本文關(guān)鍵詞： 分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè) 投資評(píng)級(jí) 市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)　出處：《復(fù)旦大學(xué)》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：作為專業(yè)人員,證券分析師具備較高的信息解讀與預(yù)測(cè)能力,能較全面地分析信息,持續(xù)地評(píng)價(jià)、估量和預(yù)測(cè)這些信息對(duì)市場(chǎng)價(jià)格的影響,并向客戶提供盈利預(yù)測(cè)和投資建議。我國(guó)證券分析師起步較晚,但隨著我國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展,機(jī)構(gòu)投資者隊(duì)伍的龐大,證券分析師的市場(chǎng)需求也逐步擴(kuò)大。同時(shí),“新財(cái)富最佳分析師”等各種明星分析師評(píng)選比賽使得證券分析師曝光率不斷增加,其預(yù)測(cè)行為的市場(chǎng)認(rèn)可度也得到顯著提高。 作為國(guó)內(nèi)業(yè)界公認(rèn)的最具權(quán)威性的證券分析師排名,“新財(cái)富最佳分析師”自2003年至今已經(jīng)成功舉辦了九屆,影響力日益擴(kuò)大。上榜“新財(cái)富”不僅能為證券分析師帶來(lái)巨大的榮耀,使其成為業(yè)界的明星,更能為其帶來(lái)薪酬的大幅上漲和職位的晉升。本文以2005-2010年中國(guó)證券分析師的盈余預(yù)測(cè)以及投資評(píng)級(jí)數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,對(duì)入選明星分析師的影響因素以及明星分析師對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響力進(jìn)行了深入研究。 本文發(fā)現(xiàn)明星分析師的盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力并沒(méi)有明顯優(yōu)于非明星分析師,盈余預(yù)測(cè)準(zhǔn)確性對(duì)分析師入選明星的可能性有正向影響,但并不顯著�？梢�,盈余預(yù)測(cè)能力并不是決定我國(guó)證券分析師是否能脫穎而出上榜“新財(cái)富最佳分析師”的主要原因。本文還發(fā)現(xiàn)投資評(píng)級(jí)的樂(lè)觀性、發(fā)布的報(bào)告數(shù)目、跟蹤股票的數(shù)目以及從業(yè)年數(shù)均對(duì)入選明星分析師的概率有顯著影響,投資評(píng)級(jí)越樂(lè)觀、發(fā)布報(bào)告越多、跟蹤股票數(shù)目越少,從業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)越豐富,入選明星分析師的可能性越大。分析師的成功也得益于所在券商提供的資源和環(huán)境,在大券商工作的分析師更有可能成為明星。此外,明星分析師的當(dāng)選還具有顯著持續(xù)性,相比非明星分析師,明星分析師繼續(xù)入選的概率更大。 本文還對(duì)明星分析師投資評(píng)級(jí)的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)進(jìn)行了研究分析。本文發(fā)現(xiàn)明星分析師投資評(píng)級(jí)對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響是非對(duì)稱的。對(duì)于“買入”及“增持”投資評(píng)級(jí),市場(chǎng)認(rèn)可明星效應(yīng)并且積極響應(yīng),明星分析師對(duì)股價(jià)的影響力明顯大于非明星分析師。但是對(duì)于“非正面”的投資評(píng)級(jí),明星效應(yīng)似乎并不存在。明星分析師評(píng)級(jí)報(bào)告公布日后的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)并沒(méi)有超過(guò),甚至有些低于非明星分析師的評(píng)級(jí)報(bào)告。也就是說(shuō),投資者認(rèn)可明星分析師具有出眾的薦股能力,但并不是同程度的認(rèn)可明星分析師的“看空”能力。
[Abstract]:As professionals, securities analysts have a high ability to interpret and predict information. They can analyze information comprehensively, continuously evaluate, estimate and predict the impact of such information on market prices. China's securities analysts started late, but with the development of China's capital market, the ranks of institutional investors are huge. Market demand for securities analysts is also growing. At the same time, a variety of star analysts, such as the New Fortune analysts, have increased their exposure and market acceptance of their forecast behavior. As the most authoritative ranking of securities analysts in the domestic industry, "New Fortune Best analyst" has successfully held nine sessions since 2003. New Fortune not only brings great glory to securities analysts, but also makes it a star in the industry. This paper uses earnings forecasts and investment rating data from Chinese securities analysts for the period 2005-2010 as a sample. The influence factors of star analysts and the influence of star analysts on the market are studied in depth. This paper finds that the earnings forecasting ability of star analysts is not significantly better than that of non-star analysts, and the accuracy of earnings forecasting has a positive effect on the likelihood that analysts will be selected as stars, but it is not significant. The ability to forecast earnings is not the main reason why China's securities analysts can stand out on the list of "New Wealth Best analysts." the paper also finds the optimism of investment rating and the number of reports released. The number of stocks tracked and the number of years of employment had a significant impact on the probability of being selected as a star analyst. The more optimistic the investment rating, the more reports were released, the less the number of stocks tracked, the more experienced they had. The more likely you are to be a star analyst, the more likely you are to become a star, thanks to the resources and environment that your brokerage provides. Compared with non-star analysts, star analysts continue to be more likely to be selected. The paper also analyzes the market reaction of star analyst's investment rating, and finds out that the influence of star analyst's investment rating on the market is asymmetrical. The market recognizes the star effect and responds positively. Star analysts have significantly more influence on stock prices than non-star analysts. But for "non-positive" investment ratings, The star effect doesn't seem to exist. The market reaction to the star analyst rating report hasn't exceeded, or even been, lower than that of the non-star analyst rating report. Investors recognize that star analysts have outstanding ability to recommend stocks, but not the same degree of recognition of star analysts'"short" ability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：復(fù)旦大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 王振山;姚秋;;分析師關(guān)注度與股票收益率——基于中國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究;2008年04期

2 公言磊;;公司因素對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)特性影響的實(shí)證研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究;2010年03期

3 石桂峰;蘇力勇;齊偉山;;財(cái)務(wù)分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)精確度決定因素的實(shí)證分析[J];財(cái)經(jīng)研究;2007年05期

4 儲(chǔ)一昀;倉(cāng)勇濤;;財(cái)務(wù)分析師預(yù)測(cè)的價(jià)格可信嗎?——來(lái)自中國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)[J];管理世界;2008年03期

5 馮旭南;李心愉;;中國(guó)證券分析師能反映公司特質(zhì)信息嗎?——基于股價(jià)波動(dòng)同步性和分析師跟進(jìn)的證據(jù)[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué);2011年04期

6 郭杰;洪潔瑛;;中國(guó)證券分析師的盈余預(yù)測(cè)行為有效性研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2009年11期

7 潘越;戴亦一;劉思超;;我國(guó)承銷商利用分析師報(bào)告托市了嗎?[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)研究;2011年03期

8 樊錚;宋樂(lè);;分析師特征 券商規(guī)模與盈利預(yù)測(cè)[J];中國(guó)注冊(cè)會(huì)計(jì)師;2010年07期

9 胡奕明 ,林文雄 ,王瑋璐;證券分析師的信息來(lái)源、關(guān)注域與分析工具[J];金融研究;2003年12期

10 胡奕明,林文雄;信息關(guān)注深度、分析能力與分析質(zhì)量——對(duì)我國(guó)證券分析師的調(diào)查分析[J];金融研究;2005年02期

，

本文編號(hào)：1535226