本文關鍵詞：國債對經(jīng)濟增長影響的實證研究　出處：《東北財經(jīng)大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 歐債危機 國債規(guī)模 經(jīng)濟增長 面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸

【摘要】：希臘在2009年末爆發(fā)了債務危機,債務危機的多米諾骨牌效應逐漸由希臘擴散到整個歐盟區(qū),并且開始逐漸發(fā)展成為制約全球經(jīng)濟復蘇的障礙。我國從1981年開始恢復發(fā)行國債,之后國債規(guī)模急劇增長,國債在促進經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、提高國民生活水平方面發(fā)揮了極其重要的作用。尤其是1998以來,我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展受到亞洲金融危機的沖擊,同時國內(nèi)出現(xiàn)社會有效性需求不足。為了抵御危機并維持經(jīng)濟的穩(wěn)定增長,我國開始實施寬松性、擴張性的財政政策。事實證明,國債在擴大國內(nèi)有效需求、促進經(jīng)濟快速增長和提高就業(yè)率方面起到至關重要的作用。但與此同時國債的各種風險也日益凸現(xiàn),截止到2011年末,我國國債余額實際數(shù)為72044.51億元。在歐債危機背景下,研究國債與經(jīng)濟增長的關系,以及我國是否有爆發(fā)“主權債務危機”的可能性是一個值得探討的問題。 本文共分為五個部分。第一部分是引言,介紹本文的寫作背景及研究公共債務與經(jīng)濟增長之間關系的意義,并介紹國內(nèi)外學者關于國債對經(jīng)濟增長關系的研究現(xiàn)狀；第二部分概括了我國發(fā)行國債的演變歷程,同時通過4個衡量指標對我國的承債能力進行分析；第三部分,簡述李嘉圖等價定理及經(jīng)濟增長模型,并從理論上分析國債與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關系；第四部分,根據(jù)不同的數(shù)據(jù)處理方式將實證部分劃分為兩部分：不分段的數(shù)據(jù)處理方式、分段的數(shù)據(jù)處理方式。從國債規(guī)模和經(jīng)濟增長的關系、初始國債水平和經(jīng)濟增長的關系,這兩個角度研究包括中國在內(nèi)的15個國家的國債與經(jīng)濟增長之間關系,并對其進行了方法和結論上的比較；第五部分,根據(jù)前面幾章的分析,得出結論并提出了防范我國發(fā)生債務危機的幾項建議。 本文通過實證分析得到的結論有：國債在歐債危機肆虐的大環(huán)境下,國債對經(jīng)濟增長已經(jīng)不能像之前一樣,能夠為其提供強有力的支持,在歐洲諸國中,債務沉重的負擔已經(jīng)拖累了經(jīng)濟增長的步伐。無論對于發(fā)達國家還是發(fā)展中國家,從長遠來看,過高的債務水平對經(jīng)濟增長都將產(chǎn)生不利的影響。而債務使用的效率水平取決于政府管理的效率水平,良好的監(jiān)控和資金有效地規(guī)劃才能良好地運用國債這一政策工具,從而為周期性的經(jīng)濟增長服務。對于我國而言,中央政府財政狀況基本良好,但是我國地方政府存在投融資平臺數(shù)量多、總負責規(guī)模大且持續(xù)上升,應該予以警惕,防止我國債務危機的發(fā)生。 本文的創(chuàng)新點是將國債規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的影響和初始國債規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的影響進行對比。對于初始國債規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的影響的研究是將1981-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)進行分段處理：將1981-2010年的數(shù)據(jù)劃分為6段,每5年劃分為一個時間段。在每個時間段內(nèi)：1981,1986,1991,1996,2001,2006為期初年份。這樣的做的結果是將分階段的初始國債規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的研究與不分階段的國債規(guī)模對經(jīng)濟增長的研究進行對比,分別從長期和短期兩個角度更加深入的揭示了國債與經(jīng)濟增長的關系,而且分階段的系數(shù)會比不分階段的系數(shù)更大且顯著,顯示出經(jīng)濟變量長期性的結構變化。
[Abstract]:The Greek debt crisis broke out in late 2009, the Domino effect of the debt crisis gradually spread from Greece to the euro zone, and began to gradually become the constraints of global economic recovery barriers. China began to issued treasury bonds in 1981, after a sharp increase in the scale of treasury bonds, treasury bonds in the promotion of economic development, has played an extremely important role improve the people's living standard. Especially since 1998, China's economic development has been the impact of the Asian financial crisis, the domestic insufficient demand of effectiveness of society. In order to resist the crisis and maintain steady economic growth, China began to implement expansionary, expansionary fiscal policy. In fact, treasury bonds in expanding domestic demand, play a crucial role in promoting rapid economic growth and increasing employment rate. But at the same time all kinds of risk bonds are also increasingly apparent, stop to 201 At the end of 1, the actual number of the national debt in China is 7 trillion and 204 billion 451 million yuan. Under the background of the European debt crisis, it is a worthwhile question to study the relationship between treasury bonds and economic growth and whether there is a possibility of "sovereign debt crisis" in China.
This paper is divided into five parts. The first part is the introduction, introducing the relation between the background and research significance of public debt and economic growth, and introduces the domestic and foreign scholars on the research status of the relationship between economic growth and government bonds; the second part summarizes the evolution of our bonds, at the same time through the 4 indicators of analysis of China's debt carrying capacity; the third part, a brief description of Ricardo equivalence theorem and economic growth model, and analyze the relationship between debt and economic growth in theory; the fourth part, according to the different data processing methods to the empirical part is divided into two parts: data processing section, data processing section. From the relationship between national debt and economic growth, the relationship between the initial level of public debt and economic growth, debt and Economic Research on the two aspects of the 15 countries, including the China The relationship between growth and its methods and conclusions are compared. The fifth part, based on the analysis of the preceding chapters, draws the conclusion and puts forward several suggestions to guard against the debt crisis in China.
In this paper, through empirical analysis, the conclusions are: the bonds in the debt crisis raging in the environment, debt on economic growth is not the same as before, can provide strong support for the countries in Europe, the debt burden has dragged down economic growth step. For both developed and developing countries, from the long run, the high debt levels of economic growth will be adversely affected. While the use of debt to levels of efficiency depends on the efficiency of government management level, to good use of the national debt policy tools to effectively plan good monitoring and funds, so as to cyclical economic growth. For our country, central the government's fiscal position is good, but China's local government financing platform for the total number of large scale and rising, should be vigilant, to prevent my debt The occurrence of an affair crisis.
This innovation is the scale of national debt on economic growth and the scale of the initial debt on the impact of economic growth on the scale of treasury bonds for comparison. The initial impact on economic growth is the 1981-2010 data segment: 1981-2010 data is divided into 6 sections, each 5 years into a time section. In each period of time: 198119861991199620012006 for the initial year. Such as a result of the initial stages of the national debt scale research on economic growth and phased debt scale research on economic growth were compared, respectively from two angles of long and short term further reveals the relationship between public debt and economic growth the stages and coefficient than the coefficient of phase is larger and significant, showing long-term structural changes in economic variables.

【學位授予單位】：東北財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F224;F812.5;F124

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本文編號：1360228