本文選題：系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)　切入點：生態(tài)環(huán)境　出處：《數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：研究目標(biāo):優(yōu)化三峽庫區(qū)移民生態(tài)減貧策略。研究方法:運用協(xié)整分析探索移民貧困的關(guān)鍵影響因素,構(gòu)建了庫區(qū)生態(tài)減貧系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并以重慶萬州為例進行了仿真模擬。研究發(fā)現(xiàn):地質(zhì)災(zāi)害與土地、降雨、環(huán)保投資,脫貧人口與耕地、飲用水、人均純收入間存在長期協(xié)整關(guān)系;環(huán)境污染和地質(zhì)災(zāi)害治理方案均可減少貧困發(fā)生率;協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展方案減貧效果最佳,萬州區(qū)有望提前實現(xiàn)減貧目標(biāo)。研究創(chuàng)新:構(gòu)建了三峽庫區(qū)生態(tài)減貧的系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論模型,揭示了地質(zhì)災(zāi)害、生態(tài)環(huán)境和移民貧困三者之間的復(fù)雜生克關(guān)系和動態(tài)反饋機制。研究價值:提出了三峽庫區(qū)兼顧生態(tài)環(huán)境保護和地質(zhì)災(zāi)害減輕的系統(tǒng)性減貧策略。
[Abstract]:Objective: to optimize the strategy of ecological poverty reduction in the three Gorges Reservoir area.Methods: using cointegration analysis to explore the key influencing factors of emigration poverty, the dynamic model of ecological poverty reduction in reservoir area was constructed, and the simulation of Wanzhou in Chongqing was carried out.The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between geological hazards and land, rainfall, environmental protection investment, poverty alleviation population and cultivated land, drinking water, per capita net income, environmental pollution and geological hazard control programs can reduce the incidence of poverty;Coordinated development programs have the best effect on poverty reduction, and Wanzhou District is expected to achieve poverty reduction targets ahead of schedule.Research innovation: the theoretical model of ecological poverty reduction in the three Gorges Reservoir area is constructed, and the complex relationship and dynamic feedback mechanism among geological hazards, ecological environment and emigration poverty are revealed.Research value: put forward the systematic poverty reduction strategy of taking ecological environment protection and geological disaster mitigation into account in the three Gorges Reservoir area.
【作者單位】： 中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)(武漢)經(jīng)濟管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家自然科學(xué)基金項目“生態(tài)環(huán)境和地質(zhì)災(zāi)害孕貧機制與減貧策略研究——以三峽庫區(qū)為例”(71473231/G0305)的資助
【分類號】：D632.4;F323.8;X2

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