【摘要】：應(yīng)急救援是城鎮(zhèn)事故、災(zāi)難防范屏障的最后一層,施救效果的好壞直接影響著突發(fā)事件對城鎮(zhèn)造成的人員傷亡、財產(chǎn)損失的程度。作為消防隊(duì)、醫(yī)療隊(duì)等應(yīng)急救援隊(duì)伍的空間容區(qū),合規(guī)、合理地選擇應(yīng)急設(shè)施的位置對于安全基礎(chǔ)薄弱的中小城鎮(zhèn)防范各類事故災(zāi)難、自然災(zāi)害工作開展非常重要。本文針對目前我國大部分中小城鎮(zhèn)存在的應(yīng)急設(shè)施數(shù)量有限、設(shè)施布局規(guī)劃不科學(xué)、區(qū)域風(fēng)險變大等問題,對應(yīng)急設(shè)施的選址優(yōu)化進(jìn)行了研究。應(yīng)急設(shè)施的布局優(yōu)化問題是一個思量多種因素的數(shù)學(xué)問題,目的是研究如何通過科學(xué)、合規(guī)的分布應(yīng)急設(shè)施,實(shí)現(xiàn)具備長期性、穩(wěn)定性特點(diǎn)的設(shè)施使用效力的最大化。作為應(yīng)急救援實(shí)施的依托體,應(yīng)急設(shè)施本身具有標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化、定向化的服務(wù)職能要求,應(yīng)急設(shè)施需要考量其在區(qū)域事故防范系統(tǒng)中的位置,在了解區(qū)域安全水平情況下進(jìn)行布局。首先,文章在分析了目前國內(nèi)外對應(yīng)急選址問題優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)上,通過比較各類風(fēng)險評價方法,根據(jù)ARAMIS方法風(fēng)險的數(shù)學(xué)表征,搭建了基于脆弱性理念的城鎮(zhèn)生產(chǎn)安全事故區(qū)域風(fēng)險計算模型。并以生產(chǎn)事故為防范對象,對城鎮(zhèn)脆弱性評價和生產(chǎn)安全事故風(fēng)險評價的內(nèi)容要素做出了分析,構(gòu)建了城鎮(zhèn)地域脆弱性評價指標(biāo)體系及生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營單位安全性評價指標(biāo)體系。同時,在比較經(jīng)典的最大覆蓋模型、位置集合覆蓋模型、P-中心問題、P-中值問題等設(shè)施布局模型的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)上,分析了城鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急設(shè)施選址時應(yīng)當(dāng)考慮的因素和目標(biāo),建立了把施救效果最大、覆蓋范圍最大、風(fēng)險防備程度最大、成本最低作為布局目標(biāo)的應(yīng)急設(shè)施多目標(biāo)布局優(yōu)化模型,并詳細(xì)介紹了各種優(yōu)化模型算法的原理及步驟。最后,結(jié)合所構(gòu)建的應(yīng)急設(shè)施選址優(yōu)化模型,選取山東蘭陵縣為對象進(jìn)行了該縣消防站的布局優(yōu)化問題計算,利用改進(jìn)NSGA-II算法的gamultiobj函數(shù)求解模型,根據(jù)計算所得的Pareto最優(yōu)解研究提出城鎮(zhèn)應(yīng)急設(shè)施布局優(yōu)化的選址策略,讓決策者能夠根據(jù)現(xiàn)實(shí)情況選址合理、合規(guī)、科學(xué)的應(yīng)急設(shè)施布局方案,實(shí)現(xiàn)有限資源的高效利用,保障應(yīng)急救援行動及時有效地進(jìn)行,降低突發(fā)事件導(dǎo)致的人員傷亡和環(huán)境破壞。
[Abstract]:Emergency rescue is the last layer of disaster prevention barrier in cities and towns. The effect of rescue directly affects the degree of casualties and property losses caused by unexpected events in cities and towns. As the space capacity of emergency rescue teams such as fire brigade and medical team, it is very important to choose the location of emergency facilities reasonably for the small and medium-sized towns with weak safety foundation to prevent all kinds of accidents and disasters and to carry out natural disasters. Aiming at the problems of limited number of emergency facilities, unscientific layout of facilities and increasing regional risk in most small and medium-sized cities and towns in China, this paper studies the location optimization of emergency facilities. The layout optimization of emergency facilities is a mathematical problem with many factors in mind. The purpose of this problem is to study how to maximize the utility effectiveness of facilities with long-term and stable characteristics through scientific and compliant distributed emergency facilities. As the support of emergency rescue implementation, emergency facilities have standardized and targeted service function requirements. Emergency facilities need to consider their position in the regional accident prevention system and layout under the understanding of regional safety level. Firstly, on the basis of analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the emergency location problem at home and abroad, the paper compares various risk evaluation methods, according to the mathematical representation of the risk of ARAMIS method. The regional risk calculation model of urban production safety accidents based on vulnerability theory is established. Taking the production accident as the prevention object, this paper analyzes the content elements of the urban vulnerability assessment and the production safety accident risk assessment, and constructs the evaluation index system of the urban regional vulnerability and the safety evaluation index system of the production and management units. At the same time, on the basis of comparing the advantages and disadvantages of the classical maximum coverage model, location set coverage model, P- center problem, P- median problem and other facilities layout models, this paper analyzes the factors and objectives that should be considered in the location of emergency facilities in cities and towns. The multi-objective layout optimization model of emergency facilities with the largest rescue effect, the largest coverage, the largest degree of risk preparedness and the lowest cost is established. The principle and steps of various optimization model algorithms are introduced in detail. Finally, combined with the optimized location model of emergency facilities, the layout optimization problem of fire station in Lanling County of Shandong Province is calculated, and the gamultiobj function of improved NSGA-II algorithm is used to solve the model. According to the Pareto optimal solution, the location strategy of urban emergency facility layout optimization is put forward, which enables the decision-maker to choose a reasonable, compliant and scientific emergency facility layout scheme according to the actual situation, so as to realize the efficient utilization of limited resources. To ensure that emergency rescue operations are carried out in a timely and effective manner to reduce casualties and environmental damage caused by emergencies.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(北京)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D63
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本文編號：2277413