【摘要】：現(xiàn)階段,我國(guó)正處于構(gòu)建和諧社會(huì),共筑中國(guó)夢(mèng)的關(guān)鍵時(shí)期,在社會(huì)諸領(lǐng)域發(fā)生危機(jī)的可能性增大,從各個(gè)方面對(duì)政府的管理能力以及公眾的正常生活形成挑戰(zhàn),以往的“非常態(tài)”也逐漸轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)椤俺B(tài)”。危機(jī)會(huì)帶來危險(xiǎn),同時(shí)也醞釀著機(jī)會(huì)。對(duì)危機(jī)的成功處置可以最終實(shí)現(xiàn)危險(xiǎn)向機(jī)會(huì)的轉(zhuǎn)化;反之,危機(jī)將直接導(dǎo)致災(zāi)難的發(fā)生。發(fā)現(xiàn)、培育潛在的成功機(jī)會(huì),就是危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的精髓�；仡檱�(guó)內(nèi)外研究,缺乏針對(duì)危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的系統(tǒng)性和針對(duì)性研究。鑒于此,建立危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的新方法體系,面對(duì)“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)社會(huì)”的到來,打造危機(jī)管理升級(jí)版顯得極為必要。本文引入危機(jī)管理、機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)和復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)的理論與方法,探索危機(jī)管理的新思路,提出危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的理念以及對(duì)應(yīng)的方法。本文研究共分為8個(gè)部分,具體如下:第1章主要論述研究背景、研究目的和研究意義,分析國(guó)內(nèi)外研究現(xiàn)狀并簡(jiǎn)要評(píng)述。第2章分析了國(guó)內(nèi)外從古至今的危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化思想,針對(duì)典型的危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化案例進(jìn)行了剖析,初步構(gòu)建了危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化理論框架。第3章構(gòu)建了危機(jī)“名利”情景空間,建立了危機(jī)決策情景。剖析了危險(xiǎn)情景的類型和特點(diǎn),機(jī)會(huì)情景的類型和特點(diǎn),以及危機(jī)情景關(guān)聯(lián),包括危機(jī)情景映射、危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化度概念模型。第4章提出了危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化情景量化的相關(guān)方法。分析了危機(jī)情景因素以及危機(jī)情景信息知識(shí)表達(dá)框架,并且建立了危機(jī)情景知識(shí)元,在此基礎(chǔ)上的危機(jī)情景“名利”時(shí)空量化的方法。第5章,危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)方法。提出了機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)的特點(diǎn)、機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)案例推理技術(shù)、基于條件創(chuàng)造的機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)方法,建立危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)用以模擬仿真危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化路徑。第6章基于危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò),構(gòu)建了危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化路徑挖掘方法,對(duì)危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化路徑進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)評(píng)價(jià)。第7章,實(shí)證分析。針對(duì)聯(lián)想并購(gòu)IBM PC事件,進(jìn)行危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化案例仿真,以驗(yàn)證所提出的危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化理論和方法體系的可行性和科學(xué)性。第8章,對(duì)全文進(jìn)行總結(jié)與研究展望。本文創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)在于(1)構(gòu)建危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化理論新體系,融合危機(jī)管理、情景分析、機(jī)會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)、復(fù)雜網(wǎng)絡(luò)等理論方法,有效整合與完善傳統(tǒng)的危機(jī)管理理論,歸納研究整理危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的思想與模型,構(gòu)建危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化理論新體系。(2)提出危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的機(jī)會(huì)效用最大化新模式,在條件創(chuàng)造方法的輔助下,通過機(jī)會(huì)挖掘,探索危險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)化的可行路徑,加速危險(xiǎn)的消減。(3)建立危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的危機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)化的最優(yōu)路徑,探索危機(jī)的演化與轉(zhuǎn)化規(guī)律,進(jìn)一步發(fā)展與完善危機(jī)管理方法體系。
[Abstract]:At the present stage, our country is in the key period of constructing harmonious society and building Chinese Dream altogether. The possibility of crisis in various fields of society is increased, which challenges the management ability of the government and the normal life of the public from all aspects. The former "abnormal" also gradually changed into "normal". Crises are dangerous and opportunities are brewing. The successful handling of the crisis can finally realize the transformation from danger to opportunity; conversely, the crisis will directly lead to disaster. It is found that cultivating potential opportunities for success is the essence of crisis transformation. Review of domestic and foreign studies, lack of systemic and targeted research on crisis transformation. In view of this, it is necessary to set up a new method system of crisis transformation and to build an upgraded version of crisis management in the face of the arrival of "risk society". This paper introduces the theories and methods of crisis management, opportunity discovery and complex network, explores new ideas of crisis management, and puts forward the concept of crisis transformation and corresponding methods. This paper is divided into eight parts. The main contents are as follows: chapter 1 mainly discusses the research background, the purpose and significance of the research, analyzes the current research situation at home and abroad and briefly comments on it. Chapter 2 analyzes the thought of crisis transformation from ancient to present at home and abroad, analyzes the typical cases of crisis transformation, and constructs the theoretical framework of crisis transformation. The third chapter constructs the crisis "fame and fortune" scene space, establishes the crisis decision-making situation. This paper analyzes the types and characteristics of dangerous situations, the types and characteristics of opportunity scenarios, and the relevance of crisis scenarios, including the mapping of crisis scenarios and the conceptual model of the degree of crisis transformation. Chapter 4 puts forward the relevant methods of quantifying the situation of crisis transformation. This paper analyzes the factors of crisis situation and the frame of knowledge expression of crisis scenario information, and establishes the knowledge element of crisis scenario, and on the basis of it, the method of spatio-temporal quantification of crisis scenario "fame and profit" is put forward. Chapter 5, opportunity discovery method of crisis transformation. The characteristics of opportunistic discovery, the case-based reasoning technology of opportunistic discovery, the opportunistic discovery method based on condition creation, and the establishment of crisis transformation Bayesian network are proposed to simulate the path of crisis transformation. In chapter 6, based on the Bayesian network of crisis transformation, we construct a method of mining the path of crisis transformation, and evaluate the path of crisis transformation systematically. Chapter 7, empirical analysis. In order to verify the feasibility and scientific nature of the theory and method system of crisis transformation, the crisis transformation case simulation is carried out in view of Lenovo's merger and acquisition of IBM PC. Chapter 8 summarizes and prospects the full text. The innovation of this paper lies in: (1) constructing a new system of crisis transformation theory, integrating crisis management, scenario analysis, opportunity discovery, complex network and so on, effectively integrating and perfecting the traditional crisis management theory. Induces and studies the thought and model of crisis transformation, constructs a new system of crisis transformation theory. (2) puts forward a new model of maximizing the opportunity utility of crisis transformation, with the help of condition creation method, through opportunity mining, Explore the feasible path of risk transformation, accelerate the risk reduction. (3) establish the optimal path of crisis transformation, explore the evolution and transformation law of crisis, and further develop and improve the crisis management method system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號(hào)】：D63

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