本文關(guān)鍵詞： 災(zāi)害救援 災(zāi)害鏈 社會(huì)捐贈(zèng) 物資儲(chǔ)備 馬爾可夫鏈　出處：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：進(jìn)入21世紀(jì)以來(lái),特別是2004年印度洋海嘯之后,全球范圍內(nèi)災(zāi)害事件數(shù)量呈現(xiàn)逐年增加的趨勢(shì),災(zāi)害事件對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)造成的影響也是有增無(wú)減,2015年全年災(zāi)害事件在全球造成的直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失高達(dá)850億美元,并直接導(dǎo)致超過(guò)26 000人喪生,2016年上半年我國(guó)因?yàn)?zāi)死亡人數(shù)達(dá)到近千人,直接經(jīng)濟(jì)損失超過(guò)2500億元人民幣。與此同時(shí),由于經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展、生態(tài)環(huán)境的惡化等因素,災(zāi)害事件引發(fā)的災(zāi)害鏈,特別是次生災(zāi)害對(duì)人民生命財(cái)產(chǎn)安全構(gòu)成的威脅無(wú)形加劇,特別是地震、臺(tái)風(fēng)等大規(guī)模、高強(qiáng)度災(zāi)害事件往往引發(fā)滑坡、泥石流、暴雨、洪水等次生災(zāi)害,使得災(zāi)區(qū)環(huán)境進(jìn)一步惡化,救援難度增加。本文從災(zāi)害鏈的角度研究了災(zāi)前的物資儲(chǔ)備網(wǎng)絡(luò)構(gòu)建問(wèn)題,基于災(zāi)害時(shí)間線將災(zāi)前、原生災(zāi)害、次生災(zāi)害階段聯(lián)系在一起,同時(shí)考慮原生災(zāi)害和次生災(zāi)害對(duì)物資儲(chǔ)備決策的影響,并將災(zāi)后社會(huì)捐贈(zèng)物資納入傳統(tǒng)物資儲(chǔ)備網(wǎng)絡(luò),將其作為獨(dú)立的救援主體,構(gòu)建了兩階段的物資儲(chǔ)備模型,目標(biāo)是災(zāi)前物資儲(chǔ)備和災(zāi)后物資配送成本最小化。本文將災(zāi)害鏈的不同時(shí)間階段下的需求狀態(tài)、物資捐贈(zèng)狀態(tài)等參數(shù)構(gòu)建為馬爾可夫鏈,不同狀態(tài)下的參數(shù)以馬爾可夫概率轉(zhuǎn)移矩陣相互轉(zhuǎn)化,從而構(gòu)建了災(zāi)害鏈情形下的救援物資儲(chǔ)備網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型,最后通過(guò)MATLAB進(jìn)行求解。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),在該模型下可以顯著降低災(zāi)害救援的成本,同時(shí)對(duì)救援捐贈(zèng)行為的考量得到了對(duì)災(zāi)后受災(zāi)區(qū)域具有顯著影響的行政區(qū)域,但同時(shí)也發(fā)現(xiàn)隨著災(zāi)害強(qiáng)度的增加,社會(huì)捐贈(zèng)在災(zāi)后救援活動(dòng)中的作用具有一定的局限性,仍需發(fā)揮政府救援儲(chǔ)備物資主導(dǎo)作用。文章的物資儲(chǔ)備網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型為大規(guī)模災(zāi)害鏈情景下的物資救援提供了有效的理論和方法支持,而多主體的救援模型則能有效避免災(zāi)后多主體救援的無(wú)序性,提高救援活動(dòng)的效率。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, especially after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, the number of disaster events in the world has been increasing year by year, and the impact of disaster events on economic and social is also increasing. The global direct economic losses caused by the disaster events throughout 2015 amounted to $85 billion and resulted directly in the loss of more than 26,000 lives. In 2016, the death toll of disaster in our country reached nearly one thousand, and the direct economic loss exceeded 250 billion RMB. At the same time, due to the economic and social development, the deterioration of ecological environment and other factors. Disaster chain caused by disaster events, especially secondary disasters, the threat to the safety of people's lives and property, especially earthquake, typhoon and other large-scale, high-intensity disaster events often lead to landslides, debris flows. Rainstorm, flood and other secondary disasters, make the disaster area environment further deterioration, the difficulty of rescue increased. This paper studies the construction of pre-disaster material reserve network from the perspective of disaster chain, based on the disaster time line will be before the disaster. The primary and secondary disasters are linked together, considering the influence of the primary and secondary disasters on the material reserve decision-making, and bringing the post-disaster social donated materials into the traditional material reserve network. Taking it as an independent rescue subject, a two-stage material reserve model is constructed, the goal is to minimize the cost of pre-disaster material reserve and post-disaster material distribution. The parameters of material donation are constructed as Markov chain, and the parameters of different states are transformed to each other by Markov probability transfer matrix. Finally, the solution is solved by MATLAB. Through the research, it is found that the cost of disaster relief can be significantly reduced under the model. At the same time, the consideration of rescue donation behavior has been found to have a significant impact on the affected areas of the administrative areas, but also found that with the increase of disaster intensity. The role of social donation in post-disaster relief activities has certain limitations. It is still necessary to give full play to the leading role of the government reserve materials. The material reserve network model in this paper provides an effective theoretical and methodological support for the large-scale disaster chain situation. The multi-agent rescue model can effectively avoid the disorder of multi-agent rescue after disaster and improve the efficiency of rescue activities.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：D035

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