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  本文選題：價格偏差　切入點：異質(zhì)信念　出處：《湖南大學》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：現(xiàn)代行為金融學認為，由于市場存在多種有限理性且持有互異先驗信念的投資者，從而形成市場價格的偏差。本文討論了在異質(zhì)信念理論下，市場價格與價格偏差的方程形式。在此基礎上，本文引入適應度函數(shù)來衡量任一種信念的收益能力，引入選擇強度來衡量投資者在不同信念之間轉換的速度，通過這兩個變量的引入，建立了投資者占比與價格偏差的聯(lián)動方程。該方程表明，一種信念的適應度函數(shù)越高，則其對應的投資者市場占比也就越大；如果這種信念是基準價值信念，則持有該信念的投資者有助于穩(wěn)定市場，價格偏差將得到修復；如果這種信念是趨勢追逐類信念，則持有該信念的投資者會擴大市場的不穩(wěn)定與波動，價格偏差會被放大。數(shù)值模擬的結果顯示，在由多種信念組合而成的市場中，價格偏差的運動軌跡較為復雜，基準價值投資者占比、趨勢投資者占比、投資者的信念強度、市場選擇強度都會影響價格偏差的修復路徑和修復速度，甚至在某些參數(shù)取值下，價格偏差無法得到修復。最后，本文以基準價值信念和趨勢追逐信念組合作為中國股票市場投資者所使用的代表性信念組合，利用遺傳算法，，考察了異質(zhì)信念定價理論對上證A股指數(shù)、深圳A股指數(shù)、深圳成分指數(shù)與深圳中小板指數(shù)等在2002-2011年內(nèi)市場波動與市場偏差的解釋力.結果顯示：對于四個指數(shù)，異質(zhì)信念模型對數(shù)據(jù)的擬合優(yōu)度顯著高于同質(zhì)信念模型；市場的波動與平均市場情緒之間存在正向聯(lián)系。深圳成分指數(shù)的趨勢投資信念強度顯著低于其他指數(shù)，這意味著與其他指數(shù)相比，深圳成分指數(shù)的波動和偏差程度是這四個樣本中最小的。此外，四個指數(shù)的風險厭惡系數(shù)均值約為3，這意味著中國股票市場的投資者呈現(xiàn)風險厭惡。總得來說，異質(zhì)信念模型刻畫了投資者占比與市場價格偏差的聯(lián)動過程，對中國股票市場的波動有較好的解釋力。
[Abstract]:Modern behavioral finance holds that there are many investors with limited rationality and different transcendental beliefs in the market, which leads to the deviation of market price. In this paper, we discuss the theory of heterogeneous belief. On this basis, the fitness function is introduced to measure the earning ability of any belief, and the selection intensity is introduced to measure the speed of investors' conversion between different beliefs. Through the introduction of these two variables, the linkage equation of investor's share and price deviation is established. The equation shows that the higher the fitness function of a belief, the greater the proportion of investors' market. If this belief is a benchmark value belief, the investors who hold it will help stabilize the market and the price bias will be fixed; if it is a trend-chasing belief, The investors holding this belief will expand the instability and volatility of the market, and the price deviation will be magnified. The numerical simulation results show that in a market composed of multiple beliefs, the trajectory of the price deviation is more complex. The proportion of benchmark value investors, trend investors, the strength of investors' belief, the strength of market selection will affect the repair path and repair speed of the price deviation, even if some parameters are selected, the price deviation will not be fixed. In this paper, the benchmark value belief and trend chasing belief combination are used as representative belief combinations for Chinese stock market investors. By using genetic algorithm, we investigate the heterogeneity belief pricing theory for Shanghai A-share index and Shenzhen A-share index. The explanatory power of Shenzhen component index and Shenzhen small and medium-sized board index to explain market fluctuation and market deviation in 2002-2011. The results show that the heterogeneity belief model has significantly higher goodness of fit than homogeneous belief model for the four indices. There is a positive correlation between market volatility and average market sentiment. The Shenzhen component index has significantly lower trend investment beliefs than other indices, which means that compared with other indices, The volatility and deviation of the Shenzhen component index is the smallest of the four samples. In addition, the average risk aversion coefficient of the four indices is about 3, which means that investors in the Chinese stock market have a risk aversion. The heterogeneous belief model depicts the linkage process between investor share and market price deviation, which can explain the fluctuation of Chinese stock market.
【學位授予單位】：湖南大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F832.51;F224

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