本文關(guān)鍵詞： 政府債務(wù) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長 債務(wù)閾值 拉弗曲線　出處：《金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)》2014年07期 　論文類型：期刊論文

【摘要】：本文在對(duì)現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)資料進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)回顧的基礎(chǔ)上,從新古典理論的分析視角實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)了我國政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的可適性,以驗(yàn)證政府債務(wù)拉弗曲線的存在性為切入點(diǎn),從中央政府債務(wù)和全國政府債務(wù)兩個(gè)層次探討了我國政府債務(wù)的閾值區(qū)間。研究表明,政府債務(wù)拉弗曲線確實(shí)存在,即當(dāng)政府的負(fù)債率超過某一特定值后,政府債務(wù)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長會(huì)呈現(xiàn)負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系;中央政府負(fù)債率和全國政府負(fù)債率的閾值區(qū)間分別為22%～33%和71%～129%,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于2012年中國社科院政府債務(wù)測(cè)算結(jié)果(15%和53%);當(dāng)前全國政府負(fù)債率要低于60%的國際警戒線和本文測(cè)算的71%～129%的政府債務(wù)閾值區(qū)間。本文據(jù)此提出了我國政府債務(wù)"四維一體"的可持續(xù)管理框架。
[Abstract]:On the basis of a systematic review of the existing literature, this paper empirically tests the suitability of government debt and economic growth from the perspective of neoclassical theory, in order to verify the existence of the Lafer curve of government debt as a starting point. This paper discusses the threshold range of Chinese government debt from two levels of central government debt and national government debt. The research shows that the Lafer curve of government debt does exist, that is, when the debt ratio of the government exceeds a certain value, There is a negative correlation between government debt and economic growth. The threshold ranges of the central government debt ratio and the national government debt ratio are 22 / 33% and 71 / 129 respectively, which are much higher than that of the 2012 Chinese Academy of Social Sciences government debt calculation result of 15% and 53%; the current national government debt ratio should be below the international warning line of 60% and this article. In this paper, a sustainable management framework of "four dimensions" for Chinese government debt is put forward.
【分類號(hào)】：F812.5;F124

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本文編號(hào)：1528252