本文選題：股票市場(chǎng)估值水平 + 管理層過(guò)度自信　； 參考：《中南大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：并購(gòu)是公司資本配置的重要形式之一,也是實(shí)現(xiàn)資本要素流通和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整的重要手段。國(guó)內(nèi)外的理論和實(shí)證研究表明證券市場(chǎng)環(huán)境和管理者自身的非理性行為會(huì)對(duì)公司的并購(gòu)行為產(chǎn)生影響。本文在借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)者相關(guān)研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,從探究我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)估值和管理層行為對(duì)公司并購(gòu)決策的影響入手,研究股票市場(chǎng)估值水平、管理層過(guò)度自信與并購(gòu)績(jī)效的關(guān)系。 本文以滬深兩市2001-2009年間446家上市公司發(fā)生的673起并購(gòu)事件為研究樣本,使用事件研究法和會(huì)計(jì)研究法來(lái)衡量短期市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)和長(zhǎng)期業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn),基于影響并購(gòu)績(jī)效的兩大假說(shuō)即股票市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)并購(gòu)理論和管理者過(guò)度自信假說(shuō)建立本文的研究假設(shè),對(duì)股票市場(chǎng)估值、管理層過(guò)度自信及其二者交互作用與并購(gòu)績(jī)效的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),得到的具體結(jié)論如下：(1)股票市場(chǎng)估值是企業(yè)進(jìn)行并購(gòu)活動(dòng)的重要驅(qū)動(dòng)因素,與市場(chǎng)低估時(shí)期相比,市場(chǎng)高估時(shí)期發(fā)生更多的并購(gòu)活動(dòng)。股票市場(chǎng)估值水平與并購(gòu)績(jī)效顯著相關(guān),與市場(chǎng)低估時(shí)期相比,在市場(chǎng)高估時(shí)期發(fā)生的并購(gòu)能獲得更高的市場(chǎng)公告效應(yīng),但是在市場(chǎng)低估時(shí)期發(fā)生的并購(gòu)能獲得更高的長(zhǎng)期績(jī)效。(2)管理層過(guò)度自信與并購(gòu)績(jī)效呈顯著負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。獨(dú)立董事比例與并購(gòu)績(jī)效呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系,獨(dú)立董事比例越高,企業(yè)的并購(gòu)績(jī)效越好。(3)從股票市場(chǎng)估值和管理者過(guò)度自信的交互影響回歸結(jié)果得出,在股票市場(chǎng)高估時(shí)期,理性管理者的并購(gòu)方將獲得更好的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)。在市場(chǎng)低估時(shí)期,非過(guò)度自信的并購(gòu)方發(fā)生的并購(gòu),長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)更好。(4)股權(quán)分置改革是否實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)并購(gòu)質(zhì)量有積極的影響。內(nèi)部現(xiàn)金流、凈資產(chǎn)收益率(ROE)與并購(gòu)績(jī)效有顯著的正相關(guān)關(guān)系。
[Abstract]:M & A is one of the important forms of corporate capital allocation, and it is also an important means to realize the circulation of capital elements and the adjustment of industrial structure. Theoretical and empirical studies at home and abroad show that the securities market environment and the irrational behavior of managers themselves will have an impact on mergers and acquisitions. Based on the research results of domestic and foreign scholars, this paper studies the valuation level of stock market from the perspective of capital market valuation and the influence of management behavior on corporate M & A decision. The relationship between management overconfidence and M & A performance. Based on 673 M & A events of 446 listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2001 to 2009, this paper uses event research method and accounting research method to measure short-term market reaction and long-term performance. Based on the two hypotheses that affect the performance of M & A, the stock market driven M & A theory and the manager overconfidence hypothesis, the research hypotheses of this paper are established to evaluate the stock market. The relationship between management overconfidence and its interaction with M & A performance is empirically tested. The specific conclusions are as follows: (1) Stock market valuation is an important driving factor for M & A activities, compared with the period of market undervaluation. There is more M & A activity in the period of market overvaluation. The valuation level of stock market is significantly related to the performance of M & A. Compared with the period of market undervaluation, mergers and acquisitions in the period of market overvaluation can obtain higher market announcement effect. However, M & A in the period of market undervaluation can achieve higher long-term performance. (2) Management overconfidence has a significant negative correlation with M & A performance. The proportion of independent directors is positively correlated with M & A performance, and the higher the proportion of independent directors is, the better the M & A performance of enterprises is. (3) from the regression results of the interaction between stock market valuation and overconfidence of managers, we can conclude that in the period of overvaluation of stock market, Rational managers of mergers and acquisitions will get a better market response. In the period of market undervaluation, the long-term performance of M & A is better than that of non-overconfident M & A. (4) the realization of the split share structure reform has a positive effect on the quality of M & A. There is a significant positive correlation between internal cash flow, ROE and M & A performance.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51;F271

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