與下一步的研究展望。
[Abstract]:Since the establishment of Shanghai Stock Exchange on December 19, 1990, the stock market in China has been greatly developed in 20 years. But throughout the development of our securities market, we can find a phenomenon: the proportion of cash dividend issued by listed companies is generally low. Some foreign scholars have found that some developed stock markets such as the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan also have the phenomenon of declining cash dividend payment. Fama (2001) called it "disappearing dividend" phenomenon. Scholars tried to explain this phenomenon with various classical dividend theories, but none of them gave a perfect answer. Baker and Wurgler (2004) put forward a new dividend theory based on behavioral finance. Pandering to the theory of stock market dividend policy has a good ability to explain. Because there is a great difference between China's securities market and that of the United States, this paper will study whether the pandering theory is applicable to our country's securities market and whether it has a good ability to explain the cash dividend policy of listed companies in our country. This paper first analyzes the shortcomings of several classical dividend theories in China's securities market, and introduces the main contents of catering theory in detail. Then it analyzes the distribution of dividend and the characteristics of China's securities market, and finds that the proportion of cash dividend payment of listed companies in China is very low. A dominant and minority shareholders of the situation of weak protection. Obviously, analyzing the applicability of the theory from the perspective of the entire securities market is not rigorous enough. Therefore, this paper designs two parts to empirically test the applicability of catering theory in our country: whether the manager meets the needs of minority shareholders when formulating cash dividend policy, and whether the manager meets the needs of large shareholders when formulating cash dividend policy. In the first part of the empirical analysis, referring to the method of Baker and Wurgler (2004b) and improving it, the two-stage regression method is used to analyze. The empirical results show that the manager is making the cash dividend policy to meet the cash dividend demand of the minority shareholders; In the second part, according to the characteristics of China's securities market, this paper uses factor analysis and stepwise analysis to analyze the results. The results show that the managers also cater to the cash dividend demand of large shareholders when formulating the cash dividend policy. This indicates that the pandering theory is more concentrated in the stock rights of our country, and the minority shareholders' protection is not perfect in the stock market. It has a good ability to explain the cash dividend policy of the securities market in our country. At last, the thesis summarizes and points out the deficiency of this paper and the prospect of the next research.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F275;F832.51;F224

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