本文關(guān)鍵詞： 資本賬戶開放 外匯市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 銀行系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 資產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)　出處：《華東師范大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融一體化趨勢(shì)推進(jìn)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)迅速發(fā)展和各國(guó)金融開放,但同時(shí)也加劇了各國(guó)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)甚至金融危機(jī)發(fā)生概率。1997年?yáng)|南亞金融危機(jī)和2008年全球金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生,使得政府一直對(duì)資本賬戶開放采取較為謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度,中國(guó)的資本賬戶開放進(jìn)程也一再受到危機(jī)的影響而放緩。隨著中國(guó)國(guó)際化程度的提高及人民幣國(guó)際化進(jìn)程的加速,開放人民幣資本賬戶成為一種必然趨勢(shì),但如何控制好國(guó)內(nèi)金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn),有效地防范金融危機(jī)的發(fā)生,安全實(shí)現(xiàn)資本賬戶開放帶來(lái)的利益成為中國(guó)學(xué)術(shù)界和決策層必須要考慮的問題。為此,本文深入研究資本賬戶開放與金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系,選取外匯市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、銀行系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和資產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)三類金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn),在理論和實(shí)證上驗(yàn)證了中國(guó)資本賬戶開放與這三類金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系。 本文的主要內(nèi)容是：第一章主要闡述選題背景、意義和研究?jī)?nèi)容、方法等；第二章一方面介紹本文基本概念,另一方對(duì)資本賬戶開放與金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)關(guān)系的相關(guān)文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行述評(píng)；第三章描述中國(guó)資本賬戶開放和三類金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)現(xiàn)狀,并分析兩者互動(dòng)關(guān)系機(jī)制；第四章對(duì)中國(guó)資本賬戶開放與三類金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的互動(dòng)關(guān)系做實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證結(jié)論是：資本賬戶開放水平越高,越容易加劇國(guó)內(nèi)外匯市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、銀行系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與資產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；而外匯市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、銀行系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與資產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的加劇反過來(lái)又會(huì)延緩資本賬戶開放進(jìn)程。 本文的主要貢獻(xiàn)在于,將宏觀金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的范圍限定,只選取三類主要的金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)即外匯市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、銀行系統(tǒng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和資產(chǎn)泡沫風(fēng)險(xiǎn)作為研究對(duì)象,然后分別將其量化,同時(shí)將資本賬戶開放程度量化,將兩者之間進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。但從理論上看,本文的研究并沒有基于一個(gè)系統(tǒng)理論模型,對(duì)資本賬戶開放與三類金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)互動(dòng)關(guān)系進(jìn)行推導(dǎo),理論說服力不夠；從方法上看,對(duì)三類風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的構(gòu)建依賴借鑒國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)的方法,較少結(jié)合我國(guó)具體的實(shí)際情況對(duì)指數(shù)測(cè)算公式進(jìn)行改進(jìn)。
[Abstract]:The economic trend of financial integration, to promote the rapid development of the global economy and international financial openness, but at the same time also increased the probability of.1997 occurrence of financial risk even financial crisis in the Southeast Asian financial crisis and the 2008 global financial crisis, the government has to open the capital account to take a more cautious attitude, China capital account liberalization also has been in crisis the effect of slow. With the improvement of the degree of internationalization and China to accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB, the RMB capital account has become an inevitable trend, but how to control the financial risk of domestic, effectively prevent the occurrence of financial crisis, bring about safety of capital account liberalization become the interests of Chinese academics and policymakers must consider the problem this paper. Therefore, in-depth study of the interactive relationship between capital account liberalization and the financial risk, select foreign currencies The field of risk, the risk of bank system and the risk of a property bubble, three types of financial risk, in theory and practice to verify the relationship between capital account liberalization and Chinese of these three types of financial risk.
The main contents of this paper are: the first chapter describes the background, significance and research contents and methods; the second chapter introduces the basic concepts of this paper on the one hand, the other party related literature on capital account liberalization and financial risk relationship are reviewed; the third chapter describes the Chinese capital account opening and the three kinds of financial risk status, and analysis the mechanism of the relationship between interaction; the fourth chapter of Chinese interaction between capital account liberalization and three types of financial risk do the empirical analysis. The conclusion is: the higher the level of capital account liberalization, more easily exacerbate the domestic foreign exchange market risk, the risk of bank system and asset bubble risk; foreign exchange market risk, the risk of bank system and the risk of asset bubbles increase in turn will delay the opening of capital account.
The main contribution of this paper is the scope of macro financial risk is limited, only selected the three main types of financial risk is the risk of foreign exchange market, the banking system risk and asset bubble risk as the research object, and then to quantify the degree of capital account openness between quantitative empirical analysis. But from the view of theory in this paper, the research is not a system based on the model, to derive the capital account opening and the three kinds of financial risk interaction, theory is not convincing enough; in terms of the method, three kinds of risk index of the construction depends on the reference method of literature at home and abroad, combining the actual situation of our country is less specific to improve the index calculation formula.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號(hào)】：F832.5

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本文編號(hào)：1444530