危機轉化原理和方法研究
[Abstract]:At the present stage, our country is in the key period of constructing harmonious society and building Chinese Dream altogether. The possibility of crisis in various fields of society is increased, which challenges the management ability of the government and the normal life of the public from all aspects. The former "abnormal" also gradually changed into "normal". Crises are dangerous and opportunities are brewing. The successful handling of the crisis can finally realize the transformation from danger to opportunity; conversely, the crisis will directly lead to disaster. It is found that cultivating potential opportunities for success is the essence of crisis transformation. Review of domestic and foreign studies, lack of systemic and targeted research on crisis transformation. In view of this, it is necessary to set up a new method system of crisis transformation and to build an upgraded version of crisis management in the face of the arrival of "risk society". This paper introduces the theories and methods of crisis management, opportunity discovery and complex network, explores new ideas of crisis management, and puts forward the concept of crisis transformation and corresponding methods. This paper is divided into eight parts. The main contents are as follows: chapter 1 mainly discusses the research background, the purpose and significance of the research, analyzes the current research situation at home and abroad and briefly comments on it. Chapter 2 analyzes the thought of crisis transformation from ancient to present at home and abroad, analyzes the typical cases of crisis transformation, and constructs the theoretical framework of crisis transformation. The third chapter constructs the crisis "fame and fortune" scene space, establishes the crisis decision-making situation. This paper analyzes the types and characteristics of dangerous situations, the types and characteristics of opportunity scenarios, and the relevance of crisis scenarios, including the mapping of crisis scenarios and the conceptual model of the degree of crisis transformation. Chapter 4 puts forward the relevant methods of quantifying the situation of crisis transformation. This paper analyzes the factors of crisis situation and the frame of knowledge expression of crisis scenario information, and establishes the knowledge element of crisis scenario, and on the basis of it, the method of spatio-temporal quantification of crisis scenario "fame and profit" is put forward. Chapter 5, opportunity discovery method of crisis transformation. The characteristics of opportunistic discovery, the case-based reasoning technology of opportunistic discovery, the opportunistic discovery method based on condition creation, and the establishment of crisis transformation Bayesian network are proposed to simulate the path of crisis transformation. In chapter 6, based on the Bayesian network of crisis transformation, we construct a method of mining the path of crisis transformation, and evaluate the path of crisis transformation systematically. Chapter 7, empirical analysis. In order to verify the feasibility and scientific nature of the theory and method system of crisis transformation, the crisis transformation case simulation is carried out in view of Lenovo's merger and acquisition of IBM PC. Chapter 8 summarizes and prospects the full text. The innovation of this paper lies in: (1) constructing a new system of crisis transformation theory, integrating crisis management, scenario analysis, opportunity discovery, complex network and so on, effectively integrating and perfecting the traditional crisis management theory. Induces and studies the thought and model of crisis transformation, constructs a new system of crisis transformation theory. (2) puts forward a new model of maximizing the opportunity utility of crisis transformation, with the help of condition creation method, through opportunity mining, Explore the feasible path of risk transformation, accelerate the risk reduction. (3) establish the optimal path of crisis transformation, explore the evolution and transformation law of crisis, and further develop and improve the crisis management method system.
【學位授予單位】:武漢理工大學
【學位級別】:博士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:D63
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