本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)研究　出處：《南京大學(xué)》2012年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：中國(guó)證券分析師行業(yè)經(jīng)過(guò)十幾年從無(wú)序到有序的發(fā)展,在普及市場(chǎng)知識(shí)、引導(dǎo)投資理念、推動(dòng)市場(chǎng)創(chuàng)新等方面發(fā)揮了重要作用,證券投資咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)在經(jīng)營(yíng)方式、管理水平和制度建設(shè)等方面取得了很大進(jìn)步。但是,與發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家成熟市場(chǎng)相比,中國(guó)證券分析師行業(yè)總體水平仍然是比較落后的。這主要表現(xiàn)在以下兩個(gè)方面：(一)在分析手段方面,主要以技術(shù)分析手段為主,幾乎沒(méi)有運(yùn)用理論模型和統(tǒng)計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)等方法；(二)在信息獲取方面,中國(guó)證券分析師較少直接接觸上市公司,如通過(guò)公司新聞發(fā)布會(huì)、電話或走訪等方式獲取資料。他們更傾向于關(guān)注簡(jiǎn)單易取的公共信息。而在公開(kāi)信息中,政策信息又是中國(guó)證券分析師所專注的重點(diǎn)。那么為什么中國(guó)的證券分析師會(huì)對(duì)政策信息給與如此大的關(guān)注?政策信息是如何影響證券分析師的決策與行為?對(duì)政策信息的關(guān)注如何影響證券分析師的預(yù)測(cè)業(yè)績(jī)?對(duì)政策信息的關(guān)注又會(huì)對(duì)證券分析師行為產(chǎn)生怎樣的經(jīng)濟(jì)后果?本文以產(chǎn)業(yè)政策作為切入點(diǎn),對(duì)分析師的盈余預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行了理論的分析和實(shí)證的檢驗(yàn),以期回答上述問(wèn)題。 首先,本文結(jié)合中國(guó)轉(zhuǎn)型經(jīng)濟(jì)下特殊的制度背景,對(duì)中國(guó)特色產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的設(shè)立與落實(shí)進(jìn)行了系統(tǒng)的現(xiàn)實(shí)回顧,對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策在中國(guó)的必要性與矛盾性進(jìn)行了深入的理論探討。作為經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整主要手段的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策,是目前我國(guó)政府宏觀調(diào)控的重要方面。產(chǎn)業(yè)政策作為一種高度綜合的政策手段,是為實(shí)現(xiàn)某種經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)目標(biāo)而制定的有特定產(chǎn)業(yè)指向的政策總和。它作為一種間接調(diào)控方式,充分結(jié)合了計(jì)劃經(jīng)濟(jì)和市場(chǎng)調(diào)節(jié)的優(yōu)點(diǎn),幫助政府實(shí)現(xiàn)計(jì)劃調(diào)控大幅縮小情況下的有效宏觀調(diào)控。由于產(chǎn)業(yè)政策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的作用主要集中于從產(chǎn)業(yè)層次促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),因此,在經(jīng)濟(jì)起飛階段,產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的影響力就十分明顯,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的必要性也特別顯著,因而在整個(gè)政府基本經(jīng)濟(jì)政策體系中的地位也就顯得頗為重要。另外,在發(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)“起飛”初期,通常遇到基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和基礎(chǔ)工業(yè)等“瓶頸”限制,它們投資大、回收期長(zhǎng),對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展有帶動(dòng)作用,這些領(lǐng)域“外部性”明顯,靠市場(chǎng)機(jī)制難以在短期內(nèi)解決,需要產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的傾斜與支持才能對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)起飛發(fā)揮推動(dòng)作用。然而,由于產(chǎn)業(yè)政策具有內(nèi)在的矛盾性,如促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級(jí)化與緩解國(guó)內(nèi)就業(yè)壓力的矛盾、充分發(fā)揮本國(guó)比較優(yōu)勢(shì)與增強(qiáng)國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的矛盾、建立相對(duì)完整的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)體系和積極參與國(guó)際分工的矛盾、國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的傾斜性與國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)則要求的公平性之間的矛盾,使得政策制定者往往在兩難之間難以取舍,政策左右搖擺,使得產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的效應(yīng)無(wú)法得以保證。而在中國(guó)“政策市”的背景下,搖擺不定的產(chǎn)業(yè)政策對(duì)中國(guó)證券市場(chǎng)的影響不可忽視,這更促使中國(guó)的證券分析師增加了其工作模型中產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的權(quán)重。 其次,本文基于政府行為影響企業(yè)行為、企業(yè)行為影響企業(yè)價(jià)值、分析師關(guān)注企業(yè)價(jià)值的邏輯線條對(duì)分析師關(guān)注產(chǎn)業(yè)政策并根據(jù)產(chǎn)業(yè)政策調(diào)整其盈余預(yù)測(cè)的行為進(jìn)行了理論分析。政府通過(guò)宏觀政策以及政府管制等行為對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控已經(jīng)是一種普遍存在的現(xiàn)象。事實(shí)上,政府對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)生活的干預(yù)構(gòu)成了轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)期我國(guó)社會(huì)主義市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的一個(gè)重要特征。而企業(yè)作為經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的主要參與者,是政府宏觀政策、政府管制等手段發(fā)揮作用的微觀載體。政府通過(guò)導(dǎo)向性的政策手段來(lái)合理引導(dǎo)企業(yè)決策、行為等實(shí)際生產(chǎn)運(yùn)營(yíng)進(jìn)而影響企業(yè)的就業(yè)、產(chǎn)出等經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)。其中,財(cái)政政策主要通過(guò)收入、支出工具影響社會(huì)總需求和供給,從而影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)水平,并通過(guò)數(shù)量和價(jià)格兩大中間變量影響企業(yè)的融資、投資和營(yíng)運(yùn)活動(dòng),最終影響企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流；貨幣政策對(duì)微觀企業(yè)的影響主要體現(xiàn)在融資活動(dòng)方面,包括融資成本和融資規(guī)模；產(chǎn)業(yè)政策與財(cái)政政策、貨幣政策是并行的政策,均是國(guó)家宏觀調(diào)控的手段和工具。但是,產(chǎn)業(yè)政策要點(diǎn)及政策手段中必然要涉及財(cái)政政策、貨幣政策的內(nèi)容,特別是稅收手段和信貸政策。因此,產(chǎn)業(yè)政策在某種程度上被看作是稅收優(yōu)惠、財(cái)政補(bǔ)貼等政府行為在某一產(chǎn)業(yè)的具體落實(shí),從而影響企業(yè)行為；與此同時(shí),企業(yè)行為與企業(yè)價(jià)值間確實(shí)存在著錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的關(guān)系和影響機(jī)制。進(jìn)一步的,由于各類政府行為在多方面對(duì)微觀企業(yè)行為產(chǎn)生重要價(jià)值,那么包括宏觀政策、直接管制在內(nèi)的政府行為必然會(huì)由此影響企業(yè)價(jià)值。因而政府行為與公司價(jià)值之間具有邏輯上的內(nèi)在關(guān)聯(lián),而作為最為關(guān)注企業(yè)價(jià)值的人群之一的證券分析師將政策研究作為研究中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的重要內(nèi)容。 然后,本文通過(guò)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)對(duì)以上理論進(jìn)行了檢驗(yàn)。本文使用2006年至2010年五年的數(shù)據(jù)作為研究樣本,以產(chǎn)業(yè)政策作為解釋變量對(duì)分析師盈余預(yù)測(cè)進(jìn)行了一系列研究。研究結(jié)論表明,分析師在做盈余預(yù)測(cè)時(shí),對(duì)有產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的公司給與了極大的關(guān)注,說(shuō)明產(chǎn)業(yè)政策是分析師工作模型中的重要輸入內(nèi)容；但是,雖然分析師更喜歡跟蹤有產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的公司并更為頻繁的出具盈余預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告,但是他們的盈余預(yù)測(cè)偏差卻更大,具有明顯的樂(lè)觀性傾向,說(shuō)明分析師的輸出內(nèi)容并不有效。究其原因,是因?yàn)榉治鰩煘榱双@取很多的傭金收入而刺激更大的交易量,所以分析師更有動(dòng)機(jī)去跟蹤那些有政策的公司。研究結(jié)論表明,中國(guó)證券分析師偏向選擇跟蹤有產(chǎn)業(yè)政策的公司,并對(duì)該類公司出具明顯偏正的樂(lè)觀性盈余預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告,以刺激該類公司產(chǎn)生相對(duì)更大的交易量,從而獲取更多的傭金收益。這從另一個(gè)角度說(shuō)明了,中國(guó)缺乏分析師聲譽(yù)回報(bào)機(jī)制,因此導(dǎo)致我國(guó)的分析師可以在利益的驅(qū)動(dòng)下盲目的夸大其所跟蹤企業(yè)的未來(lái)盈余,而不用擔(dān)心其自身的職業(yè)生涯。因此,本文建議建立健全中國(guó)分析師行業(yè)的聲譽(yù)回報(bào)機(jī)制,為中國(guó)證券分析師行業(yè)健康規(guī)范的發(fā)展提供保證。
[Abstract]:China after the securities industry analyst from disorder to order more than ten years of development, the popularization of knowledge of the market, guide the investment philosophy, has played an important role in promoting market innovation, securities investment consulting agencies in the management way, management level and system construction has made great progress. However, compared with the mature markets in developed countries, the overall level of Chinese securities analyst industry is still relatively backward. This is mainly manifested in the following two aspects: (a) in the analysis means, mainly in technical analysis methods, almost no use of theoretical models and statistical forecasting methods; (two) in terms of access to information, Chinese securities analyst less direct contact with the listed company, such as through the company news conference to obtain information or telephone interviews. They tend to focus on public information is simple and easy to take. But in the public information policy. Information is the key China securities analyst focus. So why Chinese securities analysts will so much attention to policy information to policy information? How to influence the decision and behavior of securities analysts? How to care about the information of policy impact prediction performance of securities analyst? The information of policy attention will produce what kind of economic consequences the Securities analyst behavior? This paper industry policy as a starting point, earnings forecasts of analysts of theoretical analysis and empirical research, in order to answer the above questions.
First of all, based on the special institutional background Chinese economic transformation, the establishment and implementation of the system of review of industrial policy Chinese reality characteristics, the necessity and contradiction of industrial policy in the Chinese is discussed theoretically. The adjustment of economic structure as main means of industrial policy, is an important aspect of China's Government the present Regulation of industrial policy. As a kind of highly integrated policy measures is formulated to achieve certain economic and social objectives and the specific industrial policy. To sum it as an indirect control, fully combines the advantages of planned economy and market regulation, help the government to realize effective macro-control regulation plan significantly reduced the case. Because of the effects of industrial policies on economic development are mainly concentrated on the level of industry to promote economic growth, therefore, in the economic take-off stage, industry policy The influence is very obvious, the necessity of economic development is particularly significant, and so the whole government economic policy system in the position is very important. In addition, in developing countries "early, usually encountered in infrastructure and basic industries such as" bottleneck "restrictions, their large investment and long payback period. A leading role in the economic development of these areas, solve the" externality "obviously, rely on the market mechanism is difficult in the short term, tilt and support needed to industrial policy to play a role in promoting the economic take-off. However, due to the industrial policy has inherent contradictions such as contradiction, promote industrial structure upgrading and alleviate the domestic employment pressure give full play to their comparative advantage, and enhance the international competitive advantage of contradictions, contradictions to establish a relatively complete national economic system and actively participate in international division of labor, domestic and industrial policy The contradiction between fairness policy tilt and international economic rules, so that policy makers are often in a dilemma between the difficult trade-offs, policy swings, the effect of industrial policy cannot be guaranteed. In Chinese "policy market" in the background, effects of wavering industrial policy on the stock market is not China be ignored, this has prompted the securities analyst China increase the weight of industrial policy in the model.
Secondly, based on the government behavior and enterprise behavior, enterprise behavior influence enterprise value, enterprise value logic line analysts pay attention to analysts focused on industrial policy and industrial policy adjustment according to its earnings forecast behavior was analyzed. The macro control of the government through the macro policy and government behavior in the development of the economy is already a a common phenomenon. In fact, government intervention in economic life has become an important feature of the transition period of China's socialist market economy. And the enterprises as the main participants of economic activities, is the government's macroeconomic policies, the micro carrier of government control means to play the role of the government oriented policies. Through reasonable means to guide enterprises the actual production and operation behavior of decision-making, thereby affecting the company's employment, output and other economic indicators. Among them, the fiscal policy to pass Income, expenditure tools influence the total social demand and supply, thus affecting the macroeconomic level, and the effects of the quantity and price of the two intermediate variables of enterprise financing, investment and business activities, and ultimately affect the company's cash flow; the impact of monetary policy on micro enterprises is mainly reflected in the financing activities, including financing cost and financing scale; industrial policy and fiscal policy, monetary policy is a parallel policy, is the national macro-control means and tools. However, fiscal policy will inevitably involves the main points of the industrial policy and policy instruments, monetary policy, especially tax and credit policy. Therefore, industrial policy to some extent be regarded as tax incentives, financial subsidies and other government behavior in the implementation of a certain industry, thus affecting the behavior of enterprises; at the same time, enterprise behavior and enterprise value between the existence of a wrong The relationship between the complex and influence mechanism. Further, because all kinds of government behavior have an important value for micro enterprises in many aspects, so including macro policy, government behavior regulation, will directly affect the enterprise value. Therefore the inherent logic of the government behavior and the value of the company, as one of the most attention the value of the enterprise group securities analyst policy research as an important content of the China market.
Then, this paper empirically tests the above theory to the test. This paper use from 2006 to 2010 five years of data as the research sample, with industrial policy as explanatory variables are a series of research on analysts' earnings forecast. The conclusion of the study shows that analysts in earnings forecast, the industrial policies of the company to give more attention that shows that the industrial policy is an important input analyst working models; however, although analysts love tracking industrial policy company and more frequent earnings forecast report issued, but their earnings forecast deviation is larger, with optimistic tendency is obvious, that output is not valid. The analyst the reason because many analysts in order to obtain the commission income and stimulate the greater volume of transactions, so analysts who have more motivation to keep track of public policy Our research results show that Chinese securities analysts tend to choose the tracking industrial policies of the company, and the issue that company is obviously positive optimistic earnings forecasts, produce trading volume relatively greater to stimulate the company to get more revenue. This Commission explained from another angle, Chinese the lack of analysts'reputation return mechanism, thus resulting in our analyst can be driven by the interests of the blind exaggerating its tracking the future earnings, and do not worry about their own occupation career. Therefore, this paper proposes to establish a sound reputation in the country industry analysts return mechanism, provide a guarantee for the development of the securities industry analyst Chinese health standard.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：南京大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2012
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F224

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