本文關(guān)鍵詞： 項目管理 風(fēng)電并網(wǎng) 供電系統(tǒng) 安全評估　出處：《華北電力大學(xué)》2015年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：在現(xiàn)代能源與環(huán)境雙重壓力下,現(xiàn)代電力格局發(fā)生了很大的變革,以風(fēng)能、太陽能為代表的清潔能源進入了大規(guī)模集中式開發(fā)為主,分布式開發(fā)為輔的階段。然而,由于風(fēng)電的間歇性和隨機性,使得風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)后對供電系統(tǒng)的安全管理帶來了巨大挑戰(zhàn),特別是在含高滲透率風(fēng)電的電網(wǎng),這一現(xiàn)象更為突出。本文分析了風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)對供電系統(tǒng)安全穩(wěn)定及經(jīng)濟運行的影響,并提出了應(yīng)對風(fēng)電大規(guī)模并網(wǎng)的供電系統(tǒng)安全管理措施。首先從風(fēng)電發(fā)展與風(fēng)電消納的角度分析了風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測技術(shù)對于促進現(xiàn)代風(fēng)電與供電系統(tǒng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的重要性；并從復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)安全理論的角度出發(fā),分析了含高滲透率風(fēng)電的供電系統(tǒng)的安全分析理論,闡述了可靠性評估理論、古典還原論和整體論方法以及復(fù)雜系統(tǒng)安全分析的自組織臨界理論和脆弱性評估技術(shù)。然后分析了風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)條件下供電系統(tǒng)安全管理現(xiàn)狀及存在的問題,從電壓穩(wěn)定性,電能質(zhì)量,供電可靠性等方面分析了風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)對供電系統(tǒng)的影響和風(fēng)電機組對電力系統(tǒng)運行狀況的響應(yīng),指明了雙饋異步風(fēng)電機組(DFIG)低電壓穿越技術(shù)(LVRT)與風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測技術(shù)對實現(xiàn)高滲透率風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)的重要性,為評估含風(fēng)電供電系統(tǒng)的安全性提供科學(xué)的評判準(zhǔn)則。為建立合理的指標(biāo)體系評價風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)后的供電系統(tǒng)安全等級及采取合理的安全性評估指標(biāo)提供依據(jù)。接著提出了基于層次分析法的含風(fēng)電供電系統(tǒng)的安全性評估方案,為風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)條件下的供電系統(tǒng)安全分析及安全管理措施的制定提供依據(jù)。同時,針對高滲透率風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)引起的供電系統(tǒng)安全性問題,以內(nèi)蒙鄂爾多斯市為實例,采用層次分析法評估安全性等級,根據(jù)評估結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)影響系統(tǒng)安全性的關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié),并提出了加強關(guān)鍵環(huán)節(jié)的一些方法,主要有：針對供電系統(tǒng)中電力設(shè)備可靠性問題,提出了基于小波神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電力設(shè)備溫度預(yù)測方法,從而實現(xiàn)供電系統(tǒng)電力設(shè)備的溫度預(yù)警機制,保證供電系統(tǒng)可靠運行；針對電源側(cè)風(fēng)電出力預(yù)測精度較低的問題,提出了基于多種群遺傳算法(MPGA)優(yōu)化的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)風(fēng)電功率預(yù)測算法,從而為制定合理的調(diào)度決策方案提供數(shù)據(jù)支撐；針對風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)后的供電系統(tǒng)調(diào)度問題,在探討傳統(tǒng)調(diào)度決策方法如機組組合的基礎(chǔ)上,引入了一種新型的含風(fēng)電供電系統(tǒng)的調(diào)度策略,即魯棒經(jīng)濟調(diào)度。最后,通過分析風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)后的安全隱患,從管理和技術(shù)兩方面提出了應(yīng)對風(fēng)電并網(wǎng)時的供電系統(tǒng)安全問題的措施,細(xì)分到政府、供電單位、風(fēng)電場等,為含高滲透率風(fēng)電的供電系統(tǒng)安全管理提供有效的對策與分析方法。
[Abstract]:Under the dual pressure of modern energy and environment, great changes have taken place in the pattern of modern electric power. The clean energy, represented by wind and solar energy, has entered the stage of large-scale centralized development, supplemented by distributed development. Because of the intermittent and randomness of wind power, it brings great challenges to the safety management of power supply system after wind power is connected to the grid, especially in the power grid with high permeability wind power. This phenomenon is more prominent. This paper analyzes the influence of wind power grid connection on the safety, stability and economic operation of power supply system. The safety management measures of power supply system for large-scale wind power connection are put forward. Firstly, the importance of wind power prediction technology in promoting the coordinated development of modern wind power and power supply system is analyzed from the point of view of wind power development and wind power consumption. From the point of view of complex system safety theory, the safety analysis theory of power supply system with high permeability wind power is analyzed, and the reliability evaluation theory is expounded. Classical reductionism and holism, self-organizing criticality theory and vulnerability assessment technique for safety analysis of complex systems are presented. Then, the current situation and existing problems of power supply system safety management under grid-connected wind power system are analyzed, and the voltage stability is analyzed. The influence of wind power grid connection on power supply system and the response of wind turbine to power system operation condition are analyzed in aspects of power quality and power supply reliability. The importance of low voltage traversing technology (LVRTT) and wind power prediction technology for high permeability wind power grid is pointed out. It provides a scientific criterion for evaluating the safety of power supply system with wind power, and provides the basis for establishing a reasonable index system to evaluate the safety grade of power supply system after wind power is connected to the grid and to adopt reasonable safety evaluation index. The safety evaluation scheme of wind power supply system based on Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is proposed. It provides the basis for safety analysis and safety management measures of power supply system under the condition of wind power grid connection. At the same time, aiming at the safety problems of power supply system caused by high permeability wind power grid connection, the paper takes Ordos City, Inner Mongolia, as an example. According to the evaluation results, the key links affecting the safety of the system are found, and some methods to strengthen the key links are put forward, including: aiming at the reliability problem of power equipment in power supply system, The temperature prediction method of power equipment based on wavelet neural network is put forward in order to realize the temperature warning mechanism of power equipment in power supply system and ensure the reliable operation of power supply system. A BP neural network wind power prediction algorithm based on multi-population genetic algorithm (MPGA) is proposed, which can provide data support for making a reasonable scheduling decision scheme. Based on the discussion of traditional dispatching decision methods such as unit combination, this paper introduces a new dispatching strategy of wind power supply system, that is, robust economic dispatch. From the aspects of management and technology, this paper puts forward some measures to deal with the safety problems of power supply system when wind power is connected to the grid, which can be divided into government, power supply units, wind farms, etc. It provides effective countermeasures and analysis methods for the safety management of power supply system with high permeability wind power.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華北電力大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TM614

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