【摘要】：突發(fā)事件已成為嚴(yán)重的社會問題,受到我國政府的高度重視。突發(fā)事件具有突發(fā)性、不確定性、群體擴散性和動態(tài)多階段性等特點。突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策相對于普通決策具有復(fù)雜性的特點,應(yīng)急決策問題已經(jīng)不能僅憑單個人或單個組織的知識和能力所能解決的,而是由不同領(lǐng)域和不同層次的專家組成決策群體來執(zhí)行決策。由于決策群體的成員來自不同部門,掌握的專業(yè)知識也不同,決策時從不同的角度提出觀點并選擇方案,所以考慮問題更加全面。但是由于群體成員異構(gòu)性、決策關(guān)系復(fù)雜性等因素,決策時不可避免的會產(chǎn)生沖突。如果不能有效的協(xié)調(diào)決策沖突,就會延長救援時間,影響決策效率,使突發(fā)事件損失增大�？梢妼ν话l(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)策略的相關(guān)研究具有重要研究意義。目前,國內(nèi)外對突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)的研究已經(jīng)取得了一定成果,這些成果主要側(cè)重于沖突模型和一致性分析的數(shù)學(xué)方法研究,以及將組織行為學(xué)的相關(guān)研究成果應(yīng)用到突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策沖突協(xié)調(diào)中,而對于應(yīng)急決策過程中所產(chǎn)生的群體沖突協(xié)調(diào)相關(guān)研究還不是很多。因此,本論文針對突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)策略做了以下研究:論文分析突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策問題特點和突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策特征,并根據(jù)應(yīng)急決策組織結(jié)構(gòu)和應(yīng)急決策過程得出應(yīng)急決策是多階段群決策過程。對群決策沖突的特征、沖突產(chǎn)生的原因、類型以及影響進行分析,闡明突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策沖突協(xié)調(diào)的必要性。論文根據(jù)突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)過程總結(jié)出突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)原理,進而建立了突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)流程和基于修正決策偏好的突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)機制。首先對突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策問題進行描述,然后構(gòu)建應(yīng)急決策沖突測度并提出一種改進的突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)算法,最后通過算例對比驗證該機制的有效性。得出該機制可降低決策的主觀性和不確定性。論文在突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策協(xié)調(diào)機制的基礎(chǔ)上根據(jù)鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策特點,設(shè)計了鐵路突發(fā)事件應(yīng)急決策救援方案協(xié)調(diào)系統(tǒng)的總體結(jié)構(gòu)及功能模塊,并對該系統(tǒng)的功能模塊進行了詳細(xì)說明。最后對系統(tǒng)主要功能界面進行了展示。
[Abstract]:Emergency has become a serious social problem, which is attached great importance by our government. Unexpected events are characterized by sudden, uncertain, group diffusion and dynamic multi-stage. Emergency decision making has the characteristics of complexity compared with ordinary decision making. The problem of emergency decision can no longer be solved by the knowledge and ability of individual or individual organization. Instead, decision-making groups are composed of experts from different fields and different levels to execute decisions. Because the members of the decision-making group come from different departments and have different professional knowledge, they put forward their views and choose the scheme from different angles when making decisions, so the consideration of the problem is more comprehensive. However, due to the heterogeneity of group members and the complexity of decision-making relationship, conflicts will inevitably occur in decision-making. If the conflict can not be coordinated effectively, the rescue time will be prolonged, and the efficiency of decision-making will be affected, and the loss of unexpected events will be increased. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the coordination strategy of emergency decision. At present, some achievements have been made in the research of emergency decision coordination at home and abroad, which mainly focus on the research of conflict model and mathematical method of consistency analysis. And the related research results of organizational behavior are applied to the conflict coordination of emergency decision-making, but there are not many researches on the coordination of group conflict in the process of emergency decision-making. Therefore, this paper has done the following research on the emergency decision-making coordination strategy: the paper analyzes the characteristics of emergency decision-making and emergency decision-making characteristics. According to the organization structure of emergency decision and the process of emergency decision, it is concluded that emergency decision is multistage group decision making process. This paper analyzes the characteristics, causes, types and effects of conflict in group decision making, and expounds the necessity of conflict coordination in emergency decision making. According to the process of emergency decision coordination, this paper summarizes the principle of emergency decision coordination, and then establishes the emergency decision coordination process and the emergency decision coordination mechanism based on modified decision preference. Firstly, the emergency decision problem is described, then the conflict measure of emergency decision is constructed, and an improved coordination algorithm for emergency decision making is proposed. Finally, the effectiveness of the mechanism is verified by an example. It is concluded that this mechanism can reduce the subjectivity and uncertainty of decision making. On the basis of emergency decision coordination mechanism, according to the characteristics of railway emergency decision, the paper designs the overall structure and function module of railway emergency decision and rescue system. The function module of the system is explained in detail. Finally, the main function interface of the system is displayed.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：D63

【共引文獻】

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前3條

1 黃智麗;基于偏好沖突的復(fù)雜大群體應(yīng)急決策方法研究[D];中南大學(xué);2012年

2 劉金鑫;重大自然災(zāi)害應(yīng)急資源調(diào)配群決策支持系統(tǒng)研究[D];中南大學(xué);2012年

3 萬奇鋒;應(yīng)急決策中的復(fù)雜大群體沖突測度及沖突協(xié)調(diào)研究[D];中南大學(xué);2012年

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本文編號：2306041