財(cái)政赤字的國(guó)內(nèi)需求效應(yīng)分析
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-06-19 04:24
【摘要】：本文從我國(guó)在不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢(shì)下政府所采取的財(cái)政政策措施入手,發(fā)現(xiàn)在調(diào)控宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)、穩(wěn)定我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的實(shí)踐過(guò)程中,除個(gè)別年份國(guó)家財(cái)政有少量結(jié)余外,其余各年財(cái)政赤字基本呈現(xiàn)一種常態(tài)化的經(jīng)濟(jì)現(xiàn)象,且赤字規(guī)�？傮w呈現(xiàn)增長(zhǎng)之勢(shì)。與赤字規(guī)模總體增長(zhǎng)相對(duì)應(yīng)的是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)了穩(wěn)步健康發(fā)展,國(guó)內(nèi)需求逐年上升,消費(fèi)需求和投資需求成為推動(dòng)GDP增長(zhǎng)的重要組成部分,表現(xiàn)為消費(fèi)率和投資率始終維持在較高的水平。但從整個(gè)發(fā)展歷程來(lái)看,雖然消費(fèi)和投資都處在一個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)增長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程中,其消費(fèi)率卻大致呈現(xiàn)出一個(gè)向下的變動(dòng)趨勢(shì),相反,其投資率卻運(yùn)行在上升通道中。消費(fèi)需求和投資需求的不同步發(fā)展為我們找到了國(guó)內(nèi)總需求結(jié)構(gòu)失衡的原因；同時(shí),也說(shuō)明,我國(guó)所實(shí)行的財(cái)政政策對(duì)刺激消費(fèi)需求和投資需求是存在差異的,這種差異除了來(lái)自赤字支出的財(cái)政政策所執(zhí)行的側(cè)重不同,更多的可能還是由于財(cái)政政策對(duì)消費(fèi)需求和投資需求的影響效應(yīng)存在差異所導(dǎo)致的。 從理論效應(yīng)的角度分析,財(cái)政赤字在其形成過(guò)程中具有明顯的乘數(shù)效應(yīng)、擠入/擠出效應(yīng)和預(yù)期效應(yīng)。通過(guò)促進(jìn)政府本身的消費(fèi)和投資需求、引導(dǎo)利率間接作用經(jīng)濟(jì)、引致居民消費(fèi)和私人投資,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)需求的促進(jìn)作用。同時(shí),政策作用力度的失衡容易引發(fā)國(guó)內(nèi)需求的結(jié)構(gòu)性矛盾,赤字規(guī)模的擴(kuò)大一方面可能誘發(fā)通貨膨脹,另一方面會(huì)降低市場(chǎng)對(duì)未來(lái)的預(yù)期,這些都會(huì)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)總需求產(chǎn)生抑制作用。為了說(shuō)明赤字的存在對(duì)消費(fèi)需求和投資需求的實(shí)際影響效應(yīng),通過(guò)建立VAR模型進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,并利用Granger檢驗(yàn)了赤字率與通脹率之間的因果關(guān)系。 從實(shí)證研究結(jié)論來(lái)看,我國(guó)財(cái)政赤字的存在雖然短期內(nèi)可以成為推動(dòng)社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要手段,并且不會(huì)引起通貨膨脹的上漲,更不會(huì)引發(fā)市場(chǎng)利率水平的提升。但是從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,由于其反經(jīng)濟(jì)周期的形成特性,加上其本身就是財(cái)政收不抵支的負(fù)面結(jié)果,使得它容易誘發(fā)通貨膨脹的較大波動(dòng),并且在長(zhǎng)期,赤字對(duì)社會(huì)消費(fèi)需求的作用效果并不明顯,更多的是對(duì)投資需求產(chǎn)生促進(jìn)作用,導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)需求和投資需求的不平衡發(fā)展,引發(fā)我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)需求的結(jié)構(gòu)性扭曲問(wèn)題。所以在充分吸收、借鑒國(guó)外發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家和地區(qū)實(shí)踐經(jīng)驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上,提出了在短期要保持適度可控的財(cái)政赤字,而在長(zhǎng)期則要堅(jiān)持平衡財(cái)政收支,降低財(cái)政風(fēng)險(xiǎn),以此平衡國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)需求,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的財(cái)政赤字發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。
[Abstract]:Starting with the fiscal policy measures taken by the government under different economic development situations, this paper finds that in the process of regulating and controlling the macro economy and stabilizing the economic development of our country, except for a small amount of national fiscal balance in a few years, the fiscal deficit in other years basically presents a normal economic phenomenon, and the scale of the deficit generally shows an increasing trend. Corresponding to the overall growth of deficit scale, China's economy has achieved steady and healthy development, domestic demand has increased year by year, consumer demand and investment demand have become an important part of promoting GDP growth, showing that the consumption rate and investment rate have always been maintained at a high level. However, from the point of view of the whole development process, although consumption and investment are in the process of dynamic growth, the consumption rate shows a downward trend, on the contrary, the investment rate is running in the upward channel. The non-synchronous development of consumer demand and investment demand has found the reason for the imbalance of domestic aggregate demand structure. At the same time, it also shows that there are differences in the fiscal policy to stimulate consumer demand and investment demand. in addition to the different emphasis on the implementation of fiscal policy from deficit expenditure, it is more likely to be caused by the differences in the impact of fiscal policy on consumer demand and investment demand. From the point of view of theoretical effect, the fiscal deficit has obvious multiplier effect, extrusion effect and expected effect in the process of its formation. By promoting the consumption and investment demand of the government itself, guiding the interest rate to indirectly act on the economy, leading to the consumption and private investment of residents, and realizing the promoting effect of domestic demand. At the same time, the imbalance of policy role can easily lead to the structural contradiction of domestic demand. on the one hand, the expansion of deficit scale may induce inflation, on the other hand, it will reduce the market expectations for the future, which will inhibit domestic aggregate demand. In order to explain the actual effect of deficit on consumer demand and investment demand, the empirical analysis is carried out by establishing VAR model, and the causality between deficit rate and inflation rate is tested by Granger. From the empirical conclusion, although the existence of fiscal deficit in China can become the main means to promote social and economic development in the short term, and will not lead to the rise of inflation, let alone the rise of market interest rates. However, in the long run, because of the formation characteristics of its anti-economic cycle, coupled with its own negative result of fiscal incapacity, it is easy to induce great fluctuations in inflation, and in the long run, the effect of deficit on social consumer demand is not obvious, more on the promotion of investment demand, resulting in the unbalanced development of consumer demand and investment demand. It leads to the structural distortion of domestic demand in China. Therefore, on the basis of fully absorbing and drawing lessons from the practical experience of foreign developed countries and regions, this paper puts forward the development trend of fiscal deficit, which should maintain moderately controllable fiscal deficit in the short term, and persist in balancing fiscal revenue and expenditure and reducing fiscal risk in the long run, so as to balance the domestic market demand and promote the sustainable development of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F812.4
本文編號(hào)：2502087
[Abstract]:Starting with the fiscal policy measures taken by the government under different economic development situations, this paper finds that in the process of regulating and controlling the macro economy and stabilizing the economic development of our country, except for a small amount of national fiscal balance in a few years, the fiscal deficit in other years basically presents a normal economic phenomenon, and the scale of the deficit generally shows an increasing trend. Corresponding to the overall growth of deficit scale, China's economy has achieved steady and healthy development, domestic demand has increased year by year, consumer demand and investment demand have become an important part of promoting GDP growth, showing that the consumption rate and investment rate have always been maintained at a high level. However, from the point of view of the whole development process, although consumption and investment are in the process of dynamic growth, the consumption rate shows a downward trend, on the contrary, the investment rate is running in the upward channel. The non-synchronous development of consumer demand and investment demand has found the reason for the imbalance of domestic aggregate demand structure. At the same time, it also shows that there are differences in the fiscal policy to stimulate consumer demand and investment demand. in addition to the different emphasis on the implementation of fiscal policy from deficit expenditure, it is more likely to be caused by the differences in the impact of fiscal policy on consumer demand and investment demand. From the point of view of theoretical effect, the fiscal deficit has obvious multiplier effect, extrusion effect and expected effect in the process of its formation. By promoting the consumption and investment demand of the government itself, guiding the interest rate to indirectly act on the economy, leading to the consumption and private investment of residents, and realizing the promoting effect of domestic demand. At the same time, the imbalance of policy role can easily lead to the structural contradiction of domestic demand. on the one hand, the expansion of deficit scale may induce inflation, on the other hand, it will reduce the market expectations for the future, which will inhibit domestic aggregate demand. In order to explain the actual effect of deficit on consumer demand and investment demand, the empirical analysis is carried out by establishing VAR model, and the causality between deficit rate and inflation rate is tested by Granger. From the empirical conclusion, although the existence of fiscal deficit in China can become the main means to promote social and economic development in the short term, and will not lead to the rise of inflation, let alone the rise of market interest rates. However, in the long run, because of the formation characteristics of its anti-economic cycle, coupled with its own negative result of fiscal incapacity, it is easy to induce great fluctuations in inflation, and in the long run, the effect of deficit on social consumer demand is not obvious, more on the promotion of investment demand, resulting in the unbalanced development of consumer demand and investment demand. It leads to the structural distortion of domestic demand in China. Therefore, on the basis of fully absorbing and drawing lessons from the practical experience of foreign developed countries and regions, this paper puts forward the development trend of fiscal deficit, which should maintain moderately controllable fiscal deficit in the short term, and persist in balancing fiscal revenue and expenditure and reducing fiscal risk in the long run, so as to balance the domestic market demand and promote the sustainable development of the economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F812.4
【共引文獻(xiàn)】
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1 閆婷;中國(guó)財(cái)政民生支出規(guī)模與結(jié)構(gòu)的優(yōu)化研究[D];遼寧大學(xué);2013年
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相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條
1 夏旭;財(cái)政支出對(duì)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響研究[D];西南交通大學(xué);2013年
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，本文編號(hào)：2502087
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