本文選題：德?tīng)柗普{(diào)查 + 技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)��； 參考：《中國(guó)科技論壇》2007年05期

【摘要】：本文利用我國(guó)信息、生物、新材料等9個(gè)領(lǐng)域的技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)調(diào)查結(jié)果,對(duì)咨詢(xún)專(zhuān)家人數(shù)、權(quán)重和評(píng)價(jià)意見(jiàn)的正態(tài)性等問(wèn)題進(jìn)行了討論。結(jié)果表明:熟悉專(zhuān)家的意見(jiàn)具有一定的代表性,一般來(lái)講,在技術(shù)預(yù)測(cè)中咨詢(xún)21～25位熟悉專(zhuān)家比較合適;如果咨詢(xún)專(zhuān)家的人數(shù)達(dá)到100人左右,根據(jù)專(zhuān)家熟悉程度進(jìn)行加權(quán)和等權(quán)所計(jì)算的技術(shù)重要性指數(shù)存在線(xiàn)性關(guān)系,其相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.9535,即加權(quán)與等權(quán)的計(jì)算結(jié)果差異不大。此外,所有領(lǐng)域?qū)＜业脑u(píng)價(jià)意見(jiàn)均服從正態(tài)分布,說(shuō)明專(zhuān)家的評(píng)價(jià)意見(jiàn)比較客觀。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the number of consultants, weights and normality of evaluation opinions are discussed by using the results of technical prediction in 9 fields of information, biology and new materials in China. The results show that the opinions of familiar experts are representative, generally speaking, it is more appropriate to consult 21 or 25 familiar experts in technical forecasting; if the number of consultants is about 100, There is a linear relationship between the technical importance index calculated by weighted weight and equal weight according to the degree of familiarity of experts, and the correlation coefficient is 0.9535, that is to say, there is little difference between the calculation results of weighted and equal weight. In addition, the evaluation opinions of experts in all fields are subject to normal distribution, indicating that the evaluation opinions of experts are more objective.
【作者單位】： 中國(guó)科學(xué)技術(shù)促進(jìn)發(fā)展研究中心
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：C932

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1 曉明;學(xué)習(xí)速度的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)[N];工人日?qǐng)?bào);2005年

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