本文關(guān)鍵詞： 居民儲蓄 股票市場 收益波動 資產(chǎn)選擇　出處：《中南大學(xué)》2013年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：摘要：我國居民儲蓄受哪些因素的影響,其影響程度到底怎樣,一直是引人關(guān)注的話題,更是研究熱點(diǎn)。近年來越來越多學(xué)者關(guān)注到股票收益波動對居民儲蓄的影響,一是股市擴(kuò)容較大,IPO不斷、創(chuàng)業(yè)板開啟；二是股市持續(xù)低迷,財富大幅縮水；三是2005年以來房地產(chǎn)市場持續(xù)升溫,居民投資房地產(chǎn)熱情高漲；四是近年CPI一直處于較高位置,居民開始感覺到通脹的壓力。 本文對影響居民儲蓄的因素和居民資產(chǎn)選擇傾向進(jìn)行了分析,對股市收益波動對總體居民儲蓄的影響效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,同時,進(jìn)一步分析了股票收益波動對城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄的影響,最后針對2006年至2007年兩年的特殊時期對股市對居民儲蓄的影響進(jìn)行了月度數(shù)據(jù)的補(bǔ)充分析。通過研究得出結(jié)論：(1)在股市大幅上漲時期,股票市場吸引了部分居民將儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)化為股票投資,使得存款增幅減小,對銀行存款起到了一定的分流作用,而在股市低迷、大幅下跌時期,部分風(fēng)險厭惡型的居民遠(yuǎn)離股市,將資金轉(zhuǎn)存銀行或者轉(zhuǎn)投房產(chǎn),居民儲蓄存款明顯增長。(2)大部分居民只有在股市長時期上漲或下跌時,也就是發(fā)生了趨勢改變時,才會改變其股票投資和儲蓄行為,或減少儲蓄轉(zhuǎn)投股市,或減少投資轉(zhuǎn)存銀行,短期的股市波動對居民儲蓄余額變動的影響很小。(3)股票收益的正向波動對居民儲蓄存款增長率有負(fù)向影響,股票收益的負(fù)向波動對居民存款增長率有正向影響。但是居民存款的變動對股票收益的敏感性遠(yuǎn)不如利率、人均可支配收入和通貨膨脹率,本文實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示居民存款增長率受相關(guān)因素影響程度按從大到小順序依次為名義利率、居民人均可支配收入增長率、通貨膨脹率、上證收盤指數(shù)變動率、人均社會保障支出增長率,儲蓄存款仍然被居民認(rèn)為是最安全的首選金融資產(chǎn)。(4)與年度數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)證分析相比,由于月度數(shù)據(jù)中股指的上升和儲蓄的減少都幅度很大,因此上證收盤指數(shù)月變動率與城鎮(zhèn)居民儲蓄存款月增長率之間的雙變量相關(guān)系數(shù)有顯著提高。圖10幅,表44個,參考文獻(xiàn)67篇。
[Abstract]:Absrtact: what are the factors affecting the residents' savings in China, and the degree of their influence has always been a topic of concern. In recent years, more and more scholars have paid attention to the impact of stock return fluctuations on residents' savings. Second, the stock market continues to be depressed and wealth shrinks substantially; Third, since 2005, the real estate market continues to heat up, residents' enthusiasm for investing in real estate is high; Fourth, CPI has been in a higher position in recent years, residents began to feel the pressure of inflation. This paper analyzes the factors that affect the residents' savings and the tendency of the residents' choice of assets, and makes an empirical analysis of the effect of stock market income fluctuations on the overall residents' savings. The influence of stock return fluctuation on urban residents' savings is further analyzed. Finally, according to the special period from 2006 to 2007, this paper makes a supplementary analysis of monthly data on the impact of stock market on residents' savings. The stock market has attracted some residents to convert savings into stock investment, so that the growth of deposits decreased, bank deposits played a role in a certain diversion, and in the stock market downturn, the period of sharp decline. Some risk-averse residents stay away from the stock market, transfer their money to banks or real estate, and their savings deposits increase significantly) most of them only rise or fall over a long period of time. That is, when the trend changes, it will change its stock investment and savings behavior, or reduce savings to the stock market, or reduce investment transfer to the bank. Short-term stock market fluctuations have a small impact on the change of household savings balance.) the positive volatility of stock returns has a negative impact on the growth rate of household savings deposits. The negative fluctuation of stock returns has a positive effect on the growth rate of resident deposit, but the sensitivity of the change of resident deposit to stock income is far less than interest rate, per capita disposable income and inflation rate. The empirical results show that the growth rate of resident deposits is influenced by related factors in the order of nominal interest rate, per capita disposable income growth rate, inflation rate, and the change rate of Shanghai Stock Exchange closing index. Per capita social security expenditure growth rate, savings deposits are still considered by residents as the safest financial asset of choice.) compared with the annual data empirical analysis. Because of the rise of the stock index and the decrease of the savings in the monthly data, the bivariate correlation coefficient between the monthly change rate of the Shanghai closing index and the monthly growth rate of urban residents' savings deposits has increased significantly. Figure 10. Table 44, 67 references.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中南大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2013
【分類號】：F126.1;F832.51;F224

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