本文選題：成本估算　切入點：神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡　出處：《南京理工大學》2012年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：利用現(xiàn)代信息系統(tǒng)進行項目管理,成本估算起到非常重要的作用,也是項目成本管理的重要基礎,一個項目成本管理的成功與否,成本估算起到了決定性的作用。在現(xiàn)有的軟件項目成本管理領域中,最主要的問題是軟件成本估算方法估算不準確,主觀經(jīng)驗影響較大。目前沒有一個有效的方法,能夠很好的彌補在軟件成本估算中的缺陷。 本分首先介紹了軟件項目成本估算的研究背景和意義,分析了國內(nèi)軟件項目成本管理的研究現(xiàn)狀與存在的問題。再介紹了現(xiàn)有的軟件項目成本估算方法和軟件項目成本管理的概念,并分析了每種方法的特點,總結了現(xiàn)有方法的缺陷。并針對軟件項目成本估算不確定性因素多、主觀因素影響較大的特點,提出了模糊理論與神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡方法結合的軟件項目成本估算方法,并針對估算結果存在偏差的問題,采用主成分分析法和模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡與PCA方法結合法對估算結果進行優(yōu)化,進一步使估算結果更為精確,減少因為訓練數(shù)據(jù)的局限性而引起的結果偏差。通過以上兩個步驟的研究工作,建立自己的軟件項目成本估算模型,并采用COCOMO模型下的60組典型軟件項目訓練數(shù)據(jù)集對估算模型進行多次訓練優(yōu)化,最終形成本文的估算系統(tǒng)。 在建立神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡估算模型的基礎上,對NJLK國際機場二期信息工程項目的軟件項目開發(fā)工作進行了成本估算,包括軟件開發(fā)工作量估算、軟件規(guī)模預估、軟件開發(fā)工作進度估算和軟件項目總成本估算。針對多次估算的結果,結合本文提出的主成分分析法、模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡、PCA結合的方法對估算結果進行了優(yōu)化。研究表明,該模型能獲得較準確和快速的估算軟件項目的開發(fā)成本,為機場信息工程項目的過程管理提供了重要的依據(jù)。
[Abstract]:Using modern information system for project management, cost estimation plays a very important role, is also an important foundation of project cost management, a project cost management success, Cost estimation plays a decisive role. In the current software project cost management field, the most important problem is that the software cost estimation method is inaccurate, subjective experience has a greater impact. It can make up for the defects in software cost estimation. This paper first introduces the research background and significance of software project cost estimation. This paper analyzes the present research situation and existing problems of domestic software project cost management, introduces the existing software project cost estimation methods and the concept of software project cost management, and analyzes the characteristics of each method. This paper summarizes the defects of the existing methods, and puts forward a software project cost estimation method which combines fuzzy theory with neural network method, aiming at the characteristics that there are many uncertain factors and great influence of subjective factors in software project cost estimation. Aiming at the problem of the deviation of the estimation results, the method of combining principal component analysis and fuzzy neural network with PCA method is used to optimize the estimation results, which makes the estimation results more accurate. To reduce the result deviation caused by the limitation of training data. Through the research work of the above two steps, we establish our own software project cost estimation model, The training data set of 60 typical software projects under COCOMO model is used to optimize the estimation model for many times, and finally the estimation system of this paper is formed. Based on the neural network model, the cost of the software project development of the second phase information project of NJLK International Airport is estimated, including the software development workload estimation, the software scale estimation. The software development schedule and the total cost of the software project are estimated. According to the results of multiple estimates and the principal component analysis method proposed in this paper, the fuzzy neural network combined with PCA method is used to optimize the estimation results. The model can estimate the development cost of the software project accurately and quickly, and provides an important basis for the process management of the airport information engineering project.
【學位授予單位】：南京理工大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2012
【分類號】：F562.6;F49;F224

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本文編號：1624333