本文選題：洪澇災(zāi)害 + 應(yīng)急物資��； 參考：《沈陽大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近年來,全球洪澇災(zāi)害頻發(fā),對災(zāi)區(qū)人民的生命安全造成了嚴(yán)重的威脅。應(yīng)急物資作為保障人們生命的重要資源,及時、合理、公平的資源優(yōu)化配置對于保障人民生命安全、提高救災(zāi)效率具有重要的實踐意義,因此得到了救災(zāi)機構(gòu)的普遍重視。本文以洪澇災(zāi)害為研究背景,綜合考慮災(zāi)區(qū)應(yīng)急救援物資配置中的諸多影響因素,建立了應(yīng)急救災(zāi)物資需求預(yù)測、物資籌措以及物資分配等方法。主要研究工作如下:(1)對應(yīng)急物資進(jìn)行了需求預(yù)測。搜集了近年來我國洪澇災(zāi)害的相關(guān)案例,選取了其中比較有代表性的特征數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本數(shù)據(jù)。選用徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)對特征數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行訓(xùn)練,利用測試樣本數(shù)據(jù)對需求預(yù)測模型進(jìn)行了驗證,并比較分析了徑向基神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)與BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)預(yù)測結(jié)果,驗證了所提出方法的有效性。建立了物資需求估算公式,通過計算可以間接預(yù)測洪澇災(zāi)害發(fā)生后短時間內(nèi)不同類應(yīng)急物資的需求量。(2)基于物資需求預(yù)測結(jié)果,建立了不同需求狀況下的應(yīng)急物資籌措方法。災(zāi)害發(fā)生時,動用應(yīng)急儲備物資和向企業(yè)征用物資等籌措方式難以滿足突發(fā)情景下災(zāi)區(qū)的應(yīng)急物資需求。本文以各個企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)水平、生產(chǎn)物資的成本以及各企業(yè)到達(dá)受災(zāi)點的時間為主要考慮因素,以時間及成本最小化為目標(biāo)建立了應(yīng)急物資籌措模型,并對模型給予了求解。(3)對傳統(tǒng)的公平—效率模型進(jìn)行了改進(jìn)�？紤]到應(yīng)急物資運輸時間、災(zāi)區(qū)受災(zāi)嚴(yán)重程度不同以及災(zāi)區(qū)對于不同物資的需求等級不同等因素,分別建立了針對配送時間的效用損失模型,針對不同地區(qū)受災(zāi)嚴(yán)重程度和對物資的需求等級的效率模型,針對物資分配合理性的公平性模型。根據(jù)配送時間、物資滿足率、分配公平性的優(yōu)先考慮順序,采用分層序列法,通過變鄰域蟻群算法實現(xiàn)了應(yīng)急物資分配的多目標(biāo)優(yōu)化的求解。針對文中所建立的模型和方法,分別通過實例分析驗證了其可行性和合理性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the flood disaster around the world has caused a serious threat to the lives of the people in the disaster area. As an important resource to protect people's lives, emergency materials have important practical significance in ensuring the safety of people's lives and improving the efficiency of disaster relief because of the timely, reasonable and fair allocation of resources. This paper takes flood disaster as the research background, synthetically considers many influence factors in the allocation of emergency relief materials in the disaster area, and sets up the methods of forecasting the demand for emergency relief materials, raising the materials and distributing the materials and so on. The main research work is as follows: 1) forecasting the demand for emergency supplies. The relevant cases of flood and waterlogging disasters in China in recent years are collected and the representative characteristic data are selected as sample data. The radial basis function neural network is used to train the characteristic data, and the test sample data is used to verify the demand forecasting model. The results of radial basis function neural network and BP neural network are compared and analyzed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The formula of material demand estimation is established, and the demand of different kinds of emergency materials in a short period of time after flood disaster can be indirectly predicted by calculation. Based on the forecasting results of material demand, the method of emergency material raising under different demand conditions is established. When the disaster occurs, it is difficult to meet the emergency material demand in the disaster area by using emergency reserve materials and requisition materials from enterprises. This paper takes the production level of each enterprise, the cost of production materials and the time of each enterprise to reach the disaster spot as the main consideration factors, taking the time and cost minimization as the goal to establish the emergency material financing model. The model is solved. (3) the traditional fair-efficiency model is improved. Considering the time of transportation of emergency materials, the different severity of disaster and the different factors of demand level for different materials in disaster areas, the utility loss models for distribution time are established respectively. According to the efficiency model of disaster severity and material demand level in different areas, and the fairness model of material distribution rationality. According to the priority order of distribution time, material satisfaction rate and distribution fairness, the multi-objective optimization solution of emergency material allocation is realized by variable neighborhood ant colony algorithm using hierarchical sequence method. The feasibility and rationality of the model and method are verified by examples.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：沈陽大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：D632.5

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