本文選題：股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展 + 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)　； 參考：《河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：作為金融市場(chǎng)重要組成部門的股票市場(chǎng),其在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的作用不容忽視。通常理論認(rèn)為,股票市場(chǎng)可通過財(cái)富效應(yīng)、資源配置、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分散等途徑來影響經(jīng)濟(jì)�？v觀國內(nèi)大量研究文獻(xiàn),大多學(xué)者均采用國外研究方法,利用中國的數(shù)據(jù)來進(jìn)行模擬,指標(biāo)多選取相對(duì)指標(biāo)。本文在前人研究的基礎(chǔ)上,利用原始絕對(duì)數(shù)據(jù),來分析我國股票一級(jí)市場(chǎng)和二級(jí)市場(chǎng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。一級(jí)市場(chǎng)用融資額來代表,二級(jí)市場(chǎng)用成交額和市值來代表,然后分別考察它們與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)(用名義GDP表示)的關(guān)系。 本文首先根據(jù)傳統(tǒng)理論認(rèn)識(shí),采用了最小二乘法進(jìn)行回歸,接著格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn),實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,我國股票市場(chǎng)融資規(guī)模與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)存在正相關(guān),但經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是直接融資擴(kuò)大的原因,從而說明股票一級(jí)市場(chǎng)更多的體現(xiàn)為融資功能,資源配置功能未能有效發(fā)揮。成交金額與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間不僅存在正相關(guān),而且互為因果關(guān)系,從而說明我國股票市場(chǎng)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)較大,股票市場(chǎng)的繁榮不僅可以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),而且經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)也可以反向促進(jìn)股票市場(chǎng)的繁榮。股票市場(chǎng)市值與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間存在正相關(guān),并且經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是股票市場(chǎng)規(guī)模擴(kuò)大的原因,從而說明我國股票市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)出初級(jí)發(fā)展階段的特征。鑒于本文研究的重點(diǎn)在于股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,撇開市值和融資額,對(duì)成交量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)建立VAR模型進(jìn)行脈沖響應(yīng)分析。結(jié)果顯示,在滯后2期的情況下,給予市場(chǎng)成交額一個(gè)正的沖擊,對(duì)GDP的影響在第二年達(dá)到了最大,并且為負(fù)值,從而得到和以往學(xué)者研究結(jié)論相同,即股票市場(chǎng)的泡沫,將導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)衰退。 縱觀我國滬深交易所成立以來的股票市場(chǎng)發(fā)展,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)雖然我國資本市場(chǎng)取得了很大進(jìn)步,但還有很多制度及法律法規(guī)等需要完善,我國股市規(guī)模雖然達(dá)到了國際前列,但市場(chǎng)效率還很低,股市功能還沒能很好的發(fā)揮,我國股票市場(chǎng)還是個(gè)弱式有效市場(chǎng)。根據(jù)本文的研究結(jié)論,從我國股票市場(chǎng)的監(jiān)管到市場(chǎng)主體,再到市場(chǎng)本身及參與者,提出了有針對(duì)性的建議。
[Abstract]:As an important part of financial market, stock market plays an important role in economic development. Generally speaking, the stock market can influence the economy by means of wealth effect, resource allocation, risk dispersion and so on. Throughout a large number of domestic research literature, most scholars use foreign research methods, using Chinese data to simulate, the indicators are mostly selected relative indicators. On the basis of previous studies, this paper analyzes the influence of the primary stock market and the secondary market on the economic growth by using the original absolute data. The primary market is represented by the amount of financing, the secondary market is represented by the turnover and the market value, and their relationship with economic growth (expressed as nominal GDP) is examined respectively. Based on the traditional theory, this paper first uses the least square method to regression, then Granger causality test, empirical results show that there is a positive correlation between the scale of financing and economic growth in China's stock market. However, economic growth is the reason of direct financing expansion, which shows that the primary stock market is more reflected in the financing function, and the function of resource allocation can not be played effectively. There is not only a positive correlation between the transaction amount and the economic growth, but also a causal relationship, which shows that the wealth effect of the stock market in our country is great, and the prosperity of the stock market can not only promote the economic growth. And economic growth can also reverse the promotion of the stock market prosperity. There is a positive correlation between market value and economic growth in stock market, and economic growth is the reason for the expansion of stock market. Since the focus of this study is on the impact of stock market development on economic growth, the impulse response analysis of the VAR model of trading volume and economic growth is carried out, regardless of the market value and the amount of financing. The results show that when a positive impact on the market turnover is given, the impact on GDP reaches the maximum in the second year, and is negative, which is the same as the previous research conclusion, that is, the bubble in the stock market. Will lead to a recession. Looking at the stock market development since the establishment of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we find that although China's capital market has made great progress, there are still many systems, laws and regulations that need to be improved. Although the scale of our stock market has reached the international forefront, But the efficiency of the market is still very low, the function of stock market has not been given full play, and the stock market of our country is still a weak efficient market. According to the conclusion of this paper, from the supervision of Chinese stock market to the main body of the market, and then to the market itself and participants, this paper puts forward some specific suggestions.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北經(jīng)貿(mào)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.51;F124

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