本文選題：項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn) + 文本挖掘技術(shù)��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：項(xiàng)目處于充滿不確定性要素的環(huán)境中,因此項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析工作成為項(xiàng)目管理中的重要組成部分。項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是將對項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)有影響作用的不確定性要素識(shí)別出來,并度量該要素變動(dòng)對項(xiàng)目造成的影響。在對項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析中,項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)多以文本的形式存在而且不易轉(zhuǎn)化成數(shù)字化的形式進(jìn)行分析。項(xiàng)目的文本資料中所代表的項(xiàng)目運(yùn)行條件的變化或者利益相關(guān)方的態(tài)度變化等預(yù)示著項(xiàng)目可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)的變動(dòng),可用來進(jìn)行項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析工作。本文利用文本挖掘技術(shù)來從海量的文本數(shù)據(jù)中識(shí)別出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素并進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量,包括設(shè)計(jì)基于文本挖掘的項(xiàng)目分析方法以及根據(jù)文本挖掘技術(shù)流程實(shí)現(xiàn)對項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的識(shí)別和度量工作。本文首先以項(xiàng)目利益相關(guān)方管理理論以及行動(dòng)者網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論在項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理中的研究為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析網(wǎng)絡(luò),界定了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素的范圍,將項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)化為項(xiàng)目網(wǎng)絡(luò)中結(jié)點(diǎn)變動(dòng)引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和由網(wǎng)絡(luò)連線變動(dòng)引起的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；結(jié)合文本挖掘技術(shù)的限制條件以及項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析任務(wù)的要求,通過對比分析給出了可用于識(shí)別項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的文本挖掘方案。然后設(shè)計(jì)了基于文本挖掘的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析的實(shí)現(xiàn)方法——以文本挖掘的技術(shù)框架為基礎(chǔ),分析各工作步驟應(yīng)該完成的任務(wù)以及完成任務(wù)的輸入、操作流程以及輸出；并且設(shè)計(jì)了項(xiàng)目要素變動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)度量方法。最后以實(shí)際項(xiàng)目為案例將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析結(jié)果與以往的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析結(jié)果進(jìn)行對比,驗(yàn)證了本文所得出的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法的可行性和有效性。本文利用文本挖掘技術(shù)實(shí)現(xiàn)了對項(xiàng)目文本資料中關(guān)于項(xiàng)目相關(guān)要素的變動(dòng)、項(xiàng)目利益相關(guān)方的態(tài)度變化、期望等項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行識(shí)別與度量,彌補(bǔ)了現(xiàn)有的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析方法只能通過問卷調(diào)查、訪談等手段來分析難以數(shù)據(jù)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。同時(shí),基于文本挖掘技術(shù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法可以實(shí)現(xiàn)自動(dòng)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過程,可以及時(shí)識(shí)別項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要素變動(dòng)并完成分析過程,讓管理者有更多的時(shí)間來制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對方案,提高了項(xiàng)目應(yīng)急管理能力。
[Abstract]:Project risk analysis is an important part of project management because it is in an environment full of uncertain elements. Project risk analysis is to identify the uncertain factors that have an impact on the realization of the project objectives and measure the impact of the change of the elements on the project. In the project risk analysis, the project risk mostly exists in the form of text and is not easy to be transformed into digital form. The change of project operating conditions or the attitude of stakeholders in the text of the project indicates the possible change of the project, which can be used to carry out the project risk analysis. In this paper, we use text mining technology to identify the project risk elements from the massive text data and measure the risk. It includes designing the project analysis method based on text mining and realizing the identification and measurement of project risk according to the technical flow of text mining. Firstly, based on the research of project stakeholder management theory and actor network theory in project risk management, the project risk analysis network is constructed, and the scope of project risk elements is defined. Transform the risk of the project into the risk caused by the node change in the project network and the risk caused by the change of the network connection, combine the restriction condition of the text mining technology and the requirement of the project risk analysis task, A text mining scheme which can be used to identify project risk is given through comparative analysis. Then, the paper designs a project risk analysis method based on text mining, which is based on the technical framework of text mining, analyzes the tasks that should be completed in each work step and the input, operation flow and output of the completed task. At the same time, the risk measurement method of the change of project elements is designed. Finally, the results of risk analysis are compared with the previous results of risk analysis, which verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the risk analysis method obtained in this paper. In this paper, we use text mining technology to identify and measure the project risk, such as the change of the project related elements, the change of the attitude of the project stakeholders, the expectation and so on. It makes up for the existing risk analysis methods only through questionnaire, interview and other means to analyze the risk that is difficult to data. At the same time, the risk identification method based on text mining technology can realize the automatic risk analysis process, identify the change of the project risk elements and complete the analysis process in time, so that the manager has more time to formulate the risk response plan. Improved project emergency management ability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU71

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本文編號：1985666