市盈率和凈資產(chǎn)收益率的投資決策有效性研究
本文選題:投資價(jià)值 + 費(fèi)森-奧爾森模型 ; 參考:《華北電力大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文
【摘要】:在股權(quán)分置改革完成后,中國內(nèi)地資本市場(chǎng)上的流通股與非流通股被人為的割裂開來,產(chǎn)業(yè)資本將和金融資本同場(chǎng)博弈。金融風(fēng)暴的突然襲擊導(dǎo)致全球的資本市場(chǎng)與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)都有大幅下跌,使得前期的價(jià)值投資理念不能很好的為資本市場(chǎng)服務(wù),在這樣的大背景下,對(duì)上市公司價(jià)值評(píng)估的研究有著重要的意義。 本文的研究數(shù)據(jù)主要來自北京工商大學(xué)的銳思數(shù)據(jù)庫。論文的研究內(nèi)容分為六章,第一章緒論,詳細(xì)介紹了文章研究的背景、研究問題、研究目的和研究意義。第二章闡述基本理論,首先介紹了相關(guān)的國內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀,并對(duì)價(jià)值投資模型的發(fā)展做了詳細(xì)的描述,自然地引出了費(fèi)森-奧爾森估值模型。第三章模型推導(dǎo)與研究假設(shè),從費(fèi)森—奧爾森基本模型的介紹推導(dǎo)至研究所應(yīng)用的理論公式,同時(shí)設(shè)定本文的三個(gè)研究假設(shè),并在這一章設(shè)計(jì)了檢驗(yàn)研究假設(shè)的路徑,明確了本文的研究目標(biāo)。第四章是數(shù)據(jù)整理與統(tǒng)計(jì)處理。首先介紹了本文的研究方法,,其次說明了數(shù)據(jù)樣本的來源、選樣原則、樣本量分析,并對(duì)其進(jìn)行了描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)。第五章是描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)研究結(jié)果與分析,對(duì)數(shù)據(jù)處理結(jié)果進(jìn)行充分的解釋,并進(jìn)行比較分析。第六章結(jié)論與展望,概括研究結(jié)論,并分析本研究的局限性及可進(jìn)行的后續(xù)研究,并說明了本文研究的缺陷與不足以及需要改進(jìn)的地方。最后是參考文獻(xiàn)。 文章的研究否定了假設(shè)一:“未來凈資產(chǎn)收益率高則市盈率就高”,但肯定了假設(shè)二和假設(shè)三:“當(dāng)期凈資產(chǎn)收益率高則市凈率高”以及“市盈率高則未來盈余增長率就高”。文章主要從財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)的形成機(jī)制與其內(nèi)在聯(lián)系方面進(jìn)行分析,以期能在價(jià)值投資理念和投資方法上提供新的參考。
[Abstract]:After the reform of split share structure is completed, the tradable shares and non-tradable shares in the capital market of mainland China are artificially separated, and the industrial capital and the financial capital will compete in the same field.The sudden attack of the financial turmoil has led to a sharp decline in the global capital market and the real economy, which has made the early value investment concept not very good for the capital market. Under such a background,It is of great significance to study the valuation of listed companies.The data of this paper mainly come from the database of Reese of Beijing Industrial and Commercial University.The research content is divided into six chapters. The first chapter introduces the background, problems, purpose and significance of the research in detail.The second chapter describes the basic theory, first introduces the domestic and foreign research status, and the development of the value investment model is described in detail, and naturally leads to the Fesson-Olson valuation model.The third chapter deduces the model and hypotheses, from the introduction of Fesson-Olson 's basic model to the theoretical formula applied by the research institute, and sets up the three research hypotheses in this paper, and designs the path to test the research hypotheses in this chapter.The research goal of this paper is clarified.The fourth chapter is data collation and statistical processing.This paper first introduces the research method of this paper, then explains the source of the data sample, sample selection principle, sample size analysis, and carries out descriptive statistics.The fifth chapter is descriptive statistical research results and analysis, data processing results are fully explained, and comparative analysis.In the sixth chapter, the conclusion and prospect of the research are summarized, and the limitations of this study and the possible follow-up studies are analyzed. The defects and shortcomings of this study and the areas for improvement are also explained.The last is a reference.The research in this paper negates hypothesis one: "if the future net asset return rate is high, the price / earnings ratio is high", but affirms the hypothesis two and three: "the current net asset return rate is high, the price-to-book ratio is high" and "the future earnings growth rate is high if the P / E ratio is high".This paper mainly analyzes the forming mechanism of financial index and its internal relation, in order to provide new reference on the idea of value investment and investment method.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2013
【分類號(hào)】:F275;F832.51
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