【摘要】：本文研究的對象是一類指標(biāo)種類較多而備選方案相對較少的多屬性決策問題。由于指標(biāo)類型和數(shù)量較多,決策者對于指標(biāo)的權(quán)重確定存在不確定性,這些不確定既來自現(xiàn)實問題的復(fù)雜性,也來自決策者選擇的模糊性與隨機性。目前已有的研究主要是將權(quán)重不確定信息轉(zhuǎn)化為相對確定的信息(如轉(zhuǎn)化為區(qū)間等),硬性地消除了不確定,從而導(dǎo)致對于方案最優(yōu)選擇或者方案排序的穩(wěn)健性都無從分析。本文從方案排序的視角出發(fā),研究在所有可能存在的權(quán)重組合下,方案的相互占優(yōu)關(guān)系;定義了方案占優(yōu)和占優(yōu)概率用于刻畫不確定權(quán)重信息下的決策風(fēng)險,并且提出了方案的全排序概率和相關(guān)性質(zhì)。然后,給出了占優(yōu)概率和排序概率的計算方法。本文的研究思路為由于不確定權(quán)重帶來的決策穩(wěn)健性和風(fēng)險評估提供了分析途徑和方法。最后,本文將該方法應(yīng)用到某遠洋集團的港口選擇評估當(dāng)中。
[Abstract]:The object of this paper is a kind of multi-attribute decision making problem, which has more kinds of indexes and fewer alternatives. Because of the large number and types of indicators, the decision makers have uncertainty about the weights of the indicators. These uncertainties come from the complexity of the practical problems and the fuzziness and randomness of the decision makers' choices. At present, the existing research mainly transforms the uncertain information of weight into the information of relative certainty (such as the interval etc.), which rigidly eliminates the uncertainty, which leads to the difficulty of analyzing the robustness of the optimal choice of the scheme or the ranking of the scheme. In this paper, from the point of view of scheme ranking, we study the mutual dominance of schemes under all possible weight combinations, and define the probability of scheme dominance and dominant probability to describe the decision risk under uncertain weight information. The total sort probability and related properties of the scheme are also proposed. Then, the calculation methods of dominant probability and ranking probability are given. The research ideas in this paper provide an analytical approach and method for decision robustness and risk assessment due to uncertain weights. Finally, this method is applied to the port selection evaluation of an ocean-going group.
【作者單位】： 合肥工業(yè)大學(xué)管理學(xué)院;
【基金】：國家科技支撐計劃(2014BAH27F00) 國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(71471053)
【分類號】：C934

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本文編號：2194456