本文選題：小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目　切入點(diǎn)：項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的高速發(fā)展,建筑工程項(xiàng)目的規(guī)模不斷擴(kuò)大。在工程建設(shè)過(guò)程中人員、設(shè)備、材料、環(huán)境等發(fā)生的變化;設(shè)計(jì)、方法、資金等方面出現(xiàn)的問(wèn)題均會(huì)影響建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的有效實(shí)施,會(huì)產(chǎn)生不同的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn),工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)一直伴隨著建設(shè)項(xiàng)目全過(guò)程,造成很大經(jīng)濟(jì)損失,工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文以LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象,運(yùn)用項(xiàng)目管理、項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理等多種的理論方法,對(duì)LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行了較系統(tǒng)深入的研究。首先,介紹了論文的選題背景、意義、國(guó)內(nèi)外相關(guān)研究現(xiàn)狀及相關(guān)理論基礎(chǔ)并對(duì)LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行簡(jiǎn)要介紹。其次,論文通過(guò)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別方法的選擇確定綜合運(yùn)用頭腦風(fēng)暴法、經(jīng)驗(yàn)值法、專家調(diào)查法,這樣既避免了使用單一方法識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而導(dǎo)致的片面性,又提高LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的可信度。采用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)綜合分析方法將LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素識(shí)別過(guò)程分為三個(gè)階段:第一階段是收集項(xiàng)目?jī)?nèi)外部資料及行業(yè)標(biāo)桿項(xiàng)目已存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素為本項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別做支撐;第二階段是運(yùn)用頭腦風(fēng)暴法、經(jīng)驗(yàn)值法初步識(shí)別出LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目五大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源即為環(huán)境風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。第三階段根據(jù)上文識(shí)別出的五大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源34個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素設(shè)計(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量表,邀請(qǐng)專家對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)量表進(jìn)行填寫(xiě),經(jīng)過(guò)專家四輪的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)測(cè)并由項(xiàng)目管理人員進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)處理形成最終的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單。再次,采用層次分析法對(duì)上文識(shí)別出的LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生概率、危害程度、重要性進(jìn)行評(píng)估,得出LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的I級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)6個(gè)、Ⅱ級(jí)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)13個(gè)、Ⅲ風(fēng)險(xiǎn)7個(gè);論文最后根據(jù)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的系統(tǒng)性、有效性、先進(jìn)性原則提出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃,并進(jìn)一步提出每一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的應(yīng)對(duì)措施以期為項(xiàng)目各參與主體提供切實(shí)可行的項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的建議。LB住宅小區(qū)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目是集技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、管理于一體的綜合性社會(huì)活動(dòng),項(xiàng)目各方面都存在著一定的不確定性,通過(guò)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究,保障項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的順利實(shí)現(xiàn)。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our country's economy, the scale of the construction project is expanding constantly. The changes of people, equipment, materials, environment, etc., in the process of construction, design, method, etc. The problems in capital and other aspects will affect the effective implementation of construction projects, and will result in different project risks. The project risks have been accompanied by the whole process of construction projects, resulting in great economic losses. The risk management of engineering project has certain practical significance. This article takes the LB residential district construction project as the research object, uses the project management, the project risk management and so on many kinds of theory methods, The risk management of LB residential district construction project is studied systematically and deeply. Firstly, the background and significance of the thesis are introduced. Domestic and foreign related research status and related theoretical basis and a brief introduction of LB residential district construction project. Secondly, through the project risk identification method to determine the comprehensive use of brainstorming method, empirical value method, expert investigation method, This avoids the one-sidedness of using a single method to identify risks. The risk factors identification process of LB residential district construction project is divided into three stages: the first stage is to collect the internal and external data of the project. And the existing risk factors of the benchmark project are supported by the risk identification of the project; The second stage is to use the brainstorming method and the experience value method to preliminarily identify the five major risk sources of the LB residential district construction project, namely, environmental risk, economic risk, management risk and policy risk. Technical risk. In the third stage, according to the 34 risk factors identified above, the risk scale is designed and experts are invited to fill in the risk scale. After four rounds of risk prediction by experts and data processing by project managers to form the final project risk list. Thirdly, using AHP to identify the probability of risk occurrence and the degree of hazard of the LB residential district construction project identified above. The importance of LB residential district construction project is evaluated, and it is concluded that there are 6 grade I risks, 13 grade 鈪，

本文編號(hào)：1643523