本文選題：項目風險 + 文本挖掘技術(shù)��； 參考：《山東大學》2015年碩士論文

【摘要】：項目處于充滿不確定性要素的環(huán)境中,因此項目風險分析工作成為項目管理中的重要組成部分。項目風險分析是將對項目目標實現(xiàn)有影響作用的不確定性要素識別出來,并度量該要素變動對項目造成的影響。在對項目風險分析中,項目風險多以文本的形式存在而且不易轉(zhuǎn)化成數(shù)字化的形式進行分析。項目的文本資料中所代表的項目運行條件的變化或者利益相關(guān)方的態(tài)度變化等預示著項目可能會出現(xiàn)的變動,可用來進行項目風險分析工作。本文利用文本挖掘技術(shù)來從海量的文本數(shù)據(jù)中識別出項目風險要素并進行風險度量,包括設(shè)計基于文本挖掘的項目分析方法以及根據(jù)文本挖掘技術(shù)流程實現(xiàn)對項目風險的識別和度量工作。本文首先以項目利益相關(guān)方管理理論以及行動者網(wǎng)絡(luò)理論在項目風險管理中的研究為基礎(chǔ),構(gòu)建了項目風險分析網(wǎng)絡(luò),界定了項目風險要素的范圍,將項目的風險轉(zhuǎn)化為項目網(wǎng)絡(luò)中結(jié)點變動引起的風險和由網(wǎng)絡(luò)連線變動引起的風險；結(jié)合文本挖掘技術(shù)的限制條件以及項目風險分析任務(wù)的要求,通過對比分析給出了可用于識別項目風險的文本挖掘方案。然后設(shè)計了基于文本挖掘的項目風險分析的實現(xiàn)方法——以文本挖掘的技術(shù)框架為基礎(chǔ),分析各工作步驟應(yīng)該完成的任務(wù)以及完成任務(wù)的輸入、操作流程以及輸出；并且設(shè)計了項目要素變動的風險度量方法。最后以實際項目為案例將風險分析結(jié)果與以往的風險分析結(jié)果進行對比,驗證了本文所得出的風險分析方法的可行性和有效性。本文利用文本挖掘技術(shù)實現(xiàn)了對項目文本資料中關(guān)于項目相關(guān)要素的變動、項目利益相關(guān)方的態(tài)度變化、期望等項目風險進行識別與度量,彌補了現(xiàn)有的風險分析方法只能通過問卷調(diào)查、訪談等手段來分析難以數(shù)據(jù)化的風險。同時,基于文本挖掘技術(shù)的風險識別方法可以實現(xiàn)自動化的風險分析過程,可以及時識別項目風險要素變動并完成分析過程,讓管理者有更多的時間來制定風險應(yīng)對方案,提高了項目應(yīng)急管理能力。
[Abstract]:Project risk analysis is an important part of project management because it is in an environment full of uncertain elements. Project risk analysis is to identify the uncertain factors that have an impact on the realization of the project objectives and measure the impact of the change of the elements on the project. In the project risk analysis, the project risk mostly exists in the form of text and is not easy to be transformed into digital form. The change of project operating conditions or the attitude of stakeholders in the text of the project indicates the possible change of the project, which can be used to carry out the project risk analysis. In this paper, we use text mining technology to identify the project risk elements from the massive text data and measure the risk. It includes designing the project analysis method based on text mining and realizing the identification and measurement of project risk according to the technical flow of text mining. Firstly, based on the research of project stakeholder management theory and actor network theory in project risk management, the project risk analysis network is constructed, and the scope of project risk elements is defined. Transform the risk of the project into the risk caused by the node change in the project network and the risk caused by the change of the network connection, combine the restriction condition of the text mining technology and the requirement of the project risk analysis task, A text mining scheme which can be used to identify project risk is given through comparative analysis. Then, the paper designs a project risk analysis method based on text mining, which is based on the technical framework of text mining, analyzes the tasks that should be completed in each work step and the input, operation flow and output of the completed task. At the same time, the risk measurement method of the change of project elements is designed. Finally, the results of risk analysis are compared with the previous results of risk analysis, which verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the risk analysis method obtained in this paper. In this paper, we use text mining technology to identify and measure the project risk, such as the change of the project related elements, the change of the attitude of the project stakeholders, the expectation and so on. It makes up for the existing risk analysis methods only through questionnaire, interview and other means to analyze the risk that is difficult to data. At the same time, the risk identification method based on text mining technology can realize the automatic risk analysis process, identify the change of the project risk elements and complete the analysis process in time, so that the manager has more time to formulate the risk response plan. Improved project emergency management ability.
【學位授予單位】：山東大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU71

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本文編號：1985666