發(fā)布時間：2018-01-20 08:08

  本文關鍵詞： 套期保值 風險管理 航空公司　出處：《復旦大學》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：近年來,受大宗商品價格大幅上漲的影響,最終用戶企業(yè)業(yè)績波動很大,航空公司首當其沖。為了對沖油價風險,航空公司建立了大量套期保值頭寸,卻因2008年金融危機而遭受了慘重的損失。那么,航空公司究竟是否需要進行套期保值、如何進行套期保值成為業(yè)內(nèi)、外人士非常關注的話題。 作為航空公司航油套期保值業(yè)務的親歷者,筆者擬通過理論與實證分析相結合的方法詳細分析以上問題。本文從套期保值的起源談起,描述了當前最流行的套期保值理論,分析了各種套期保值工具的優(yōu)劣勢,并通過對油價、宏觀經(jīng)濟與航空公司盈利能力的相關性分析,燃油附加費對航空公司航油成本的影響等實例分析等得出結論：燃油附加費對航空公司因燃油價格上漲帶來的成本增加影響有限,油價、宏觀經(jīng)濟、航空公司的盈利能力也沒有必然的聯(lián)系。筆者還進一步構建了簡單的數(shù)學模型來模擬算出航空公司理論最佳航油套期保值比例。同時,基于筆者的實踐經(jīng)驗和對以往交易的總結,筆者給出了航油套期保值實用工具的選擇,并就如何建立科學的套期保值評價體系給出了自己的建議,希望能對國內(nèi)航空業(yè)從事航油套期保值有所借鑒。
[Abstract]:In recent years, due to the sharp rise in commodity prices, end-user corporate performance has fluctuated greatly, with airlines bearing the brunt. In order to hedge the oil price risk, airlines have established a large number of hedging positions. But because of the financial crisis in 2008 and suffered heavy losses, then, whether airlines need to hedge, how to hedge has become a topic of great concern outside the industry. As the carrier of aviation oil hedging business, the author intends to analyze the above problems in detail through the combination of theory and empirical analysis. This paper starts with the origin of hedging. This paper describes the most popular hedging theory, analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various hedging tools, and analyzes the correlation between oil price, macro economy and airline profitability. The effect of fuel surcharge on aviation fuel cost of airlines is analyzed and the conclusion is drawn: fuel surcharge has a limited effect on the cost increase of airlines due to the increase of fuel price, oil price, macro economy. The author also constructs a simple mathematical model to simulate and calculate the optimal aviation oil hedging ratio. Based on the author's practical experience and the summary of previous transactions, the author gives the choice of practical tools for aviation oil hedging, and gives his own suggestions on how to establish a scientific hedging evaluation system. Hope to domestic aviation industry engaged in aviation oil hedging reference.
【學位授予單位】：復旦大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F562.6;F724.5

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相關期刊論文 前4條

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本文編號：1447486