本文選題：Logistic邏輯回歸分析模型　切入點：徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型　出處：《北方工業(yè)大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年來大量公司蜂擁上市,但是成功上市并不意味著企業(yè)的勝利,在證券市場上,很多上市公司由于經(jīng)營不善,市場環(huán)境無法預(yù)測等原因而帶上了ST的帽子,不但給投資方造成巨大的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,還對證券市場的穩(wěn)定發(fā)展埋下不穩(wěn)定的因素,而如何預(yù)測上市公司的財務(wù)危機(jī)成了關(guān)聯(lián)方急于解決的問題,本文意在建立一種有效的企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型來解決這一問題。而在建立企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型時,如何選擇合適的指標(biāo)建立模型一直是解決這一問題的前提,有效的財務(wù)指標(biāo)通常來源于上市公司的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表、利潤表和現(xiàn)金流量表。每年大量會計報表丑聞的曝光,更多公司對資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表數(shù)據(jù)中和利潤表中透漏的信息產(chǎn)生了嚴(yán)重的懷疑,更能反映企業(yè)真實財務(wù)運行狀況的現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)越來越受到學(xué)者們的關(guān)注。本文首先從理論上驗證了現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)在構(gòu)建財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型時的優(yōu)越性和適用性,并利用線性方法即Logistic回歸模型和非線性方法神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(徑向基函數(shù)神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)法)模型來構(gòu)建基于現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)的企業(yè)財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,并闡述了所構(gòu)造模型給上市公司帶來的價值和效用,意在在繁冗的數(shù)據(jù)信息環(huán)境里,提取出有效的信息,在瞬息萬變的市場環(huán)境中為企業(yè)提供及時的決策。 本文共選取200多家運行良好的上市公司的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)和被特別處理(文中用ST代表)公司的財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù),樣本數(shù)據(jù)來自于多個行業(yè),根據(jù)有關(guān)文獻(xiàn)選取并構(gòu)建了現(xiàn)金流量指標(biāo)構(gòu)建財務(wù)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,并運用因子分析方法剔除指標(biāo)間的共線性影響,分別采用Logistic邏輯回歸分析對表現(xiàn)良好的上市公司與出現(xiàn)財務(wù)危機(jī)的公司進(jìn)行了分類判斷,并構(gòu)建了財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,最終對檢驗的結(jié)果進(jìn)行了有效的驗證；又采用徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型建立財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型,也進(jìn)行了檢驗結(jié)果的驗證,并對兩個模型進(jìn)行了比較。根據(jù)Logistic邏輯回歸分析與神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的檢驗結(jié)果進(jìn)行了應(yīng)用上的評價,最后具體闡釋了企業(yè)構(gòu)建財務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警模型的程序和原則。
[Abstract]:In recent years, a large number of companies have flocked to the stock market, but the successful listing does not mean the success of the enterprise. In the stock market, many listed companies wear the name St because of poor management and unpredictable market environment. Not only does it cause huge economic losses to investors, but it also buries unstable factors in the stable development of the securities market. How to predict the financial crisis of listed companies has become a problem that related parties are eager to solve. The purpose of this paper is to establish an effective financial crisis warning model to solve this problem. Effective financial indicators usually come from listed companies' balance sheets, profit statements and cash flow statements. More companies are seriously sceptical of the information leaked in the balance sheet data and in the profit statement. More and more scholars pay more and more attention to the cash flow index which can reflect the real financial operation of the enterprise. Firstly, this paper theoretically verifies the superiority and applicability of the cash flow index in the construction of financial crisis warning model. Using linear method (Logistic regression model) and nonlinear neural network (radial basis function neural network) model to construct the enterprise financial crisis warning model based on cash flow index. The paper also expounds the value and utility of the model to the listed companies, which is intended to extract effective information in the redundant data and information environment, and to provide timely decision-making for the enterprises in the rapidly changing market environment. In this paper, we select the financial data of more than 200 well-run listed companies and the financial data of specially processed companies. The sample data come from many industries. According to the relevant literature, this paper selects and constructs the cash flow index to construct the financial early warning index system, and uses factor analysis method to eliminate the co-linear influence between the indexes. The Logistic logical regression analysis is used to classify the listed companies and the companies with financial crisis, and the early warning model of financial crisis is constructed. Finally, the results of the test are validated effectively. The radial basis function neural network model is also used to establish the financial crisis warning model, and the test results are verified. According to the results of Logistic logistic regression analysis and the test results of neural network model, the paper evaluates the application of the two models, and finally explains the procedure and principle of constructing the financial crisis warning model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：北方工業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F275;F832.51;F224

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