本文關(guān)鍵詞： 模糊 模糊規(guī)避 參考信息 比較　出處：《山東師范大學(xué)》2011年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：1961年,Ellsberg將當(dāng)人們同時(shí)面對(duì)模糊概率和精確概率時(shí),傾向于選擇精確概率的現(xiàn)象稱為模糊規(guī)避。此后數(shù)十年中,學(xué)者們對(duì)這一特殊的決策現(xiàn)象進(jìn)行了大量的研究。其中,多數(shù)學(xué)者認(rèn)為“模糊是由相關(guān)信息的缺失所造成的,缺失信息較多,則模糊程度較大,熟悉程度自然相對(duì)較低”,并以此作為模糊的操作定義。進(jìn)入上世紀(jì)90年代,Tversky通過對(duì)經(jīng)典的模糊規(guī)避實(shí)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行改進(jìn),提出了“相對(duì)無知”理論作為對(duì)模糊規(guī)避現(xiàn)象的解釋。但是,“相對(duì)無知”理論在實(shí)驗(yàn)中只是將兩種具有不同參考信息數(shù)量的選項(xiàng)區(qū)分為模糊和精確,沒有回答當(dāng)不同選項(xiàng)具有的參考信息數(shù)量之間的差異達(dá)到什么水平才會(huì)導(dǎo)致模糊規(guī)避現(xiàn)象的出現(xiàn)。 為了說明參考信息數(shù)量對(duì)模糊規(guī)避的影響,本實(shí)驗(yàn)設(shè)計(jì)出三個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)其進(jìn)行研究。實(shí)驗(yàn)一中,分別在三種不同的呈現(xiàn)條件下驗(yàn)證了模糊規(guī)避現(xiàn)象,考察了中國被試是否在不同呈現(xiàn)方式條件下均會(huì)表現(xiàn)出“模糊規(guī)避”現(xiàn)象；實(shí)驗(yàn)二通過因?yàn)閰⒖夹畔l目數(shù)量不同控制參考信息數(shù)量,分別在有比較和無比較的條件下直接研究參考信息數(shù)量對(duì)決策的影響；在實(shí)驗(yàn)三通過混合使用對(duì)象呈現(xiàn)方式和數(shù)字呈現(xiàn)方式對(duì)參考信息的數(shù)量進(jìn)行間接的控制,觀察了同時(shí)使用多種呈現(xiàn)方式對(duì)模糊規(guī)避的影響。經(jīng)過采用Z檢驗(yàn)、卡方檢驗(yàn)和單因素方差分析等多種統(tǒng)計(jì)方法對(duì)實(shí)驗(yàn)所獲得的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行分析后發(fā)現(xiàn)： (1)在決策過程中,參考信息的數(shù)量決定了模糊規(guī)避的出現(xiàn)。當(dāng)在兩個(gè)具有不同參考信息數(shù)量的選項(xiàng)之間進(jìn)行選擇時(shí),只有兩個(gè)選項(xiàng)的參考信息差異達(dá)到一定程度時(shí)才會(huì)出現(xiàn)模糊規(guī)避；當(dāng)在多個(gè)選項(xiàng)之間進(jìn)行決策時(shí),參考信息數(shù)量最多的一項(xiàng)選擇的人數(shù)也最多。 (2)呈現(xiàn)方式對(duì)模糊規(guī)避的出項(xiàng)同樣有重要影響。被試對(duì)數(shù)字呈現(xiàn)方式和對(duì)象呈現(xiàn)方式的敏感程度不同,當(dāng)兩個(gè)呈現(xiàn)方式同時(shí)出現(xiàn)在決策任務(wù)中時(shí),被試會(huì)將利用對(duì)象呈現(xiàn)方式呈現(xiàn)的信息作為決策依據(jù)。 (3)呈現(xiàn)方式和參考信息數(shù)量對(duì)模糊規(guī)避的出現(xiàn)都存在影響,但是二者對(duì)模糊規(guī)避所產(chǎn)生的作用大小不同,參考信息有重要的決定性作用。 (4)參考信息數(shù)量與被試在該選項(xiàng)上的信心水平之間沒有表現(xiàn)出顯著的相關(guān)。
[Abstract]:In 1961 Ellsberg referred to the phenomenon that people tend to choose the exact probability as fuzzy circumvention when they face both fuzzy probability and accurate probability. In the following decades, scholars have done a lot of research on this special decision making phenomenon. Most scholars believe that "ambiguity is caused by the absence of relevant information. If there is more missing information, the degree of ambiguity is greater." Familiarity is naturally relatively low, "and as a fuzzy definition of operation. In -10s, Tversky improved on the classic fuzzy circumvention experiment." This paper puts forward the theory of "relative ignorance" as an explanation of the phenomenon of fuzzy circumvention. However, in the experiment, the theory of "relative ignorance" only distinguishes two kinds of options with different quantities of reference information as fuzzy and accurate. No answer is given as to the level at which the difference in the number of references in different options will lead to fuzzy circumvention. In order to illustrate the effect of the quantity of reference information on fuzzy circumvention, three experiments were designed to study it. In experiment 1, the phenomenon of fuzzy circumvention was verified under three different presentation conditions. This paper investigates whether the Chinese subjects will show "fuzzy circumvention" phenomenon under different presentation modes. Experiment 2 controls the reference information quantity by using different reference information items. The influence of reference information quantity on decision making is studied directly under the condition of comparison and no comparison respectively. In experiment 3, indirect control of reference information quantity is carried out through mixed use of object presentation mode and digital presentation mode. The effects of multiple presentation methods on fuzzy circumvention are observed. The statistical data obtained from the experiments are analyzed by using Z test, chi-square test and single factor variance analysis. In the decision-making process, the number of reference information determines the occurrence of fuzzy circumvention. When choosing between two options with different quantities of reference information, Only when the difference of reference information between the two options reaches a certain degree, there will be fuzzy circumvention, and when the decision is made between multiple options, the number of people who have the largest number of reference information is also the most. The sensitivity of the subjects to the digital presentation and the object rendering is different, when the two presentation methods appear in the decision-making task, The participants will use the information presented by the object presentation as the basis for decision-making. (3) the appearance of fuzzy circumvention is influenced by the presentation mode and the quantity of reference information, but they have different effects on fuzzy circumvention, and reference information plays an important and decisive role in the emergence of fuzzy circumvention. (4) there was no significant correlation between the number of reference information and the level of confidence in this option.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2011
【分類號(hào)】：C934

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本文編號(hào)：1519104