本文選題：二板市場(chǎng) + 區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異��； 參考：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年博士論文

【摘要】：本文基于一個(gè)背景——二板市場(chǎng)成立與快速發(fā)展,一個(gè)現(xiàn)象——04到06年區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異轉(zhuǎn)而縮小,引出一個(gè)問(wèn)題——中國(guó)二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展是否會(huì)縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異,得到一個(gè)結(jié)論——二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展縮小了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異,提出兩項(xiàng)建議——發(fā)展二板市場(chǎng)、推動(dòng)落后地區(qū)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變提升。 首先,本文回顧了中國(guó)二板市場(chǎng)成立以來(lái)的發(fā)展情況,發(fā)現(xiàn)有兩個(gè)特點(diǎn)：是成長(zhǎng)較快,上市公司數(shù)量從04年6月的10家上升至2012年1月的936家,市值從剛成立時(shí)的165億元人民幣上升至當(dāng)前的近四萬(wàn)億；二是上市公司分布不均衡,即行業(yè)分布和區(qū)域分布不均衡。而與此同時(shí),區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異在2004到06年間轉(zhuǎn)而出現(xiàn)下降趨勢(shì)。筆者對(duì)此進(jìn)行了相關(guān)性分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)兩者之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)為-0.7～-0.8之間。這引發(fā)筆者對(duì)兩者關(guān)系進(jìn)行研究。 首先,筆者利用格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)、邊限協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和ARDL估計(jì)等實(shí)證方法對(duì)于二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展是否存在縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的作用進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),結(jié)果表明,二板市場(chǎng)市值每增加1%,各省GDP總量變異系數(shù)下降0.0399,二板市場(chǎng)市值每增加1億元,各省人均GDP變異系數(shù)下降0.337E-5。 從邏輯上講,二板市場(chǎng)縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異,必然是通過(guò)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有影響,且在各地區(qū)影響不同來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)。筆者分別考察了二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響和對(duì)各地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響的差異。ARDL模型結(jié)果顯示,二板市場(chǎng)市值每增加1億元,GDP大約增加1.2679億元。隨后,本文通過(guò)變系數(shù)面板模型發(fā)現(xiàn),二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展對(duì)落后地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)作用更大,對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)作用相對(duì)較小,從而二板市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展引起了區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的縮小。此后三章,筆者從區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)差異的角度分析了這一機(jī)制為什么會(huì)發(fā)生以及如何發(fā)生 第四章從各地區(qū)中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平差異的角度解釋二板市場(chǎng)為何會(huì)對(duì)落后地區(qū)促進(jìn)作用大而對(duì)發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)促進(jìn)作用小從而縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異。通過(guò)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,筆者發(fā)現(xiàn)東部省市中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平高,而中西部地區(qū)中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平低,但相對(duì)于人均GDP差異來(lái)說(shuō),中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平差異要小。由于二板市場(chǎng)按照各省市中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平配置資源而非按照人均GDP配置資源,因此,二板市場(chǎng)對(duì)落后地區(qū)的推動(dòng)作用就相對(duì)更大。筆者通過(guò)理論分析證明了這一結(jié)論,當(dāng)中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平差異與區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的比值小于某一個(gè)臨界值時(shí),二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展會(huì)縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異,當(dāng)大于臨界值時(shí)會(huì)擴(kuò)大差異。隨后本文通過(guò)實(shí)證模型驗(yàn)證了這一結(jié)論。而從機(jī)制上來(lái)說(shuō),二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展對(duì)落后地區(qū)的中小企業(yè)的促進(jìn)作用更大,使得區(qū)域中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平差異縮小,而中小企業(yè)本身即為經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)組成部分,其他條件不變的情況下,區(qū)域中小企業(yè)發(fā)展水平差異縮小將意味著區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的縮小。 第五章和第六章則分別從區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異和區(qū)域金融發(fā)展水平差異的角度進(jìn)行分析。從區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異的角度來(lái)說(shuō),同第四章相似,理論上亦存在-個(gè)臨界值,只有當(dāng)區(qū)域產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異小于臨界值時(shí),二板市場(chǎng)才會(huì)縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異,實(shí)證模型支持這一結(jié)論,機(jī)制上,二板市場(chǎng)主要是通過(guò)推動(dòng)產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)移來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)落后地區(qū)更快的產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí),從而縮小產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)差異、縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的；從金融發(fā)展水平差異的角度來(lái)說(shuō),存在同樣相似的臨界值,實(shí)證模型亦支持二板市場(chǎng)縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異,從機(jī)制上來(lái)說(shuō),二板市場(chǎng)是通過(guò)對(duì)落后地區(qū)融資的改善程度更大,從而對(duì)落后地區(qū)的投資推動(dòng)作用更大來(lái)縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的。 全文最后,筆者認(rèn)為縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異可以從兩方面著手：一是促進(jìn)二板市場(chǎng)發(fā)展,二是推動(dòng)落后地區(qū)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)變提升,縮小區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)差異。
[Abstract]:Based on a background - the establishment and rapid development of the second board market, a phenomenon - the difference in regional economic growth from 04 to 06 years has been reduced, which leads to a problem - whether the development of China's second board market will reduce the difference in regional economic growth, and get a conclusion that the development of the second board market has narrowed the difference in regional economic growth. The two proposal is to develop the second board market and promote the transformation and upgrading of the real economy in the backward areas.
First, this paper reviews the development of China's second board market since its establishment, and found that there are two characteristics: the growth is fast, the number of listed companies rose from 10 in June to 936 in January 2012, the market value has risen from 16 billion 500 million yuan to the current of nearly four trillion, and the two is the disequilibrium of the listed companies, that is, the industry points. The distribution of cloth and region is not balanced. At the same time, the regional economic growth difference between 2004 and 06 turns down from 2004 to 06. The correlation analysis between the author and the author finds that the correlation coefficient between the two is between the two. This leads to the author's study on the relationship between the two.
First, the author uses Grainger causality test, edge cointegration test and ARDL estimation to test whether the development of the second board market exists to reduce the difference in regional economic growth. The results show that the market value of the second board market is increased by 1%, the coefficient of variation of GDP in the provinces is reduced by 0.0399, and the market value of the second board market is increased by 100 million yuan. The per capita GDP coefficient of variation in each province decreased by 0.337E-5.
Logically, the second board market narrowing the difference in regional economic growth is bound to be achieved through the impact on economic growth and in different regions. The author examines the difference between the impact of the development of the second board market on economic growth and the impact of the economic growth on the economic growth of various regions. The.ARDL model shows that the market value of the second board market increases by 100 million. Yuan, GDP increases about 126 million 790 thousand yuan. Then, through the variable coefficient panel model, it is found that the development of the second board market has a greater role in promoting the economic growth of the backward areas, and is relatively small in promoting the economic growth of the developed regions. Thus the development of the second board market has caused the narrowing of the regional economic growth difference. In the following three chapters, the author from the region From the perspective of economic structural differences, this paper analyzes why and how this mechanism occurs.
The fourth chapter explains why the second board market will play a great role in the backward areas and reduce the difference of regional economic growth in the developed areas from the perspective of the difference of the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises in various regions. But it is low, but relative to the difference of GDP per capita, the difference of the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises is small. Because the second board market configuring the resources according to the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises in various provinces and cities rather than the per capita GDP allocation of resources, the second board market has a greater role in promoting the backward areas. When the ratio of the difference between the development level of small enterprises and the regional economic growth is less than a certain critical value, the development of the second board market will reduce the difference in regional economic growth, and it will expand the difference when the critical value is larger than the critical value. Then, the conclusion is verified by the empirical model. And the second board market is developed to the small and medium enterprises in the backward areas. The promotion of the industry is more important, which makes the difference in the development level of small and medium-sized enterprises in the region narrowing, and the small and medium enterprises themselves are a part of the economy. Under the same conditions, the narrowing of the development level of the small and medium-sized enterprises in the region will mean the reduction of the regional economic growth difference.
The fifth chapter and the sixth chapter are analyzed from the angle of regional industrial structure difference and the difference of regional financial development level respectively. From the angle of regional industrial structure difference, it is similar to the fourth chapter, and there is a critical value in theory. Only when the regional industrial structure difference is less than the boundary value, the second board market will reduce the regional economic growth. The empirical model supports this conclusion. On the mechanism, the second board market is mainly through promoting industrial transfer to achieve faster industrial upgrading in backward areas, thus reducing industrial structure differences and reducing regional economic growth differences. From the perspective of financial development level, there are similar critical values and empirical models are supported. The second board market reduces the difference in regional economic growth. From the mechanism, the second board market has a greater improvement in the financing of the backward areas, thus promoting the investment in the backward areas to reduce the regional economic growth difference.
Finally, the author believes that the reduction of regional economic growth differences can start from two aspects: first, to promote the development of the second board market, the two is to promote the transformation and promotion of the real economy in the backward areas, and to narrow the regional economic structure differences.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F124

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8 黃s，

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