本文選題：股票市場(chǎng) + 國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)��； 參考：《山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：21世紀(jì)的經(jīng)濟(jì)，既是一種知識(shí)為本的經(jīng)濟(jì)，又是一種金融化的經(jīng)濟(jì)。經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的本質(zhì)就是資本全球化、金融全球化，而證券市場(chǎng)在金融市場(chǎng)處于舉足輕重的地位，與銀行業(yè)、保險(xiǎn)業(yè)共居于金融業(yè)的核心地位。當(dāng)代的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一致認(rèn)為，金融業(yè)的發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有巨大的杠桿效應(yīng)，現(xiàn)代科學(xué)技術(shù)與金融的有效結(jié)合，亦在實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)中發(fā)揮了堅(jiān)不可摧的推動(dòng)作用，從一定程度可以說(shuō)，虛擬經(jīng)濟(jì)是實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的催化劑，因此現(xiàn)代金融已經(jīng)成為當(dāng)代世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的核心動(dòng)力，同樣促進(jìn)著經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展，因此，研究證券市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。 中國(guó)股市短短20多年，歷經(jīng)風(fēng)雨，變化反復(fù)無(wú)常，運(yùn)行規(guī)律讓人琢磨不透，中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行是否具有一致性關(guān)系到很多人的利益。因而，對(duì)中國(guó)股市與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的研究很有必要。 早在100多年前道氏理論就詳細(xì)地說(shuō)明了股票市場(chǎng)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)之間的關(guān)系，像美國(guó)這樣成熟的資本市場(chǎng)中，股票市場(chǎng)高度市場(chǎng)化，股票市場(chǎng)與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)之間有著緊密的聯(lián)系。股票市場(chǎng)晴雨表功能是本文寫(xiě)作的基礎(chǔ)理論，在美國(guó)，股價(jià)指數(shù)作為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的先行指標(biāo)，，提前反映國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行態(tài)勢(shì)，可以借鑒美國(guó)股市的發(fā)展，來(lái)研究中國(guó)股市與國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的關(guān)系，而在中國(guó)，股票市場(chǎng)化程度不夠、行政干預(yù)過(guò)度、腐敗現(xiàn)象過(guò)多等等負(fù)面因素很多，導(dǎo)致中國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)反映不及美國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)對(duì)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的反映，本文通過(guò)VAR（向量自回歸）模型研究了我國(guó)九個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)之間的關(guān)系，先進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)，再對(duì)平穩(wěn)的變量進(jìn)行格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)，建立VAR模型，并檢驗(yàn)?zāi)Ｐ偷姆�(wěn)定性，在VAR模型的基礎(chǔ)上用到脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解，全面闡釋經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)之間的相互關(guān)系和相互影響，從中找出中國(guó)股市存在的問(wèn)題，并提出了相應(yīng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:The economy of the 21 st century is not only a knowledge-based economy, but also a financialized economy. The essence of economic globalization is capital globalization, financial globalization, and the securities market in the financial market in a pivotal position, with the banking industry, insurance industry in the core position of the financial industry. Contemporary economists agree that the development of the financial industry has a huge leverage effect on economic growth, and that the effective combination of modern science and technology with finance has also played an impenetrable role in the real economy. To a certain extent, it can be said that The virtual economy is the catalyst of the real economy, so modern finance has become the core power of the economic growth in the contemporary world, and it also promotes the rapid development of the economy. It is of practical significance to study the relationship between securities market and macro-economy. The Chinese stock market has been through the wind and rain for more than 20 years and has changed capriciously. It is difficult to figure out whether the operation of Chinese stock market and macro economy is consistent or not, which is related to the interests of many people. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationship between Chinese stock market and macro-economy. As early as more than 100 years ago, Taoist theory explained in detail the relationship between the stock market and the national economy. In a mature capital market like the United States, the stock market is highly market-oriented, and there is a close connection between the stock market and the national economy. The function of the barometer of the stock market is the basic theory of this paper. In the United States, stock price index, as a leading indicator of the macro economy, reflects the operational situation of the national economy in advance, and can draw lessons from the development of the stock market in the United States. To study the relationship between China's stock market and the national economy. In China, there are many negative factors such as insufficient marketization of the stock market, excessive administrative intervention, excessive corruption and so on. As a result, China's stock market is not as responsive to the national economy as the American stock market is. This paper studies the relationship between the nine macroeconomic indicators in China by using the VAR (Vector autoregressive) model, and carries out the unit root test first. Then Granger causality test is carried out on the stationary variables, VAR model is established, and the stability of the model is tested. On the basis of the VAR model, pulse response function and variance decomposition are used to fully explain the interrelation and mutual influence between economic indicators. Find out the existing problems in Chinese stock market, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.51;F124;F224

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