本文關(guān)鍵詞： 水產(chǎn)品 冷鏈物流需求 組合預(yù)測(cè)模型 IOWHA算子 趨勢(shì)外推法　出處：《昆明理工大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著人們經(jīng)濟(jì)生活水平的提高,水產(chǎn)品豐富的營(yíng)養(yǎng)價(jià)值獲得消費(fèi)者的喜愛(ài),并且水產(chǎn)品的安全質(zhì)量也受到消費(fèi)者不斷關(guān)注,冷鏈物流的出現(xiàn)恰恰能為水產(chǎn)品提供質(zhì)量保證,受到人們的歡迎。江蘇具有非常優(yōu)越的地理?xiàng)l件,是全國(guó)唯數(shù)不多靠江靠海的省份,水產(chǎn)品資源特別豐富,冷鏈物流市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展?jié)摿薮�。因�?對(duì)水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流需求進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),對(duì)江蘇省水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流行業(yè)的健康發(fā)展具有重要的理論價(jià)值和實(shí)踐價(jià)值。本文闡述了水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流需求的研究背景與意義,并介紹了國(guó)內(nèi)外冷鏈物流研究的現(xiàn)狀,分析了江蘇省水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀和優(yōu)劣勢(shì)。用Pearson相關(guān)系數(shù)對(duì)水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流需求的影響因素進(jìn)行分析,選出與水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流需求的相關(guān)性較大的影響因素,并以此建立預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo)體系。通過(guò)對(duì)冷鏈物流需求預(yù)測(cè)方法的研究,分別選取了多元線性回歸理論和灰色預(yù)測(cè)理論,三次指數(shù)平滑法建立預(yù)測(cè)模型,并通過(guò)IOWHA算子組成組合預(yù)測(cè)模型。并將單一的預(yù)測(cè)法與基于IOWHA算子組合預(yù)測(cè)法進(jìn)行比較,比較的結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)基于IOWHA算子組合預(yù)測(cè)模型結(jié)果比單一預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果更準(zhǔn)確。并用趨勢(shì)外推法對(duì)江蘇省未來(lái)水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流需求進(jìn)行了預(yù)測(cè),預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示江蘇省水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流需求會(huì)逐年上升,因此江蘇省要采取政策與措施加大對(duì)水產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流的支持力度。
[Abstract]:With the improvement of people's economic standard of living, the rich nutrition value of aquatic products has been loved by consumers, and the safety and quality of aquatic products have been paid more and more attention by consumers. The appearance of cold chain logistics can provide quality assurance for aquatic products, and it is welcomed by people. Jiangsu has very superior geographical conditions, it is the only province in the country that only depends on the river and sea, and the aquatic product resources are especially rich. The development potential of cold-chain logistics market is huge. Therefore, the demand of cold-chain logistics for aquatic products is predicted. It has important theoretical and practical value for the healthy development of aquatic product cold chain logistics industry in Jiangsu Province. This paper expounds the research background and significance of aquatic product cold chain logistics demand. The current situation of cold chain logistics research at home and abroad is also introduced. This paper analyzes the development status and advantages and disadvantages of aquatic product cold chain logistics in Jiangsu Province, and analyzes the influencing factors of aquatic product cold chain logistics demand with Pearson correlation coefficient. This paper selects the influential factors which are related to the logistics demand of the cold chain of aquatic products, and establishes the forecast index system. Through the research on the forecasting method of the demand of the cold chain logistics. The multivariate linear regression theory and grey prediction theory are selected, and the cubic exponential smoothing method is used to establish the prediction model. The combination prediction model is constructed by IOWHA operator, and the single prediction method is compared with the combination prediction method based on IOWHA operator. The results of comparison show that the combined forecasting model based on IOWHA operator is more accurate than the single one. The trend extrapolation method is used to predict the future logistics demand of aquatic products in Jiangsu Province. The forecast results show that the demand of aquatic product cold chain logistics will increase year by year, so Jiangsu Province should adopt policies and measures to strengthen the support of aquatic product cold chain logistics.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：昆明理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F326.6

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