牛背山隧道施工進度風險分析
發(fā)布時間：2018-12-11 08:52
【摘要】：本文依托牛背山隧道項目,將理論與實踐相結(jié)合,采用層次分析法、灰色理論等方法對對牛背山隧道進行施工進度風險管理分析,對牛背山施工進度風險因素管理采用定性分析,定量計算相結(jié)合的辦法,分析不利因素對項目計劃目標的不良作用。針對工期受不確定性因素作用而很難掌控的問題給予科學地解決方法,從而能夠采用更加通俗易懂、操作命令更加簡捷的仿真分析方法,制定更合理、更可行的目標計劃。本論文具體的研究意義如下:1.便于強化牛背山隧道工期風險管理;2.給決策者提供有效可信的施工進度管理依據(jù);3.提高我國鐵路隧道施工進度風險研究水平。筆者通過對牛背山隧道施工進度風險因素理論分析,量化模型構(gòu)建,實例分析驗證,將理論分析與實證分析相結(jié)合,證明了理論的可行性。因為無法準確判斷施工進度風險發(fā)生的時間,發(fā)生的結(jié)果,發(fā)生的原因,發(fā)生的種類,所以往往很難進行直接計量。因此在施工進度風險評價時要進行定性和定量相互結(jié)合的研究分析方法。本文采用層次法分析、熵權(quán)法分析、灰色理論法分析以達到量化研究分析的結(jié)果,確定牛背山隧道施工進度風險因素的發(fā)生概率,并對其排序。對兩種分析方法產(chǎn)生的結(jié)論進行對比,分析其中的差異,相互印證其結(jié)論的可靠性和準確性,最后選擇了五個關(guān)鍵風險因素提出了具有針對性的風險規(guī)避措施以及風險防范措施,為項目管理單位提供了可靠的理論依據(jù)。本文的研究思路與內(nèi)容如下:第一步,查閱施工進度風險分析的各類理論原理、研讀國內(nèi)外論文資料,研究成果,確定本次論文研究的理論模式,并為后文的實踐案例分析奠定基礎(chǔ)。第二步,實地調(diào)查牛背山項目實施情況,結(jié)合已有的理論研究篩選牛背上施工進度風險因素,確定清單列表,制定調(diào)查問卷。第三步,根據(jù)第一份調(diào)查問卷,結(jié)合1~9度指標制定第二份調(diào)查問卷,進行專家調(diào)查,通過客觀現(xiàn)實判斷,采用數(shù)學理論,采集數(shù)據(jù),對各層次賦予定量指標。第四步,引用數(shù)學理論,分析數(shù)據(jù)模型,計算結(jié)果進行研究分析,得出結(jié)論構(gòu)建施工進度風險分析量化模型并對其排序。方便管理者得到更加有效的信息,本章節(jié)還對六位專家進行并取長補短,采用群判法對多位專家的判斷進行了綜合排名,得出牛背山隧道施工進度風險因素綜合排名順序,方便專家為后期制定施工進度控制計劃,實現(xiàn)施工進度目標。確定牛背山施工進度風險因素排序,最終綜合確定排名前十的風險因素為:業(yè)主資金撥款的及時性,業(yè)主的管理能力,設(shè)計變更的頻率,施工單位資金的使用管理,施工進度安排的合理性,施工單位的管理能力,項目總包管理人員的素質(zhì)能力,監(jiān)理單位的管理素質(zhì)能力,地下水的影響,不良地質(zhì)及軟弱圍巖。第五步,采用灰色理論,重新采集數(shù)據(jù),驗證牛背山隧道六位專家對牛背山項目風險評價的關(guān)聯(lián)度、可信度。通過分析計算可以得出六位專家的判斷關(guān)聯(lián)度均在0.8以上,證明六位專家的主要觀點一致,可信度較高。同時通過灰色關(guān)聯(lián)理論得出各類風險相互間的聯(lián)系度,根據(jù)各因素相互間關(guān)聯(lián)度的大小順序排列得到排名前十位風險因素,為后期制定施工進度風險預防措施,加強施工進度風險過程性管理控制給出了較為準確的數(shù)據(jù)憑證。分析排名前十的風險因素為:施工單位的管理能力,監(jiān)理單位的管理素質(zhì)能力,業(yè)主的管理能力,設(shè)計變更的頻率,施工場地布置的影響,機械的故障率,機械的效率與性能情況,業(yè)主資金撥款的及時性,架子隊人員的能力素質(zhì),施工標準化程度。第六步,針對分析結(jié)果,確定風險應對措施,主要措施有:業(yè)主進度風險控制,施工單位進度風險控制,監(jiān)理單位進度風險控制,設(shè)計變更控制,牛背山隧道施工進度控制的經(jīng)濟措施。本文的研究結(jié)論有助于項目管理人員抓住項目實施過程中的主要矛盾,可以積極采取事情控制,做好預防措施,降低施工進度風險發(fā)生的概率,使牛背上隧道能夠按時完工,創(chuàng)造良好的經(jīng)濟價值、社會價值雖然不同隧道項目的施工進度風險組成不同,但是都可以采用相同的分析模式,因此本文的研究方向具有一定的通用價值。本文的研究主要應用在項目施工前對風險事件進行事情控制,制定防范措施。隨著項目建設(shè)的進行,各種事件的相互影響、干擾,風險因素的排序會不斷發(fā)生變化,因此在后期需要不斷的跟蹤分析,建立信息化管理平臺,完成動態(tài)跟蹤模擬。
[Abstract]:Based on the project of the back mountain tunnel of the cattle, this paper combines the theory with the practice, and uses the method of the analytic hierarchy process and the grey theory to carry out the risk management analysis of the construction progress of the back mountain tunnel, and the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation on the management of the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain of the cattle is adopted. The adverse effects of adverse factors on the project planning target are analyzed. Aiming at the problem that the construction period is difficult to be controlled by the factors of uncertainty, the method can be scientifically solved, so that a more convenient and easy-to-understand and operation command can be adopted to simulate and analyze the method, and a more reasonable and more feasible target plan can be developed. The research significance of this thesis is as follows: 1. It is convenient for strengthening the construction period risk management of the back mountain tunnel of the cattle; Provide the decision-maker with an effective and credible construction progress management basis; 3. To improve the research level of the construction progress of railway tunnel in China. The author has proved the feasibility of the theory by combining the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis with the theoretical analysis, the quantitative model construction and the case analysis and verification of the construction progress risk factors of the back mountain tunnel. Because it is not possible to accurately judge the time of the construction progress risk, the result of the occurrence, the type of occurrence and the type of occurrence, it is often difficult to conduct direct measurement. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative analysis and analysis method is to be carried out at the time of the construction progress risk evaluation. In this paper, by means of the analytic hierarchy, the entropy weight method and the grey theory method, the probability of the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain tunnel is determined and the order of the risk factors is determined. The results of the two analysis methods are compared, the difference is analyzed, the reliability and the accuracy of the conclusions are verified, the five key risk factors are selected, and the targeted risk avoidance measures and the risk prevention measures are selected. and provides a reliable theoretical basis for the project management unit. The research ideas and contents of this paper are as follows: first, refer to the various theoretical principles of the risk analysis of the construction progress, study the domestic and foreign papers and the research results, and determine the theoretical model of the thesis, and lay the foundation for the practice case analysis of the post-text. In the second step, on-site investigation of the implementation of the project on the back mountain of the cattle, combined with the existing theoretical research to screen the risk factors of the construction progress of the cow, determine the list of the list and formulate the questionnaire. In the third step, according to the first questionnaire, the second questionnaire is formulated in combination with the 1-9 degree index, and the expert investigation is carried out, and the quantitative indexes are given to each level through the objective reality judgment, the mathematical theory and the acquisition data. 4, referring to the mathematical theory, analyzing the data model, and carrying out research and analysis on the calculation result, and finally, the construction progress risk analysis quantitative model is constructed and the sequencing is carried out. It is convenient for managers to get more effective information. This section also makes a comprehensive ranking of six experts and makes a comprehensive ranking of the judgment of multi-level experts by using the group judgment method, so as to obtain the comprehensive evaluation sequence of the risk factors of the construction progress of the tunnel in the back mountain of the cattle. It is convenient for the expert to set up the construction progress control plan in the later stage and realize the construction progress target. It is determined that the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain of the cattle are sorted, and the risk factors of the top ten of the final comprehensive determination are as follows: the timeliness of the fund allocation of the owner, the management ability of the owner, the frequency of the design change, the utilization and management of the funds of the construction unit, and the rationality of the construction schedule, The management ability of the construction unit, the quality ability of the project general package management personnel, the management quality ability of the supervision unit, the influence of the groundwater, the bad geology and the weak surrounding rock. In the fifth step, the grey theory is adopted to re-acquire the data, and the degree and the reliability of the project risk evaluation of the cattle back mountain are verified by the six experts of the cattle back mountain tunnel. Through the analysis and calculation, it can be concluded that the judgment degree of six experts is more than 0.8, which proves that the main points of view of the six experts are consistent and the credibility is high. At the same time, the relation degree of all kinds of risks is obtained through the gray correlation theory, the top ten risk factors are obtained in order according to the size order of the degree of association among the factors, and the construction progress risk prevention measures are formulated in the later stage, The more accurate data voucher is given to strengthen the management control of the construction progress risk process. The risk factors of the top ten of the analysis are: the management ability of the construction unit, the management quality ability of the supervision unit, the management ability of the owner, the frequency of the design change, the influence of the layout of the construction site, the failure rate of the machine, the mechanical efficiency and the performance, the timeliness of the fund allocation of the owner, The ability and quality of the rack team and the degree of standardization of the construction. The sixth step is to determine the risk response measures for the analysis results. The main measures include the Owner's progress risk control, the construction unit's progress risk control, the supervision unit progress risk control, the design change control, and the economic measures for the construction progress control of the back mountain tunnel. The conclusions of this paper can help the project management personnel to grasp the main contradiction in the implementation of the project, can actively take the action control, do the preventive measures, reduce the probability of the risk of the construction progress, make the tunnel on the back of the cow be completed on time, and create good economic value, The social value is different from the construction progress risk of different tunnel projects, but the same analysis mode can be used, so the research direction of this paper has a certain general value. The main application of this paper is to control the risk events before the construction of the project, and to develop the preventive measures. With the construction of the project, the interaction, interference and risk factors of all kinds of events will change constantly. Therefore, the continuous tracking analysis is needed in the later stage, and the information management platform will be established to complete the dynamic tracking simulation.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U455.1
本文編號：2372264
[Abstract]:Based on the project of the back mountain tunnel of the cattle, this paper combines the theory with the practice, and uses the method of the analytic hierarchy process and the grey theory to carry out the risk management analysis of the construction progress of the back mountain tunnel, and the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation on the management of the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain of the cattle is adopted. The adverse effects of adverse factors on the project planning target are analyzed. Aiming at the problem that the construction period is difficult to be controlled by the factors of uncertainty, the method can be scientifically solved, so that a more convenient and easy-to-understand and operation command can be adopted to simulate and analyze the method, and a more reasonable and more feasible target plan can be developed. The research significance of this thesis is as follows: 1. It is convenient for strengthening the construction period risk management of the back mountain tunnel of the cattle; Provide the decision-maker with an effective and credible construction progress management basis; 3. To improve the research level of the construction progress of railway tunnel in China. The author has proved the feasibility of the theory by combining the theoretical analysis and the empirical analysis with the theoretical analysis, the quantitative model construction and the case analysis and verification of the construction progress risk factors of the back mountain tunnel. Because it is not possible to accurately judge the time of the construction progress risk, the result of the occurrence, the type of occurrence and the type of occurrence, it is often difficult to conduct direct measurement. Therefore, the qualitative and quantitative analysis and analysis method is to be carried out at the time of the construction progress risk evaluation. In this paper, by means of the analytic hierarchy, the entropy weight method and the grey theory method, the probability of the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain tunnel is determined and the order of the risk factors is determined. The results of the two analysis methods are compared, the difference is analyzed, the reliability and the accuracy of the conclusions are verified, the five key risk factors are selected, and the targeted risk avoidance measures and the risk prevention measures are selected. and provides a reliable theoretical basis for the project management unit. The research ideas and contents of this paper are as follows: first, refer to the various theoretical principles of the risk analysis of the construction progress, study the domestic and foreign papers and the research results, and determine the theoretical model of the thesis, and lay the foundation for the practice case analysis of the post-text. In the second step, on-site investigation of the implementation of the project on the back mountain of the cattle, combined with the existing theoretical research to screen the risk factors of the construction progress of the cow, determine the list of the list and formulate the questionnaire. In the third step, according to the first questionnaire, the second questionnaire is formulated in combination with the 1-9 degree index, and the expert investigation is carried out, and the quantitative indexes are given to each level through the objective reality judgment, the mathematical theory and the acquisition data. 4, referring to the mathematical theory, analyzing the data model, and carrying out research and analysis on the calculation result, and finally, the construction progress risk analysis quantitative model is constructed and the sequencing is carried out. It is convenient for managers to get more effective information. This section also makes a comprehensive ranking of six experts and makes a comprehensive ranking of the judgment of multi-level experts by using the group judgment method, so as to obtain the comprehensive evaluation sequence of the risk factors of the construction progress of the tunnel in the back mountain of the cattle. It is convenient for the expert to set up the construction progress control plan in the later stage and realize the construction progress target. It is determined that the risk factors of the construction progress of the back mountain of the cattle are sorted, and the risk factors of the top ten of the final comprehensive determination are as follows: the timeliness of the fund allocation of the owner, the management ability of the owner, the frequency of the design change, the utilization and management of the funds of the construction unit, and the rationality of the construction schedule, The management ability of the construction unit, the quality ability of the project general package management personnel, the management quality ability of the supervision unit, the influence of the groundwater, the bad geology and the weak surrounding rock. In the fifth step, the grey theory is adopted to re-acquire the data, and the degree and the reliability of the project risk evaluation of the cattle back mountain are verified by the six experts of the cattle back mountain tunnel. Through the analysis and calculation, it can be concluded that the judgment degree of six experts is more than 0.8, which proves that the main points of view of the six experts are consistent and the credibility is high. At the same time, the relation degree of all kinds of risks is obtained through the gray correlation theory, the top ten risk factors are obtained in order according to the size order of the degree of association among the factors, and the construction progress risk prevention measures are formulated in the later stage, The more accurate data voucher is given to strengthen the management control of the construction progress risk process. The risk factors of the top ten of the analysis are: the management ability of the construction unit, the management quality ability of the supervision unit, the management ability of the owner, the frequency of the design change, the influence of the layout of the construction site, the failure rate of the machine, the mechanical efficiency and the performance, the timeliness of the fund allocation of the owner, The ability and quality of the rack team and the degree of standardization of the construction. The sixth step is to determine the risk response measures for the analysis results. The main measures include the Owner's progress risk control, the construction unit's progress risk control, the supervision unit progress risk control, the design change control, and the economic measures for the construction progress control of the back mountain tunnel. The conclusions of this paper can help the project management personnel to grasp the main contradiction in the implementation of the project, can actively take the action control, do the preventive measures, reduce the probability of the risk of the construction progress, make the tunnel on the back of the cow be completed on time, and create good economic value, The social value is different from the construction progress risk of different tunnel projects, but the same analysis mode can be used, so the research direction of this paper has a certain general value. The main application of this paper is to control the risk events before the construction of the project, and to develop the preventive measures. With the construction of the project, the interaction, interference and risk factors of all kinds of events will change constantly. Therefore, the continuous tracking analysis is needed in the later stage, and the information management platform will be established to complete the dynamic tracking simulation.
【學位授予單位】：蘭州交通大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：U455.1
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