本文選題：地方政府 + 債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　； 參考：《新疆財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：改革開(kāi)放這三十多年來(lái)，我國(guó)的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)都得到了快速發(fā)展，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和社會(huì)進(jìn)步必須有資金的投入作為保障，但現(xiàn)如今，各級(jí)地方政府的財(cái)政資源相對(duì)匱乏，政府預(yù)算很難提供充足的資金用于經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)。因此，工業(yè)化與城鎮(zhèn)化的最終結(jié)果必將導(dǎo)致地方建設(shè)性融資需求增加。 1994年，我國(guó)實(shí)行分稅制改革，中央與地方重新界定財(cái)事權(quán)責(zé)，形成了“錢(qián)在中央，事在地方”的不合理格局。為了保證基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)項(xiàng)目順利開(kāi)展，，2003年，地方政府開(kāi)始以土地出讓收入作為擔(dān)保通過(guò)融資平臺(tái)公司籌集資金。到了2008年，我國(guó)為應(yīng)對(duì)次貸危機(jī)，出臺(tái)了4萬(wàn)億投資計(jì)劃，與之相匹配的財(cái)政激勵(lì)機(jī)制，致使地方政府融資平臺(tái)在隨后的兩年間積累了大量債務(wù)。由于《預(yù)算法》等法律明確規(guī)定，地方政府不得直接或間接通過(guò)舉債方式融資，所以，為了繞開(kāi)法律限制，巨大規(guī)模的債務(wù)就這樣被隱藏起來(lái)了。雖然現(xiàn)階段，我國(guó)已有四省市啟動(dòng)了發(fā)債試點(diǎn)，但距離地方政府債務(wù)信息徹底公開(kāi)透明化尚需時(shí)日。2011年，我國(guó)開(kāi)始實(shí)行穩(wěn)健的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策抑制通貨膨脹，政策的轉(zhuǎn)向并沒(méi)有使地方政府債務(wù)形勢(shì)發(fā)生扭轉(zhuǎn)，我國(guó)的地方債始終處于高位運(yùn)行，由此帶來(lái)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)已經(jīng)初露端倪。因此，管理控制地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，確保社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)更好更快、健康穩(wěn)定地可持續(xù)發(fā)展已經(jīng)迫在眉睫。實(shí)踐證實(shí)，建立預(yù)警體系是化解地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、避免債務(wù)危機(jī)爆發(fā)的重要環(huán)節(jié)。 本文旨在總結(jié)國(guó)外地方政府債務(wù)管理經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)的基礎(chǔ)之上，通過(guò)分析我國(guó)地方債的現(xiàn)狀和問(wèn)題，構(gòu)建模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)警模型并驗(yàn)證其可行性，進(jìn)而提出防范我國(guó)地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:In the past 30 years or so since the reform and opening up, the national economy and infrastructure construction of our country have developed rapidly. Economic growth and social progress must be guaranteed by the investment of funds. But now, the financial resources of local governments at all levels are relatively scarce. It is difficult for the government budget to provide sufficient funds for economic construction. Therefore, the final result of industrialization and urbanization will inevitably lead to an increase in the local constructive financing demand. In 1994, China implemented the reform of the tax sharing system, and the central and local governments redefined the powers and responsibilities of financial affairs, forming "money in the central government." The unreasonable pattern of local affairs. In order to ensure the smooth development of infrastructure projects, in 2003, local governments began to raise funds through financing platform companies with land transfer income as a guarantee. In 2008, in order to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis, China issued a $4 trillion investment plan, which matched with the fiscal incentive mechanism, resulting in the local government financing platform accumulated a large amount of debt in the following two years. Because laws such as the Budget Law explicitly stipulate that local governments cannot borrow money directly or indirectly, huge amounts of debt are thus hidden in order to circumvent legal restrictions. Although at this stage, four provinces and cities in China have launched a pilot bond issue, it is still some time before local government debt information is completely open and transparent. In 2011, China began to implement a sound economic policy to curb inflation. The change of policy has not changed the situation of local government debt, and the local debt of our country is always in high position. Therefore, it is urgent to manage and control the local government debt risk, to ensure a better and faster social economy and a healthy and stable sustainable development. Practice has proved that the establishment of early warning system is an important link to resolve the debt risk of local government and avoid the outbreak of debt crisis. On the basis of summing up the experience and lessons of foreign local government debt management, this paper analyzes the present situation and problems of local debt in China, constructs a fuzzy neural network early warning model and verifies its feasibility. Then put forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the local government debt risk.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F812.5

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