本文關鍵詞： 城市應急管理 評價 可靠性理論 故障樹分析(FTA) 可靠性優(yōu)化　出處：《北京林業(yè)大學》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：開展城市應急管理評價是提升城市應急能力的一項重要基礎性工作,建立科學合理的城市應急管理評價模式對于提高城市應急管理能力以及保障人民群眾生命財產(chǎn)安全具有十分重要的理論和現(xiàn)實意義。鑒于目前城市應急管理評價的研究大都沒有從系統(tǒng)可靠性的視角進行分析,本文以可靠性理論、應急管理理論以及故障樹分析法(FTA)等為基礎,創(chuàng)新性地提出一種基于可靠性的城市應急管理評價和優(yōu)化模式。首先,從系統(tǒng)可靠性的基本觀點出發(fā),借鑒以往城市應急能力評價指標體系的研究成果,解析城市應急管理體系的功能構成,提出了包括事前預防、緊急反應、災情控制和事后恢復4個分系統(tǒng)的城市應急管理功能體系。然后,運用可靠性理論構建了城市應急管理體系的可靠性模型,并結合故障樹實現(xiàn)了城市應急管理體系的定量分析。再次,運用可靠性分配理論,根據(jù)城市應急管理體系的特點構建了以等同分配法與最小工作量法相結合的可靠性優(yōu)化方法。最后,以北京市為例,在獲取基本單元可靠度數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上,詳述了北京市應急管理體系可靠度的計算過程,并根據(jù)北京市應急管理體系的可靠度目標值對體系進行了可靠度優(yōu)化。研究表明,基于可靠性的城市應急管理評價和優(yōu)化模式能夠在統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)的基礎上,實現(xiàn)對城市應急管理水平的定量評價,并能通過提高關鍵單元的可靠性實現(xiàn)體系的可靠度優(yōu)化。
[Abstract]:The evaluation of urban emergency management is an important basic work to enhance the ability of urban emergency response. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to establish a scientific and reasonable evaluation model for urban emergency management to improve the ability of urban emergency management and to ensure the safety of people's lives and property. In view of the present evaluation of urban emergency management, it is of great theoretical and practical significance. Most of the studies in this paper have not been analyzed from the point of view of system reliability. Based on reliability theory, emergency management theory and fault tree analysis method (FTAA), this paper proposes an innovative evaluation and optimization model of urban emergency management based on reliability. Based on the previous research results of the evaluation index system of urban emergency response capacity, this paper analyzes the functional composition of the urban emergency management system, and puts forward some suggestions, including pre-prevention and emergency response. Then, the reliability model of urban emergency management system is constructed by using the reliability theory. The quantitative analysis of urban emergency management system is realized based on the fault tree. Thirdly, the reliability distribution theory is used. According to the characteristics of the urban emergency management system, a reliability optimization method combining the equivalent allocation method with the minimum workload method is constructed. Finally, taking Beijing as an example, the reliability data of the basic unit are obtained. The calculation process of the reliability of the emergency management system in Beijing is described in detail, and the reliability of the emergency management system is optimized according to the reliability target value of the emergency management system in Beijing. The evaluation and optimization model of urban emergency management based on reliability can realize the quantitative evaluation of the level of urban emergency management on the basis of statistical data and optimize the reliability of the system by improving the reliability of key units.
【學位授予單位】：北京林業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：D63
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本文編號：1522772