本文選題：地方政府 + 債務風險　； 參考：《復旦大學》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：20世紀80年代,拉美的債務危機以后,政府債務問題開始引起世界關注。而20世紀90年代末期東南亞金融危機爆發(fā)后,政府債務危機再次吸引了世界的目光。而本輪始于2009年11月的迪拜主權(quán)債務危機的歐洲和美國主權(quán)債務危機更是引發(fā)了世界各國的高度關注。 在中國,由于地方政府利用其控制的融資平臺不規(guī)范地對外大肆舉債,最終給地方政府造成了巨額的債務規(guī)模,由于該債務規(guī)模大大超過了地方政府的財力,從而使地方政府面臨著巨大的債務風險。由于這種風險可能引起中國政治、經(jīng)濟與社會的災難,所以,中國中央政府和社會各界高度關注,地方政府債務風險成為中國亟待解決的重大問題。 綜上所述,政府債務風險這個重大的經(jīng)濟社會問題已成為包括中國在內(nèi)的世界各國的關注焦點。對地方政府債務風險問題加以研究,對中國學者而言更是有著重大的現(xiàn)實意義,事實上近兩年為數(shù)眾多的專家學者對這個問題進行了廣泛的研究,并形成了一些研究結(jié)論,然而本人認為,這些研究結(jié)論沒有能夠循著地方政府債務這個具有涉及政治、經(jīng)濟、法律、社會、文化等社會各個系統(tǒng)特點的問題進行系統(tǒng)全面的研究,因而也沒有能夠揭示地方政府債務風險產(chǎn)生的根本原因,從而亟待深入。 本文基于經(jīng)濟社會學的視角,也即將地方政府債務嵌入到社會大系統(tǒng)中去,同時考慮政治制度、法律、社會、文化等社會構(gòu)成要素對它的影響,對地方政府債務風險問題進行了研究。 本文的分析思路是這樣安排的：首先提出問題,通過對研究背景的介紹和分析提出了本文的論題——中國地方政府債務風險問題,同時通過對地方政府債務風險跨領域、跨學科特征的分析提出了經(jīng)濟社會學的分析思路；然后正式開始問題的分析,文章采用經(jīng)濟社會學的視角分別從風險的識別、現(xiàn)狀、形成原因及演進機制等各個層面對地方政府債務風險問題進行了分析；最后分技術(shù)和制度兩個層面,也即治標和治本兩個角度,提出了關于中國地方政府債務風險的治理對策。 根據(jù)這樣的分析思路,我們把全文分為七章,各章主要內(nèi)容如下： 第一章為導論部分,主要是提出問題,說明研究目標、研究意義、研究方法及論文結(jié)構(gòu),同時為確定研究范圍還對有關概念進行了界定。 第二章主要對本文選題的相關研究文獻進行了回顧和評述,同時對本文所需采用的經(jīng)濟社會學的相關理論進行了分析和介紹,然后在此基礎上,提出了本文的地方政府債務風險相關問題的經(jīng)濟社會學研究方法。 第三章主要運用經(jīng)濟社會學的相關理論和方法對地方政府債務風險的識別標準問題進行了研究。我們認為,地方政府債務風險識別的定性標準應該是：地方政府因無力履行其未來應當承擔的債務償還責任和義務,以至于引發(fā)對本地政治、經(jīng)濟、法律等制度變化、或者對本地經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、社會穩(wěn)定乃至國家層面的政治、經(jīng)濟、法律等制度變化、經(jīng)濟發(fā)展以及社會穩(wěn)定等構(gòu)成強大消極壓力的可能性,傳統(tǒng)的定性標準實際上屬于財政風險的范疇�？紤]一個國家的政治、經(jīng)濟、法制、文化等復雜的制度性因素的影響,我們認為簡單地采用政府債務風險判別的國際警戒線指標是不合適的,一個全球通用的確定的數(shù)量標準并不存在。我們需要在參考債務數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上,綜合考察各國或各地區(qū)具體的制度環(huán)境,并根據(jù)其相應的的制度或經(jīng)濟、社會敏感性標準對地方政府債務風險的存在與否進行判斷。 第四章對地方政府債務風險的現(xiàn)狀進行了分析。本部分在研究國內(nèi)各方面調(diào)查研究成果和筆者深度訪談的基礎上,采用國際權(quán)威的債務風險矩陣工具,對我國地方政府債務總體規(guī)模進行了估算,估算的結(jié)果是我國的地方政府債務規(guī)模至少達到158813.89億元。接著我們根據(jù)我們建立的債務風險識別標準,對地方政府債務風險的現(xiàn)狀進行了具體分析,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)如此巨額的債務規(guī)模確實對中國地方政府構(gòu)成了巨大的風險,因為它對中國的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、金融穩(wěn)定,社會穩(wěn)定、社會信任及政府形象確實可能產(chǎn)生危害,同時它還將可能倒逼中國相關財政經(jīng)濟制度或法律的改變,這符合在第三章中我們構(gòu)建的地方政府債務風險的識別標準。 第五章對地方政府債務風險的成因及演進機制進行了經(jīng)濟社會學視角的分析。分析發(fā)現(xiàn)：日益發(fā)展的市場經(jīng)濟以及由市場經(jīng)濟造成的以自我意識和利己思想為特征的社會結(jié)構(gòu),與中國的自建國以來沒有什么顯著變化的根本政治經(jīng)濟制度及其要求的正式的社會規(guī)則產(chǎn)生矛盾,這種矛盾同時造成大量可供政府官員尋租的體制環(huán)境(比如說政府的強勢地位、民間經(jīng)濟活躍且弱勢、法制建設不完善、國民弱勢等)；新的以利己意識為特征的社會意識形態(tài)作用下形成的非正式規(guī)則逐漸取代黨和政府要求的正式規(guī)則而對人們包括對地方官員的行為選擇起主導作用,結(jié)果導致中央政府對地方政府的控制力日益削弱,并且對地方政府的各種行為,包括舉債行為,面臨著日益嚴重的信息不對稱和逐漸無能為力的局面；人民缺乏對政府行為的有效監(jiān)督機制和權(quán)力。于是根本性的制度性不一致以及由這個不一致造成的中央政府作為委托人地位的削弱,加上人民缺乏對政府官員有效監(jiān)督權(quán)力,三者共同作用造成了地方政府債務風險的產(chǎn)生。 第五章還從制度嵌入的委托代理的角度對上述結(jié)論進行了理論論證,同時還通過案例分析的方法對它們進行了實證檢驗。 關于地方政府債務風險的演進,第五章認為,地方政府債務風險的演進是中央政府和地方政府基于各自利益相互博弈的結(jié)果。在中國的根本性制度環(huán)境沒有得到解決之前,地方政府債務風險仍然會以各種不同的形式演進、發(fā)展。但是由于政府可能采取的各種技術(shù)性對策會在一定階段對債務風險起到一定的遏制或緩和作用,所以地方政府債務風險的演進、發(fā)展可能會是一種波浪式的模式。 第六章在地方政府債務風險產(chǎn)生原因和演進機制分析的基礎上,提出了地方政府債務風險治理的技術(shù)性對策和制度性對策,其中技術(shù)性對策是指即使在現(xiàn)有制度條件下也可以發(fā)生作用的對策；而制度性對策則是一種根治地方政府債務風險的思考。制度性對策的實施通常是一個長期性的漸進的過程。 第七章在總結(jié)了全文的主要觀點的同時,重點指出了本文創(chuàng)新點以及存在的不足,并對有待深入的研究領域進行了一個展望。
[Abstract]:After Latin America ' s debt crisis in the 1980s and Latin America , the government ' s debt crisis began to attract the attention of the world . And after the Southeast Asian financial crisis broke out in the late 1990s , the government ' s debt crisis once again attracted the world ' s attention . The crisis in Europe and the United States , which began in Dubai ' s sovereign debt crisis in November 2009 , has raised the world ' s attention .

In China , the local government has caused huge debt to the local government because the local government uses its controlled financing platform to raise its debts without regulating the external debt . As the scale of the debt greatly exceeds the financial resources of the local government , the local government faces a huge debt risk . As such risks may cause the political , economic and social disasters in China , the central government and the community of China are highly concerned , and the risk of local government debt becomes a major problem that China needs to solve urgently .

To sum up , the major economic and social problems of government debt risk have become the focus of attention of all countries , including China . In fact , the study of local government debt risk is of great practical significance . In fact , many experts and scholars have conducted extensive research on this problem in recent two years , and have formed some research conclusions . However , I believe that these conclusions are not able to reveal the root cause of local government debt risk , and thus need to be deepened .

On the basis of the angle of economic sociology , we also put the local government debt into the system of society , taking into account the influence of political system , law , society , culture and other social factors on it , and studied the problem of local government debt risk .

In this paper , the author put forward the problem , and put forward the subject of this paper by introducing and analyzing the background of the research . The paper puts forward the analysis thought of economic sociology through the analysis of the cross - disciplinary characteristics of local government debt risk .
Then formally begin the analysis of the problem , the paper uses the angle of economic sociology to analyze the risk of local government debt from the risk identification , the present situation , the formation reason and the evolution mechanism , etc .
At last , two aspects of technology and system , namely , the two aspects of governance and governance , put forward the countermeasures of governance of local government debt risk in China .

According to this analysis , we divide the whole text into seven chapters , the main contents of each chapter are as follows :

The first chapter is the introduction part , mainly raises the question , explains the research goal , the research significance , the research method and the paper structure , and also defines the relevant concepts for the purpose of determining the scope of the study .

In the second chapter , the author reviews and comments on the relevant research literature in this paper . At the same time , the relevant theories of economic sociology adopted in this paper are analyzed and introduced . Then , the economic sociology research method of local government debt risk related problems is put forward .

The third chapter mainly applies the relevant theories and methods of economic sociology to study the recognition standard of local government debt risk . We believe that the qualitative criterion of local government debt risk identification should be : the local government can not carry out the system changes such as local politics , economy , law , etc .

In chapter 4 , the present situation of local government debt risk is analyzed . Based on the study of domestic research achievements and the author ' s deep interview , this part estimates the overall scale of local government debt by using the international authoritative debt risk matrix tool . We find that such a huge debt scale does harm to China ' s local government . We find that such a huge debt scale does harm to Chinese local government , and it will also push China ' s relevant financial and economic system or law to change , which is in line with the recognition standard of the local government debt risk in chapter 3 .

The fifth chapter analyzes the causes and evolution mechanism of local government debt risk from the angle of economic sociology . It is found that the increasingly developing market economy and the social structure characterized by self - consciousness and egoism caused by market economy are inconsistent with China ' s fundamental political and economic system which has not changed significantly since the founding of the Republic of China .
The informal rules formed by the new social ideology characterized by egoism gradually replace the formal rules required by the Party and the government . The result has led to the weakening of the central government ' s control over the local government , and the various acts of the local government , including the debt - raising behavior , and the increasingly serious information asymmetry and the gradual inability to do so ;
The lack of effective supervision mechanism and power for the government ' s actions . The fundamental institutional inconsistency and the weakening of the central government as the client ' s status caused by this inconsistency , together with the lack of effective supervision of the power of the government officials , have caused the local government debt risk .

The fifth chapter also proves the above conclusion from the perspective of the principal agent embedded in the system , and also makes an empirical test on them through case analysis .

With regard to the evolution of local government debt risk , the fifth chapter believes that the evolution of the local government debt risk is the result of the mutual game between the central government and the local government . Until the fundamental institutional environment in China has not been resolved , the local government debt risk will evolve and develop in a variety of different forms . However , the development of the local government debt risk may be a wave mode because the government may take various technical countermeasures to restrain or mitigate the debt risk in a certain stage .

In the sixth chapter , on the basis of the analysis of the causes and the evolution mechanism of the local government ' s debt risk , the paper puts forward the technical countermeasures and the institutional countermeasures of the local government debt risk management , in which the technical countermeasures refer to the countermeasures which can also occur even under the existing system conditions ;
The institutional response is a reflection of local government debt risk . The implementation of institutional countermeasure is usually a long - term gradual process .

Chapter 7 summarizes the main viewpoints of the text , points out the innovation points in this paper as well as the deficiency existing in this paper , and makes a prospect in the field of research to be in - depth .
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F812.5

【引證文獻】

相關期刊論文 前4條

1 馬改艷;;我國地方債務風險隱患、成因及化解對策[J];西部論壇;2014年02期

2 路文婷;;地方政府債務風險防范與治理探討[J];合作經(jīng)濟與科技;2014年04期

3 李經(jīng)緯;唐鑫;;地方政府債務風險演進機制分析——一個基于網(wǎng)絡嵌入的博弈視角[J];社會科學家;2013年01期

4 李經(jīng)緯;唐鑫;;中國地方政府債券發(fā)行制度設計思考——基于國際經(jīng)驗和新經(jīng)濟社會學視角[J];社會科學家;2014年06期

相關碩士學位論文 前1條

1 李陽子;Y縣地方政府性債務風險分析[D];蘭州商學院;2014年

，

本文編號：2018267