本文選題：社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)　切入點(diǎn)：年齡結(jié)構(gòu)　出處：《暨南大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：家庭金融資產(chǎn)配置及其與社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的關(guān)系一直是學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)心的重要話題。銀行儲(chǔ)蓄、股票、基金和房產(chǎn)等作為家庭資產(chǎn)中最重要的組成部分,它們受非正規(guī)制度、人口老齡化的影響和沖擊也備受矚目。然而,限于數(shù)據(jù)等方面的約束,國(guó)內(nèi)相關(guān)研究還多局限于理論層面,部分基于宏觀數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)又面臨“可加性”問(wèn)題的困擾,這一領(lǐng)域的研究亟待推進(jìn)�；谠攲�(shí)的微觀家庭調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù),本文在充分控制人力資本、財(cái)富效應(yīng)以及其他家庭人口學(xué)特征等一系列因素影響的前提下,細(xì)致考察了社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)家庭金融資產(chǎn)配置的影響,主要得出以下研究結(jié)論:本文沿襲Cao等人(2005)所構(gòu)建的均衡股票投資理論框架,通過(guò)內(nèi)生化居民不確定性偏好,將家庭的社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)變量引入居民股票投資最優(yōu)模型,從理論上研究家庭社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)居民股市參與的影響機(jī)制。研究結(jié)果表明,不論對(duì)于不確定性厭惡型家庭還是不確定性中性或喜好型家庭,隨著社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)程度的提高,其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭惡程度(或不確定性偏好)將不同程度降低(或提高),居民將表現(xiàn)出更強(qiáng)的市場(chǎng)參與傾向,并且其股市參與也更為深入�；凇爸袊�(guó)家庭金融調(diào)查(CHFS)”25省專項(xiàng)入戶調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)也進(jìn)一步證實(shí),擁有更多社會(huì)關(guān)系網(wǎng)絡(luò)的家庭,股市參與概率更大,而且一旦進(jìn)入股票資本市場(chǎng),其持有的股票資產(chǎn)在其金融資產(chǎn)中的占比會(huì)更高。本文也首次在統(tǒng)一的框架下從社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)角度系統(tǒng)研究了我國(guó)居民家庭的民間放貸行為。實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn),在中國(guó)鄉(xiāng)土社會(huì),社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)推動(dòng)了家庭的民間放貸參與活動(dòng)�？紤]到回歸結(jié)果可能受遺漏變量和反向因果等因素的內(nèi)生性干擾,利用“是否為當(dāng)?shù)卮笮铡弊鳛榧彝ド鐣?huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的工具變量,IV Probit模型和IV Tobit模型回歸結(jié)果顯示,社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)家庭民間放貸投資的參與概率、參與金額以及參與程度仍然具有顯著的正向影響,結(jié)論是穩(wěn)健的。資產(chǎn)配置效率方面,本文考察了家庭層面的社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)家庭資產(chǎn)配置效率的貢獻(xiàn),更為重要的是,本文還考察了社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的這種貢獻(xiàn)在資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)迥異的城鄉(xiāng)之間以及市場(chǎng)化水平非均勻分布的地區(qū)之間有何差異。研究發(fā)現(xiàn),基于親友關(guān)系的社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò),顯著提高了家庭資產(chǎn)配置的效率,采用工具變量的估計(jì)結(jié)果也進(jìn)一步證實(shí),擁有更多社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的家庭,投資組合更為有效。同時(shí),較之農(nóng)村家庭,城鎮(zhèn)家庭投資更為有效,但資產(chǎn)配置效率在中西部家庭與東部家庭間并不存在顯著差異;家庭層面的社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在中西部地區(qū)和農(nóng)村,對(duì)家庭投資組合有效性的促進(jìn)效應(yīng)明顯高于東部地區(qū)和城市。關(guān)于年齡及年齡結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)家庭資產(chǎn)選擇行為的影響,本文研究發(fā)現(xiàn),較之中青年家庭,戶主年齡在60歲以上的家庭對(duì)房產(chǎn)、銀行儲(chǔ)蓄的配置比重更大,而年齡對(duì)家庭股票、基金等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)投資的影響負(fù)向顯著;家庭老齡人口比的提高,會(huì)促進(jìn)家庭銀行儲(chǔ)蓄和房產(chǎn)的持有比重,同時(shí),會(huì)抑制家庭股票、基金等金融市場(chǎng)的參與程度。分區(qū)域來(lái)看,家庭年齡結(jié)構(gòu)在中西部地區(qū),對(duì)城鎮(zhèn)居民家庭股票、基金投資行為的抑制效應(yīng)要高于東部地區(qū),對(duì)家庭房產(chǎn)投資的邊際影響要低于東部地區(qū),而在銀行儲(chǔ)蓄方面,年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的影響在區(qū)域間不存在顯著差異。同時(shí),年齡及年齡結(jié)構(gòu)可以通過(guò)降低家庭風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好和提高預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄進(jìn)而影響家庭金融投資決策。本文的理論研究與實(shí)證發(fā)現(xiàn)為中國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展架設(shè)了一個(gè)新的政策視角:即社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)與人口結(jié)構(gòu)視角。家庭是經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)的基本單元,資本市場(chǎng)的健康發(fā)展需要微觀居民的積極參與,然而居民投資決策的形成不是孤立的個(gè)體異質(zhì)性的結(jié)果,容易受到其所處制度環(huán)境的影響。在當(dāng)前市場(chǎng)機(jī)制還不健全的社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)軌條件下,如何鼓勵(lì)居民家庭之間的互動(dòng)往來(lái)并有效提升其社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、如何實(shí)現(xiàn)金融創(chuàng)新與社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的匹配、如何在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)引導(dǎo)有利于提高居民投資效率的社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)規(guī)范的形成,這些都是更加系統(tǒng)的政府政策需要深入考慮的問(wèn)題。同時(shí),進(jìn)一步完善我國(guó)社會(huì)養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)機(jī)制,這可以部分地(雖然不能全部)減輕老齡居民預(yù)期支出的不確定性對(duì)其資本市場(chǎng)參與的抑制效應(yīng),幫助老齡居民無(wú)后顧之憂地利用各種金融工具來(lái)構(gòu)造“近理性”的投資組合,減少福利損失。
[Abstract]:Family financial asset allocation and the social network, the relationship of the age structure is always an important topic in academic circles. The bank savings, stocks, funds and real estate as the most important part of family assets, they are affected by the informal system, the impact of an aging population and the impact of too much attention. However, the limited data etc. the constraints of domestic research is limited to the theoretical level and empirical test based on macro data is facing "additive" problems, the research in this field should be promoted. The micro household survey data based on detailed based on the full control of the human capital, the premise of a series of factors and other family wealth effect the demographic characteristics, investigates the social network effect of age structure on household financial assets allocation, the main conclusions are as following: This article follows Cao et al (2 005) the theoretical framework constructed by the equilibrium of stock investment, through endogenous residents of uncertainty, the social network variables into family residents stock investment optimal model, from the theoretical study of family social network on the influence mechanism of residents participate in the stock market. The results show that, regardless of the uncertainty averse family or uncertain neutral or preferences the family, along with the social network to raise the level of the degree of risk aversion (or uncertainty) will decrease (or increase), residents will exhibit stronger market participation, and participate in the stock market more deeply. China family financial investigation "(CHFS)" based on the empirical test of the 25 Province special home the survey data also confirmed that the network has more social relations, family, participate in the stock market a greater probability, and once the capital into the stock market, the stock holdings The assets in its financial assets in accounting will be higher. This is also the first time in a unified framework system from the angle of social network of private lending behavior of Chinese households. The empirical study indicates that the China in rural society, social network to promote the family of folk lending participation activities. Considering the regression results may be affected by. A disturbance of omitted variables and reverse causal factors such as the use of the local surname as "family social network variables, IV Probit model and IV Tobit model regression results show that the probability of participation in social network of family folk lending investment, in the amount and degree of participation still has a significant positive effect, the conclusion is robust. The efficiency of asset allocation, examines the contribution of the household level of social network and family asset allocation efficiency in this paper, more importantly, this paper also examines the social network This contribution between different asset structure and market level between urban and rural areas of the non uniform distribution of the difference. The study found that family relationship based social network, significantly improves the efficiency of the family asset allocation, using instrumental variables estimates results further confirmed that the family has more social network, investment portfolio more effective. At the same time, compared with rural households, urban households invest more effectively, but the efficiency of asset allocation in the Midwest and Eastern family family does not exist significant differences; the family level of social network in the western region and rural families, to promote the effectiveness of the portfolio effect was significantly higher than that of the Eastern region and the city of age. Age structure and impact on family assets selection behavior, this study found that, compared with the young family, headed over the age of 60 the family of real estate, reservoir bank Storage allocation proportion is larger, and the age of the household stock, fund and other risky assets investment significantly negative; family aging population is improved, will promote the family holdings, bank savings and real estate at the same time, the family will inhibit participation in stocks, funds and other financial markets. Subregionally, the age structure of family in the Midwest, the urban households stock, the investment fund of the inhibitory effect is higher than that of the eastern region, the marginal impact of investment on family property is lower than the eastern region, while in the bank, the impact of age structure does not exist significant differences among regions. At the same time, age and age structure can reduce the risk appetite and family to improve the precautionary savings and the influence of family financial investment decision. The theoretical research and empirical findings in this thesis set up a new policy perspective for the development of the capital market Chinese: The social network and population structure perspective. The family is the basic unit of national economy, the healthy development of the capital market needs the microscopic residents to actively participate in the formation of investment decisions of the residents but not isolated individual heterogeneity, easily affected by the institutional environment. In the social transition condition of the current market mechanism is not perfect next, how to encourage interaction between residents between families and promote the social network, how to realize the matching of financial innovation and social network, how to improve the efficiency of investment is conducive to the formation of residents social network standard guide in the long term, these are more systematic government policy requires in-depth consideration. At the same time, to further improve the China's social endowment insurance mechanism, which can partially alleviate the aging (although not all) expected expenditure uncertainty on the capital market participation The inhibition effect helps the elderly residents to use various financial instruments to construct "near rational" portfolios to reduce welfare losses.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：暨南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;C912.3
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本文編號(hào)：1583378