發(fā)布時(shí)間：2018-04-02 11:35

  本文選題：家庭生命周期　切入點(diǎn)：居民財(cái)富　出處：《浙江工商大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來(lái),我國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)和房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大、運(yùn)行機(jī)制不斷完善,促進(jìn)了我國(guó)居民所持有的金融資產(chǎn)和住房資產(chǎn)價(jià)值持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),居民財(cái)富的增加對(duì)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)水平的提高和國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)的良好運(yùn)行起著關(guān)鍵性的作用。基于這樣的背景下,深入研究我國(guó)居民資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)能為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的制定提供依據(jù)。 本文主要對(duì)我國(guó)居民的金融資產(chǎn)和住房資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)及其特征進(jìn)行了描述和分析。首先闡述了居民資產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)的相關(guān)概念,從消費(fèi)函數(shù)的角度來(lái)解釋財(cái)富效應(yīng)。消費(fèi)函數(shù)主要研究收入和消費(fèi)的關(guān)系,包括凱恩斯消費(fèi)函數(shù)、杜森貝利的相對(duì)收入理論、莫利迪安尼的生命周期假說(shuō)、弗里德曼持久收入理論和霍爾的隨機(jī)游走模型等理論；同時(shí)詳細(xì)的說(shuō)明了金融資產(chǎn)和住房資產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)的傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制,論述了財(cái)富效應(yīng)的波動(dòng)性和非對(duì)稱性；其次引入莫利迪安尼和弗里德曼的生命周期-持久收入假說(shuō)模型和Benjamin模型；最后基于該模型對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民的儲(chǔ)蓄資產(chǎn)、股票資產(chǎn)和住房資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,運(yùn)用單位根檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)及誤差修正模型(EMC)等方法對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民這三種資產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)的大小進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn),同時(shí)運(yùn)用狀態(tài)空間模型和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)價(jià)值模型(VAR)等方法分別對(duì)這三種資產(chǎn)的波動(dòng)性和非對(duì)稱性進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。 本文的研究結(jié)論是儲(chǔ)蓄資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)最大,約為0.25,住房資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)約為0.06,股票資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)最小,為0.01。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),三種資產(chǎn)都呈現(xiàn)出一定程度的波動(dòng)性。股票資產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)的波動(dòng)性最大,儲(chǔ)蓄資產(chǎn)次之,住房資產(chǎn)財(cái)富效應(yīng)的波動(dòng)性最小。三類資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)表現(xiàn)出明顯的震蕩特征,但非對(duì)稱性并不顯著。本文以實(shí)證研究的結(jié)果為基礎(chǔ),對(duì)我國(guó)城鎮(zhèn)居民資產(chǎn)的財(cái)富效應(yīng)及其特征進(jìn)行總結(jié),提出促進(jìn)我國(guó)居民消費(fèi)和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的政策建議。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of China's financial market and real estate market has been continuously expanded, and the operating mechanism has been continuously improved, which has promoted the continued growth of the value of financial and housing assets held by Chinese residents. The increase of residents' wealth plays a key role in improving the consumption level of our country's residents and the good operation of the national economy. Further study on the wealth effect of Chinese residents' assets can provide basis for the formulation of macroeconomic policy. This paper mainly describes and analyzes the wealth effect and its characteristics of Chinese residents' financial assets and housing assets. The consumption function mainly studies the relationship between income and consumption, including Keynesian consumption function, Ducson Bailey's relative income theory, Moritiani's life cycle hypothesis, Friedman's theory of persistent income and Hall's random walk model, the transmission mechanism of wealth effect of financial assets and housing assets, and the volatility and asymmetry of wealth effect are discussed in detail. Secondly, the life cycle hypothesis model and Benjamin model of Morliani and Friedman are introduced, and the wealth effects of savings assets, stock assets and housing assets of urban residents in China are analyzed empirically based on this model. Using the methods of unit root test, cointegration test, Granger causality test and error correction model (EMC), this paper tests the wealth effects of these three kinds of assets of urban residents in China. At the same time, the state space model and the risk value model are used to analyze the volatility and asymmetry of these three kinds of assets. The conclusion of this paper is that the wealth effect of savings assets is the largest (about 0.25), the wealth effect of housing assets is about 0.06, and the wealth effect of stock assets is the least (0.01). All three kinds of assets show certain degree of volatility. The volatility of wealth effect of stock assets is the largest, that of savings assets is the second, and that of housing assets is the least. The wealth effects of three kinds of assets show obvious characteristics of volatility. However, asymmetry is not significant. Based on the results of empirical research, this paper summarizes the wealth effect and its characteristics of urban residents' assets in China, and puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the growth of residents' consumption and real economy in China.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江工商大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F299.23;F832.51

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本文編號(hào)：1700246